downeastnc Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 IIRC, when I looked at the LR GFS a few days ago, it was advertising some sort of fantasy storm around that time period. I haven't looked again since it's so far out there and it's unlikely to happen. Plus, I've had enough model watching for now. We've gotten accumulating snows in the northern NC Piedmont in mid/late March in 1983, 1993, and 2003. Next up is 2013, obviously. Guaranteed. I have seen snow accumulate in April twice way down here in eastern NC so its not impossible but then again its happened twice in like 40 yrs sooooooooo The March 24th 1983 storm is still the best late season snow for us but I would suspect the return time on a event like that is pretty damn long. http://www.glenallenweather.com/links/snowmaps/1983/SE%20snowstorm%20mar24-25,%201983.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 It's quiet in here.... Too quiet !!! Because it is over and there is nothing but a painful wait for 8-9 months for winter weather fans after 2 consecutive years of crap for many. Plenty have simply thrown in the towel. The traffic will go down until late next fall. I'll stick around for severe weather season (because I chase that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Because it is over and there is nothing but a painful wait for 8-9 months for winter weather fans after 2 consecutive years of crap for many. Plenty have simply thrown in the towel. The traffic will go down until late next fall. I'll stick around for severe weather season (because I chase that). Got a few extra vacations days saved this year so any decent mod or high risk hatch for us it will be game on. I missed out Apr 2011 stuck at work that will not happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Eight months until the return of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 The model ensembles were just showing last week and the week before that march was going to be a cold month possibly the coldest month this winter in regards to below the normals. I even heard the year 1960 brought up a time or two with analog comparisons. Now the next 7 days the forecast is for 65 or higher each day and maybe getting into the 70's the middle of next week? Long range models are horrible and are getting worse each year instead of better. I lost count on how many times the models were crying wolf with the mother load of cold air coming this winter and then nothing even close to what they were showing happened. The last two winters have been pretty depressing to say the least! The overall patterns have changed big time from the 80's & 90's... You can't even get a low pressure system to develop in the gulf of mexico and ride up the east coast like they used to do like clock work during the winters back then. I guess all those microwaves going through our atmosphere thanks to HAARP has something to do with it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I'm definitely ready for some severe weather tracking and discussion. This past storm may have been winter's last gasp and I say let her die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 The model ensembles were just showing last week and the week before that march was going to be a cold month possibly the coldest month this winter in regards to below the normals. I even heard the year 1960 brought up a time or two with analog comparisons. Now the next 7 days the forecast is for 65 or higher each day and maybe getting into the 70's the middle of next week? Long range models are horrible and are getting worse each year instead of better. I lost count on how many times the models were crying wolf with the mother load of cold air coming this winter and then nothing even close to what they were showing happened. The last two winters have been pretty depressing to say the least! The overall patterns have changed big time from the 80's & 90's... You can't even get a low pressure system to develop in the gulf of mexico and ride up the east coast like they used to do like clock work during the winters back then. I guess all those microwaves going through our atmosphere thanks to HAARP has something to do with it??? Drama much? I'm kidding. A little. BTW, the 80's were more miss than hit for this area. The 90's even more so. I'll give this -PDO cycle it's due and figure once we go back into the positive cycle, we'll be good to go. My kids will have graduated by then, so I'll have more time to focus on it - bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 The model ensembles were just showing last week and the week before that march was going to be a cold month possibly the coldest month this winter in regards to below the normals. I even heard the year 1960 brought up a time or two with analog comparisons. Now the next 7 days the forecast is for 65 or higher each day and maybe getting into the 70's the middle of next week? Long range models are horrible and are getting worse each year instead of better. I lost count on how many times the models were crying wolf with the mother load of cold air coming this winter and then nothing even close to what they were showing happened. The last two winters have been pretty depressing to say the least! The overall patterns have changed big time from the 80's & 90's... You can't even get a low pressure system to develop in the gulf of mexico and ride up the east coast like they used to do like clock work during the winters back then. I guess all those microwaves going through our atmosphere thanks to HAARP has something to do with it??? I agree completely some of the hype that goes on in here is a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 The ghost is still showing up someone call ghost busters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 ... just a ghost in the machine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Hay it looks like central Virginia up towards DC could be dealing with a big snow in about 8 days or so. I'm sure surface temps will not be a factor as dynamic cooling will take over. Anybody have a first call map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Hay it looks like central Virginia up towards DC could be dealing with a big snow in about 8 days or so. I'm sure surface temps will not be a factor as dynamic cooling will take over. Anybody have a first call map? This is not an upper level low "bowling ball" set up. This one is quite different. This is an over-running event and, as modeled, there is plenty of cold air to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 This is not an upper level low "bowling ball" set up. This one is quite different. This is an over-running event and, as modeled, there is plenty of cold air to tap. I was being sarcastic, but this time of year you're going to need a lot of cold air to tap. For our area(this time of year), CADs that produce wintery weather are really hard to come by. Yes they can happen, but surface temps will always be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 And seeing as the cold air in the lr always ends up much warmer, I'd say the odds are extremely slim. The exception was back in late jan when Gso had 1" sn/ip/zr and 22 degrees durin the day. Sledding with the kids was extraordinary. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Hay it looks like central Virginia up towards DC could be dealing with a big snow in about 8 days or so. I'm sure surface temps will not be a factor as dynamic cooling will take over. Anybody have a first call map? I see what you did there. Bravo sir.This is not an upper level low "bowling ball" set up. This one is quite different. This is an over-running event and, as modeled, there is plenty of cold air to tap.Mega lol.. Translation : I could see this trending south giving parts of NC a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 I see what you did there. Bravo sir. Mega lol.. Translation : I could see this trending south giving parts of NC a good storm. Lol winter is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Euro 12z...Check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 There's last week's storm still offshore. I can understand why discussion could become less interesting after winter weather is no longer possible. The spring pattern will be worth discussing this year I feel. I can't put a name to it or an outline around it but something subtle has seemed unusual since autumn. Anyway, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 It's all over except for the shouting...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Euro 12z...Check it out.I saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Bye bye winter!!!! Golfing weather has arrived! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Guys, 240 Euro is not horrible for one maybe last gasp for you all. It's been fun this winter with everyone, despite no winter. Please do me a favor though as we move forward - pray away 'Canes from my little farm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 I saw it. What did it show? I can only see thru 180 hrs or so on wunderground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 What did it show? I can only see thru 180 hrs or so on wunderground It shows a snowstorm for NC (looks like a moderate event, perhaps). This does seem to be a period that bears some watching, so who knows? I guess it's possible, but I'm not going to pay it any attention at the moment. The NC Piedmont had an accumulating snowfall in 1983, 1993, and 2003, so obviously 2013 is next! By the way, today was a really nice day. It's a shame we can't have these sorts of days all spring long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Superjames. Yes the euro showed the stall, but actually all the models showed a VERY slow moving storm once off the carolina coast. Actually, I think the gfs was much more accurate in that it ended the precip by the early morning hours on Wednesday. The euro for quite some time had precip in n NC lasting well into the day on Wednesday. Then the biggest thing I think is that the euro was WAY behind the gfs in showing precip from DC north. Remember how DT harped on this and that the Euro had showed no snow up that way for like 14 runs and he was all in with the Euro. Then in the last 48 hours it caved to the gfs north move. Regardless, they've both had the ups and downs. I kind of like it that way since it tends to leave us with a bit of hope even when things aren't that rosey. By the way, you still got that 1/4 mile sled run or however long it was? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Next cold front sweeping across the SE has some decent cold air (at least aloft). Still showing some interesting setups past day 7, but as stated before it will be real hard to get anything wintery outside the mountains this time of year. 6z GFS at 84 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Funny, I went to check the 12z GFS and it was only out to hour 60. I had already forgot about the time change. But at hour 60 looks like the cold is still heading south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Negative 850's should get me under freezing again by mid month. That's all I care about...when's my next freeze coming. The heck with spring, and all those nasty flowers, and heat. I've already had a gut full of heat the last three years. Three years and counting since I had a high below freezing. To me, that's 3 straight years of endless summer, with no winter at all. How about a little balance.. But noooooooo...it'll take Laki, or a super volcano going off to get a bit cooler in summer. But a hot winter? No problem...how about back to back year round summers? Oh, yeah, you can have that, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 12z Euro got a major cutoff for March 19th and 20th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Seen this dance before. Will trend north, slam MA&NE. Cantore will be in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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