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March Pattern and Discussion


Bevo

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Throw it out. Goofy is being goofy lol.

 

Edit: Ahaaa, what do we have here? The 0z Doc is much colder than its prior runs in the 6-10. So, winter really might not be over. Surprise lolz. Don't underestimate the forecasting power of analogs as well as the durability of strong blocking. It still remains to be seen, but the model hints from

the last few days have suggested winter not being over by any stretch. The analogs support this idea. We'll see. Night night!

 

Folks,

 Well, is Goofy still being goofy or is it onto something? The last several runs have lacked a cold week 2. Also, the 12Z Doc wasn't that cold. With the good blocking and analog support for a higher than avg. chance for a cold/wintry period in mid March, I'm not yet giving up although I admit the latest models aren't encouraging. We'll see.

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Folks,

 Well, is Goofy still being goofy or is it onto something? The last several runs have lacked a cold week 2. Also, the 12Z Doc wasn't that cold. With the good blocking and analog support for a higher than avg. chance for a cold/wintry period in mid March, I'm not yet giving up although I admit the latest models aren't encouraging. We'll see.

I would rather be cold now than flip warmer now cause if we do get warm now I predict mid to late April ends up with wall to wall CADs with 45 and drizzle for days on end. 

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Folks,

 Well, is Goofy still being goofy or is it onto something? The last several runs have lacked a cold week 2. Also, the 12Z Doc wasn't that cold. With the good blocking and analog support for a higher than avg. chance for a cold/wintry period in mid March, I'm not yet giving up although I admit the latest models aren't encouraging. We'll see.

Models haven't been right all winter so I'd rather see them wrong now! :-)

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The 00z Euro and it's control run were both lackluster.  Two or three juicy systems roll through but cold air is a day late and a dollar short.

why is the cold air always late?  why not at least half the time can the cold air not be here before the storm arrives.  90 percent of the time we get the moisture it arrives into warm air and then the storm departs the cold rolls in, whats with that?  FRUSTRATING

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The ensembles say enjoy the warm up this week because its short lived!

 

 

I don't know about you but I am tired of clouds, chilly weather, and rain.  Bring on an east coast ridge, guess it ain't going to happen.

 

Same here. I'm ready for warmer and sunny days with some severe weather to follow. We have had too many cold rainy days and not enough snow this winter.

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Well, not sure how the ensembles play into the extended...but for southeast VA, anyway, the extended shows a lot of 60's, a couple of pops of 70, and otherwise average temperatures (50's). Sounds like Spring is trying to creep in to me. Regardless of what any given model says...It's getting close to mid-March. The Sun angle is getting higher and higher, the days longer, and the averages are now on the rise. Any cold we get is more likely to be short lived, compared to any mild or average spells.

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Interesting outlook from NOAA regarding ENSO into the summer months (since this is technically a LR discussion):

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/07/weather-elnio-cpc-idUSL1N0BZ9OM20130307?feedType=RSS&feedName=industrialsSector&rpc=43

I haven't looked at ENSO status in a while now, so thanks for posting the outlook. It'll be interesting to see what status will be favored as we move toward next winter. Would be nice to have the ever-elusive weak west-based Nino, but another Nina wouldn't surprise me. Add that to a raging -PDO and watch winter get buggered again.

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well does anyone see any cold and snow for around the 15th thru the 23.  I was reading this might be a good time frame for the nc mtns.  got to have one decent snow this year.  I'll settle for 2 inches.  Things are really bad when this is all I'm asking for.

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SSW in progress in Asia as we speak, could scramble the weather patterns again. There's no telling what we will get.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

EURO develops an Omega block in Canada by day 10 that results in CAD signature. Probably too late in the game for most of us, but I am always intrigued with Omega blocks and the resultant pattern.

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EURO develops an Omega block in Canada by day 10 that results in CAD signature. Probably too late in the game for most of us, but I am always intrigued with Omega blocks and the resultant pattern.

 

IIRC, when I looked at the LR GFS a few days ago, it was advertising some sort of fantasy storm around that time period.  I haven't looked again since it's so far out there and it's unlikely to happen.  Plus, I've had enough model watching for now.

 

We've gotten accumulating snows in the northern NC Piedmont in mid/late March in 1983, 1993, and 2003.  Next up is 2013, obviously.  Guaranteed.

 

:lmao:

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