March Pattern and Discussion

[franklin NCwx]

Fits with Larry's analogues. I'll be the first to admit that I was very skeptical about what he presented, using analogues. But he's been pretty spot on, and so I stand very corrected.the ensembles hold onto to the blocking forever. Does loom chilly nothing really cold. Will need a phase or dare I say an upper low to get some decent snow event.

And yeah, it does look chilly. Probably not going to result in a widespread winter storm for us, but chilly nonetheless.

[Cold Rain]

Fits with Larry's analogues. I'll be the first to admit that I was very skeptical about what he presented, using analogues. But he's been pretty spot on, and so I stand very corrected.the ensembles hold onto to the blocking forever. Does loom chilly nothing really cold. Will need a phase or dare I say an upper low to get some decent snow event.

And yeah, it does look chilly. Probably not going to result in a widespread winter storm for us, but chilly nonetheless.

Haha! You quoted inside my quote. Ever since the board upgrade, that has been happening a lot.

[Bevo]

Haha! You quoted inside my quote. Ever since the board upgrade, that has been happening a lot.

 

And I have to get a forensics team in here to find the separation sometimes.

[WilkesboroDude]

 Don't look now and don't laugh, but there is very cold air lurking nearby around midmonth per the 12Z Goofy and several recent GFS runs. I fully recognize the GFS cold bias, but those same analogs that suggested a cold start to March also suggest the potential of a second cold period near midmonth.

 

 Here is a link to the thread I started on 1/1 regarding the warm early winter analogs that suggested a good chance for a chilly March (note that several of the highlighted dates are in mid-March):

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38633-rest-of-se-winter-best-by-far-yet-to-come-per-warm-decjan-analogs/

 

Regarding those calling winter over after this week: you may want to hold back for now and see what develops over the next two weeks or so. Look what just has occurred...coldest five day period in many cases, first wintry precip. for some....which was suggested as a good chance to occur by these same analogs. Also, with good blocking quite possibly expected to persist, this period definitely does need to be monitored for the realisitc possibility of more wintry wx.

 

In order to have more you have to have had some first. 

[dsaur]

I think you've relieved your burden of proof regarding March so far.  So your above post should be earnestly considered in my opinion.

When he called for snow in Savannah, and it verified....well, when Larry speaks, many in Ga. listen   Savannah Larry knows stuff!!  Some say he was down at the cross roads at midnight.  But when I hear that, I just say he was out for his walk

  I think the long range just looks disorganized, like the models don't study climo..but I don't see spring.  There is nearly always a cold day at the Masters, and that ain't 'til April for all the silly rabbits that are looking for it....... too soon, but still a ways away.  T

[Cold Rain]

And I have to get a forensics team in here to find the separation sometimes.

Lol, I know what you mean! Haha! See what I did there?

[superjames1992]

If by some miracle we have something to track later this month, we will have to wait until close to 2:30 AM to see the Euro, LOL.

[GaWx]

When he called for snow in Savannah, and it verified....well, when Larry speaks, many in Ga. listen   Savannah Larry knows stuff!!  Some say he was down at the cross roads at midnight.  But when I hear that, I just say he was out for his walk

  I think the long range just looks disorganized, like the models don't study climo..but I don't see spring.  There is nearly always a cold day at the Masters, and that ain't 'til April for all the silly rabbits that are looking for it....... too soon, but still a ways away.  T

 

Tony,

 Lol. Actually, I'm getting ready for a much warmer walk shortly. Will I have any more cold walks after this week? I really do think so but we'll see.

 

Thanks. Climo is a geat tool.

[GaWx]

Folks,

 Euro weeklies just out:

 

SE Temperatures:

Week 2 (3/11-17): averages near normal...starts mild and turns cold

Week 3:(3/18-24): averages below normal....starts cold and ends near normal

Week 4:(3/25-31): near normal

 

SE Precip:

Weeks 2-4: near normal

 

Translation: next and perhaps last good opportunity at a sig. wintry event ~3/15-23

 

NAO: negative west based weeks 2-4....very strong week 2, strong week 3, weak week 4

 

AO: very strongly negative week 2; moderately negative week 3; ~neutral week 4

 

PNA: slightly negative to neutral weeks 2-4

 

 

Aside: 18Z Goofy still another chilly 11-15 day run fwiw with very cold air lurking not too far away...Yes, I know it is cold biased.

[superjames1992]

Folks,

 Euro weeklies just out:

 

SE Temperatures:

Week 2 (3/11-17): averages near normal...starts mild and turns cold

Week 3:(3/18-24): averages below normal....starts cold and ends near normal

Week 4:(3/25-31): near normal

 

SE Precip:

Weeks 2-4: near normal

 

Translation: next and perhaps last good opportunity at a sig. wintry event ~3/15-23

 

NAO: negative west based weeks 2-4....very strong week 2, strong week 3, weak week 4

 

AO: very strongly negative week 2; moderately negative week 3; ~neutral week 4

 

PNA: slightly negative to neutral weeks 2-4

 

 

Aside: 18Z Goofy still another chilly 11-15 day run fwiw with very cold air lurking not too far away...Yes, I know it is cold biased.

 

Thanks, Larry.  We can get snowstorms in mid- to late-March, though they are a rarity (last significant one was March 1993, IIRC ... before that - 1983?).  I will keep an eye out, in any case.

[GaWx]

Folks,

 The 0Z Goofy, if you take it verbatim (it is a cold biased model...so we must keep that in mind), says spring will be over a week from today lol. Still ANOTHER chilly run for week two with very cold air lurking not too far north. Two Miller A's are modeled fwiw though neither producing wintry precip.  Analogs, thw Euro weeklies, and projected continued blocking say watch for a a good shot at renewed wintry wx mid month. Believe it or not, that could once again include some more of the coldest wx yet this winter! We'll see. Stay tuned.

 

Edit: no fewer than four of the original 14 analogs had five airmasses that produced either or both the coldest and the 2nd coldest airmasses of the entire winter between 3/10 and 3/20, inclusive! The coldest lows at KATL from these airmasses were as follows: 15, 17, 18, 18, and 19. Coldest so far this winter at KATL: 25.

 

Edit #2: KATL Wintry precip. from these four analogs: 0.3" on 3/9, 4.2" on 3/13

Measurable wintry precip. from other 10 analogs: 4.0" on 3/14, 1.2" on 3/11-12

 

 So, very eventful wx just in mid-March, alone, from nearly half the analogs (for just the short period 3/9-20!!). That's a pretty strong analog signal and implies well above the overall climo based chance for that kind of thing.

[NavarreDon]

Folks,

 The 0Z Goofy, if you take it verbatim (it is a cold biased model...so we must keep that in mind), says spring will be over a week from today lol. Still ANOTHER chilly run for week two with very cold air lurking not too far north. Two Miller A's are modeled fwiw though neither producing wintry precip.  Analogs, thw Euro weeklies, and projected continued blocking say watch for a a good shot at renewed wintry wx mid month. Believe it or not, that could once again include some more of the coldest wx yet this winter! We'll see. Stay tuned.

 

Edit: no fewer than four of the original 14 analogs had five airmasses that produced either or both the coldest and the 2nd coldest airmasses of the entire winter between 3/10 and 3/20, inclusive! The coldest lows at KATL from these airmasses were as follows: 15, 17, 18, 18, and 19. Coldest so far this winter at KATL: 25.

 

Edit #2: KATL Wintry precip. from these four analogs: 0.3" on 3/9, 4.2" on 3/13

Measurable wintry precip. from other 10 analogs: 4.0" on 3/14, 1.2" on 3/11-12

 

 So, very eventful wx just in mid-March, alone, from nearly half the analogs (for just the short period 3/9-20!!). That's a pretty strong analog signal and implies well above the overall climo based chance for that kind of thing.

 

Just wanted to take a minute & thank you for all the work you do plus the time you take to post it on the board. You articulate your posts so well that everyone from Mets to Newbies understands your thoughts. You are one of my most respected posters. Now run along & whip us up a big snowstorm would ya!

[wake4est]

Fantasy GFS storm for Western NC at 384.  Start the thread.

[GreensboroWx]

The latest GFS and EURO are quite different. IF the GFS is correct, winter is far from over, though. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see another chance or two of winter precip in the SE with that set up. Of course, it's a BIG IF.

 

As GaWx keeps pointing out with the analogs, we're far from done. It seems using analogs is a great forecasting tool. It's something I really need to learn better!!

[Brick Tamland]

The latest GFS and EURO are quite different. IF the GFS is correct, winter is far from over, though. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see another chance or two of winter precip in the SE with that set up. Of course, it's a BIG IF.

 

As GaWx keeps pointing out with the analogs, we're far from done. It seems using analogs is a great forecasting tool. It's something I really need to learn better!!

 

GFS seems to be the model of choice lately, too.

[Brick Tamland]

Fantasy GFS storm for Western NC at 384.  Start the thread.

 

I'm sure Wilkes will soon.

[dsaur]

The latest GFS and EURO are quite different. IF the GFS is correct, winter is far from over, though. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see another chance or two of winter precip in the SE with that set up. Of course, it's a BIG IF.

 

As GaWx keeps pointing out with the analogs, we're far from done. It seems using analogs is a great forecasting tool. It's something I really need to learn better!!

  I see one way out there I really like, but I won't say anything this time.  I liked the last storm way out, and it did produce for parts of Ga. but not on me, which is what counts the most, lol.  I'm a bit disappointed the cold didn't get as cold as it was looking 10 days back, so i hope we have the coldest yet to come.  But unless I can get below freezing for a few days, I don't hold out hope for debugistation for the summer, lol.  I'd like to see  a 20 year anniversary return of one of my favorite storms...and at least as cold.  Tony

[burgertime]

Euro looks very cold for the west. Has what looks to be a pretty mean cold front making it's way across the country @240 

[JQPublic]

Thanks, Larry.  We can get snowstorms in mid- to late-March, though they are a rarity (last significant one was March 1993, IIRC ... before that - 1983?).  I will keep an eye out, in any case.

 

if only there was one in 2003, i woulda called it a pattern

[superjames1992]

if only there was one in 2003, i woulda called it a pattern

 

Well, we had this on March 30, 2003, ha.

 

 

I remember that one well.  It was 70-80 degrees in the preceding days   Then the morning of the 30th it started out as a rain/snow mix and then gradually changed over to snow.  It snowed pretty good for an hour or two before it changed back over to rain around noon.  As you can see, we ended up with a dusting to a coating that accumulated on everything except the roads.

 

There was also a heavy snowstorm for roughty I-85/westward on March 22-23, 1981.

[POWERSTROKE]

One year we had 6-8 inches around march 20th. I dont remember when but i was in school so it was in mid 80's

[JQPublic]

Well, we had this on March 30, 2003, ha.

 

 

I remember that one well.  It was 70-80 degrees in the preceding days   Then the morning of the 30th it started out as a rain/snow mix and then gradually changed over to snow.  It snowed pretty good for an hour or two before it changed back over to rain around noon.  As you can see, we ended up with a dusting to a coating that accumulated on everything except the roads.

 

There was also a heavy snowstorm for roughty I-85/westward on March 22-23, 1981.

I'll allow it!

[Southern Track]

0z GFS lost its cold look in the long range.

[GaWx]

0z GFS lost its cold look in the long range.

 

Throw it out. Goofy is being goofy lol.

 

Edit: Ahaaa, what do we have here? The 0z Doc is much colder than its prior runs in the 6-10. So, winter really might not be over. Surprise lolz. Don't underestimate the forecasting power of analogs as well as the durability of strong blocking. It still remains to be seen, but the model hints from

the last few days have suggested winter not being over by any stretch. The analogs support this idea. We'll see. Night night!

[Southern Track]

Throw it out. Goofy is being goofy lol.

Edit: Ahaaa, what do we have here? The 0z Doc is much colder than its prior runs in the 6-10. So, winter really might not be over. Surprise lolz. Don't underestimate the forecasting power of analogs as well as the durability of strong blocking. It still remains to be seen, but the model hints from

the last few days have suggested winter not being over by any stretch. The analogs support this idea. We'll see. Night night!

Yessir, Doc was looking strong this AM. Good stuff as always GW.

[DaculaWeather]

And... as Mr. Sutherland says:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/page-20#entry2190309

[Cold Rain]

And... as Mr. Sutherland says:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/page-20#entry2190309

**ATTENTION ATTENTION BRICK TAMLAND**

This does not mean an historic blocking episode, 20 contour ULL, or mega blizzard for Wake Forest, NC. Do not get your hopes up. Do not get your hopes up. Do not get your hopes up. Do not get your hopes up.

[Brick Tamland]

**ATTENTION ATTENTION BRICK TAMLAND**

This does not mean an historic blocking episode, 20 contour ULL, or mega blizzard for Wake Forest, NC. Do not get your hopes up. Do not get your hopes up. Do not get your hopes up. Do not get your hopes up.

 

Oh, it's on.

[Teru Teru Bozu]

Hmm...the GFS sets up some decent shear over my area in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. Maybe we'll get a nice thunderstorm or two.

[dsaur]

I'd pay a lot to see that super cad setup way out there come to pass   Well, not if it's an ice storm.  T