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March Pattern and Discussion


Bevo

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It wasn't there on the 0z from last night. I don't buy it and doubt many do.

Did not say second run a row. Not sure what the problem is Marietta. Scroll up and you will see my post about it - yesterday. It is the second 12z in a row. We are just talking weather. I don't think many are buying it FWIW. As Robert says on FB, the block is the thing to watch not the low.

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Did not say second run a row. Not sure what the problem is Marietta. Scroll up and you will see my post about it - yesterday. It is the second 12z in a row. We are just talking weather. I don't think many are buying it FWIW. As Robert says on FB, the block is the thing to watch not the low.

I think it was there at 0z just a different evolution. Much different.
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Lol what a bomb! Too bad the euro has been showing these storms for the last two years yet they don't even come close to verifying.

Very true. It would not surprise me to see the mtns get a big event though. I remember in the 90s(I think) Pisgah getting absolutley hammered late in the season. In NE TN it happens about once every fifteen years or so...maybe more the closer to the mtns you get. Doubt it verifies as well. These types of lows will be modeled all over the place between now and then. KTRI hit 70 fifteen times last March and 80 three other times. Last year, this wasn't even a possibility.

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Just looked at the Euro and the final solution (regardless of how it looks today) is going to suffer the same fate as the rest of the winter....the strong system coming into the west will beat the ridge down as the time nears, and we'll see the system more north and weaker in the end -- the unfortunate effect of a hyperactive Pacific.

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Did not say second run a row. Not sure what the problem is Marietta. Scroll up and you will see my post about it - yesterday. It is the second 12z in a row. We are just talking weather. I don't think many are buying it FWIW. As Robert says on FB, the block is the thing to watch not the low.

There is no consistency in the runs. What I gathered from your post above was you suggesting some sort of consistency. As for Robert he's been having a rough time recently with his views on the blocking.

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There is no consistency in the runs. What I gathered from your post above was you suggesting some sort of consistency. As for Robert he's been having a rough time recently with his views on the blocking.

FWIW, Robert holds your point of view on the storm(and mine for that matter)...unlikely. Still, up here in NE TN these things can produce. The Euro has been terrible at this range since it was adjusted a few years back. As for consistency, it showed a bowling ball on the last two 12z runs. Who knows where it goes, but worth watching as Europe is not done yet either. At KTRI we are twenty degrees cooler than last year...so potential is there since the pattern is cooler. I put my money on a big mountain snow. Have a good evening, MariettaWx.

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12z Euro got a major cutoff for March 19th and 20th...

 

I have been following CAD and over-running events for this area for many years and there are a couple of things that nearly all of them have in common. One, is a cold sorce region. We need -20C 850's in Maine. This one has that. Next is a strong damming high pressure located just east of the lakes. This one has a weak high that will have to trend stronger to offer any hope of getting enough old air down here. Last is QPF, this one is rather weak. There will need to be some decent rates to lock in the cold air. All in all, I give it <10% chance of producing winter weather outside the mtns as of now. That could change if the high gets stronger as we approach the event. At least there will be some cold air that can be tapped, given the right setup.......... Is the Euro on to something? Sure would be a nice way to close out winter.

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Leading us down the  same rabbit path as about 12-15 days ago. I lost way too much sleep and woke up far too many times to check the euro in the early morning hours as the euro was locked on to a big one for us. This one really doesn't look much different and it will be 2 weeks further into March.  Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.  Having said that, I'm sure I'll have to take a peak at it after 3am in the morning.

TW

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Seen this from the Euro before at 10 days out. If it was 2 days out, then we might give it a look. I actually hope it doesn;t happen now. After today's great weather, I am ready for spring.

 

Need this to trend south for a Atlanta, GA snow. As of now, we would not be able to handle the northward trends it would undertake 4 days out I am afraid. 

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No reason to think about particular storms or north trends at this point, that's just silly.

 

What is important is the teleconnections favoring the blocking pattern. It will become more apparent if we're dealing with a potential storm once the GFS and Euro can agree on the pattern over the US come the 3/18-3/20 period. I'm not too hopeful for this storm for us, somewhat hopeful for areas inland in the NE. I disagree with the dude above me saying we need to see a Atlanta, GA snow first...that's just silly. What we need to see is something supportive of a coastal bombing off of the OBX and some real cold at the same exact time, that's what we need to see. Otherwise, 10 times out of 10 this party is going North and it's not a trend that's taking it there.

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No reason to think about particular storms or north trends at this point, that's just silly.

 

What is important is the teleconnections favoring the blocking pattern. It will become more apparent if we're dealing with a potential storm once the GFS and Euro can agree on the pattern over the US come the 3/18-3/20 period. I'm not too hopeful for this storm for us, somewhat hopeful for areas inland in the NE. I disagree with the dude above me saying we need to see a Atlanta, GA snow first...that's just silly. What we need to see is something supportive of a coastal bombing off of the OBX and some real cold at the same exact time, that's what we need to see. Otherwise, 10 times out of 10 this party is going North and it's not a trend that's taking it there.

 

I gave this winter a chance at common sense, fool me once, fool me twice, fool me thrice, no more fooling. I think it is so far late in the game (in overtime now) we should be looking at this particular storm not pattern logic. We just need a brief one day perfect timing hail mary for this to work.

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Well, Goofy had super cad days ago, and I almost always pull for the underdog, since Dr. NO is now a media darling :)  March is too full of surprises to just say nay outright...just wait and see what comes.  I'd say more winters than not it gets a cold day at the masters, and often snow flurries in Ga.  I never start the kicking and screaming until then. Anyway, climo wants me to get cold again, so I'm stacking fire wood on the porch, not taking it down.  T

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