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March Pattern and Discussion


Bevo

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It's the same deal for folks who wish a cat 5 would hit the US. After everything some of my family members lost in Katrina it pisses me off at times. You could find folks nearly routing for a major city to get decimated. I think most of the severe crew would rather see an F 5 hit a cornfield than say Dallas or Atlanta can't say the same for many of the tropical weenies IMO.

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Folks,

 Fwiw, the latest Euro weeklies have been released and they may not favor much severe wx. They may actually favor more wintry wx lol. 

 

Weeks 2-3 (3/18-31) are quite cold for much of the US. including the SE!

Week 4 (4/1-7) is even slightly cooler than normal.

 

Precip: Week 2 wet. Weeks 3-4 normal

 

Pattern: very strong -NAO and -AO week 2. Strong -NAO/-AO week 3. Moderate -NAO/-AO week 4.

 

Long live winter!

 

 

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1993 superstorm caused 6.5 billions of dollars in damage. Some would like a repeat of that storm. Wishing damage or not wishing damage to property wont make weather change its mind or defy physics. Like we see here and wish for these snowstorms to happen.

This is how I feel, this stuff is gonna happen no matter what so I hope to get as close as I can, I am a wind junkie. Hurricane Fran was the most exciting and scariest night storm wise in my life.  The 1993 Superstorm was responsible for like 300 deaths in the US. the same folks who will harp on severe weather junkies "wishing" for tornados and canes would take that storm again in a heartbeat.

 

Chances are severe weather will be delayed some this year but by the end of March into April things should get nasty. Could be several epic days a la April 2011.  

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Folks,

 Fwiw, the latest Euro weeklies have been released and they may not favor much severe wx. They may actually favor more wintry wx lol. 

 

Weeks 2-3 (3/18-31) are quite cold for much of the US. including the SE!

Week 4 (4/1-7) is even slightly cooler than normal.

 

Precip: Week 2 wet. Weeks 3-4 normal

 

Pattern: very strong -NAO and -AO week 2. Strong -NAO/-AO week 3. Moderate -NAO/-AO week 4.

 

Long live winter!

Was it ever in doubt?  The now famous CrossRoads Larry, predicted it would be so :)  Never any doubt in my mind.  In fact I've been splitting wood getting ready, and from some of the fantasy storms out there, I see potential for more fun in Tony's yard, and I'm not talking rotating winds and terror, but gusting winds and cold fun :)

  The Moles did what they do tonight, giving me 1.1 in needed rain (it's been dry lately), and it was  still drizzling heavily when I came in around midnight.  All and all, a great winter here, except for the no real cold, and no sleet and snow part...so maybe I still have a chance to see a  high below freezing, a foot of snow...and drag this sucker out  well into April  :)  T

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Was it ever in doubt?  The now famous CrossRoads Larry, predicted it would be so :)  Never any doubt in my mind.  In fact I've been splitting wood getting ready, and from some of the fantasy storms out there, I see potential for more fun in Tony's yard, and I'm not talking rotating winds and terror, but gusting winds and cold fun :)

  The Moles did what they do tonight, giving me 1.1 in needed rain (it's been dry lately), and it was  still drizzling heavily when I came in around midnight.  All and all, a great winter here, except for the no real cold, and no sleet and snow part...so maybe I still have a chance to see a  high below freezing, a foot of snow...and drag this sucker out  well into April  :)  T

I dont know about well into April but I would rather it stay cold and then warm up for good vs a  2-3 week warm up and then cool and damp for April into May. I will say I love those days were we get really steep lapse rates with surface temps in the low 40's and really cold air aloft and pop up snow showers break out, we usually see them this time of the year if they happen.

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It's the same deal for folks who wish a cat 5 would hit the US. After everything some of my family members lost in Katrina it pisses me off at times. You could find folks nearly routing for a major city to get decimated. I think most of the severe crew would rather see an F 5 hit a cornfield than say Dallas or Atlanta can't say the same for many of the tropical weenies IMO.

Yeah I really don't like when tornadoes hit cities and others especially family members. That damn Yazoo City tornado. :(

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Notice that chasers chase.  They don't stay home hoping and praying an EF 4 or 5 will come through their yard :)  T

Yeah, I doubt too many folks that "chase" or say they do have actually been in close proximity of an extremely powerful storm. I agree with what downeast said about being a wind junkie. I am, but after crouching in a stairwell while the '88 tornado tore my house up I'm sure I don't want to be that close again.

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If you wondered whether or not winter was over...this page confirms it. Age old argument about the ethics of watching weather events. If people choose not to educate themselves and/or pay attention, there is nothing to be done about that. You can only scream at them so many times.

At any rate, now we have a cold dreary spring which I am going to blame on Larry...At least the azaleas should be out in full force at the Masters next month instead of 6 weeks past bloom like last year!

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If you wondered whether or not winter was over...this page confirms it. Age old argument about the ethics of watching weather events. If people choose not to educate themselves and/or pay attention, there is nothing to be done about that. You can only scream at them so many times.

At any rate, now we have a cold dreary spring which I am going to blame on Larry...At least the azaleas should be out in full force at the Masters next month instead of 6 weeks past bloom like last year!

 

In my opinion, the earlier exchanges have nothing to do with paying attention to weather.  It began with a broad statement roping everyone into looking forward to severe season.  Some of us do not "look forward" to it.  That has no relationship with whether or not we pay attention to it.    

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If you wondered whether or not winter was over...this page confirms it. Age old argument about the ethics of watching weather events. If people choose not to educate themselves and/or pay attention, there is nothing to be done about that. You can only scream at them so many times.

At any rate, now we have a cold dreary spring which I am going to blame on Larry...At least the azaleas should be out in full force at the Masters next month instead of 6 weeks past bloom like last year!

still think the mtns. will have a couple of snow events before spring is sprung, climo.

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If you wondered whether or not winter was over...this page confirms it. Age old argument about the ethics of watching weather events. If people choose not to educate themselves and/or pay attention, there is nothing to be done about that. You can only scream at them so many times.

At any rate, now we have a cold dreary spring which I am going to blame on Larry...At least the azaleas should be out in full force at the Masters next month instead of 6 weeks past bloom like last year!

I was just thinking the same thing about the azaleas.  Spring sure is slow to come this year compared to last.  It might be nearly April before everything starts to green up.

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Folks,

 Fwiw, the latest Euro weeklies have been released and they may not favor much severe wx. They may actually favor more wintry wx lol. 

 

Weeks 2-3 (3/18-31) are quite cold for much of the US. including the SE!

Week 4 (4/1-7) is even slightly cooler than normal.

 

Precip: Week 2 wet. Weeks 3-4 normal

 

Pattern: very strong -NAO and -AO week 2. Strong -NAO/-AO week 3. Moderate -NAO/-AO week 4.

 

Long live winter!

 

Probably 50s and rain. No thanks.

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It's the same deal for folks who wish a cat 5 would hit the US. After everything some of my family members lost in Katrina it pisses me off at times. You could find folks nearly routing for a major city to get decimated. I think most of the severe crew would rather see an F 5 hit a cornfield than say Dallas or Atlanta can't say the same for many of the tropical weenies IMO.

It's kind of weird (and a little upsetting) when I see people wish for an (E)F5 tornado (not saying anyone on this board does that, BTW). It's like they don't know how the Fujita scale works. A tornado won't be an "F5" until it's destroyed someone's house, and in the process quite possibly taken some lives as well. NO one wants that.

What we (who enjoy studying and watching the dynamics of severe storms play out) should always hope for are all F0 tornadoes, all the time. Like the Last Chance tornado, which hit jack squat but did so amazingly.

Now, I can't lie, I do wish for waterspouts whenever I go to the beach. But that's only because the vast majority of waterspouts are weak and never pose a serious threat to anyone (unless you are in a small craft out on the water). Really, I don't think anyone wishes for *damaging* weather of any kind. Snowstorms are very capable of doing tremendous damage and taking lives (just look at, hey, the Superstorm of '93), but obviously none of the winter nuts want that.

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still think the mtns. will have a couple of snow events before spring is sprung, climo.

Absolutely...the new Euro weeklies from last night show the block hanging in there into April which is a reasonable assumption...there will be opportunities for the mountains.
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The weather here today and from overnight is fabulous. And it looks like early next week could be awesome again, for the same reasons. Loving this so-called winter with cool rainy days.  If I can't get the snow, this is second best, drought-choking rains.  Hopefully it will stay cool for the foreseeable future, because who wants hot, sticky, boring weather?

 

(Feel free to move, mods, as this is obviously banter, but I couldn't resist.)

 

:)

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It seems like for some reason, people enjoy making the argument that if someone likes severe/extreme weather, they automatically wish death and destruction on people. That's wrong and it's also disingenuous.

People die and damage occurs in many different weather scenarios other than the popular Cat 5 hurricanes or EF5 tornadoes that are so popularly trotted out (how about Cat 1s or EF1s?). Do you wish for heavy snow? Do you wish for heavy rain? Do you wish for cold? Heat? They all cause damage and destruction and injury and death. Sure, it would be awesome to see a Cat 5 cane or an EF5 tornado hit where nobody is. Sure it would be nice to have a blizzard over your house without the risk of destruction of property or injury or death. But that's not the way it works is it?

Most weather enthusiasts like extreme weather. Most of those folks don't want to see peoples' lives get destroyed. I think you can be interested in extreme weather without being morally compromised. If one disagrees, then one should rethink their desire for the next big arctic outbreak or widespread winter storm in order to avoid the hypocrisy that comes with the finger pointing at others.

On the other hand, if one's desire is for a catastrophic event to befall your fellow man, then that is just sick.

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By the way, the cool, rainy weather is awesome. Certainly helps alleviate the dry conditions...or at least put us on the right path as we head into a drier season.

As far as the Weeklies go, it's good they're showing cold. They've not done too well this year, so maybe Spring won't be ruined after all.

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If you wondered whether or not winter was over...this page confirms it. Age old argument about the ethics of watching weather events. If people choose not to educate themselves and/or pay attention, there is nothing to be done about that. You can only scream at them so many times.

 

 

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Anybody else been reading DT's Facebook page? Man does he waffle with every euro run. Heck if I see the euro, I'm pretty sure of what he'll say. Also funny that he has become such a hypster like he for so many years accused JB of doing. At least JB did it without the 4 letter words and derogatory comments. TW

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I was just thinking the same thing about the azaleas. Spring sure is slow to come this year compared to last. It might be nearly April before everything starts to green up.

+1

That is the way it should be. I never like seeing things green up and bust out down in the Piedmont of NC in February.

April is quite allright with the green up getting into the mountains in May.

Summer is way too long in recent years.

 

How many days until the first fall leaf color in early September and the frst October upslope snow in October?

 

Here is not hoping to a Sandy storm redux this year.

 

For the winter wrapping up, the October Snow from the backside of Sandy did turn out to be the largest single winter event f the 2012-2013 winter.  (Unless we get big snow dump over the next few weeks!)

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In the mountains (with the rare exception of last year) March is very much a winter month.  Cold, windy, with bouts of either chilly rain; or if cold air is getting pumped down there will be snow but not enough qpf for anything but flurries in the central French Broad Valley, 1993 notwithstanding.  Unfortunately I am very ready for spring when March rolls around so it can be frustrating.  Of course the payback come summer is not having the boiling heat of the piedmont and having only a short drive to the cool top of Mt. Mitchell.

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Anybody else been reading DT's Facebook page? Man does he waffle with every euro run. Heck if I see the euro, I'm pretty sure of what he'll say. Also funny that he has become such a hypster like he for so many years accused JB of doing. At least JB did it without the 4 letter words and derogatory comments. TW

 

The guy trolled me on FB for a comment relating to the 1993 Superstorm. I guess he didn't realize I was in HIGH SCHOOL at the time lol.

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Absolutely...the new Euro weeklies from last night show the block hanging in there into April which is a reasonable assumption...there will be opportunities for the mountains.

 

ah yes, the Euro Weeklies... those pillars of forecasting stability :bag:

 

what a joke those things have been this winter

 

I thought most on this board had come to a general agreement that long-range forecasting is nearly useless, especially in a fast-paced flow like the one we have been stick in all winter long

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