Gray Mills Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 New here and trying to learn. , I am 70 miles due east of Charlotte(near SC border). My take is that I am close to being out of the game and the more north you go the better. Is that pretty much where we stand? Sorry for the dumb question but like I said I am trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Matthew has updated his blog: http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Allan, too: http://www.examiner.com/article/update-on-march-6th-winter-weather-potential#sthash.cfzjfPPg.uxfs Allan said he doubts it'll be a blockbuster for NC, but we'll see. We have four more days of model watching. Fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like things went well overnight. I knew this would come back to a NC storm. Might not be a foot of snow, but I expect it to be a decent half foot at least. You need to read (or reread) WeatherNC's post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm traveling, on my phone, and have no easy access to models. Can someone throw me a bone as to what the overnight runs showed for east TN? I'd very much appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 we have got to get this a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My recommendation is if you want to see a good snow head to VA for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At 4-5 days out nothing is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The guidance seems pretty locked on taking the 850 low though central and eastern NC, with the surface passing near or over HAT, maybe coming off around Elizabeth City before retrograding slowly SE as the system stacks. In NC, we need that 850 track to shift well south over SC, and the surface to come off around Myrtle Beach-Wilmington. That is a pretty sizable shift at this range, not impossible, just not likely. Jackpot appears central and southern VA, been that way for a couple days, and to get a sizable shift at day 4-5 that brings it 150-200 miles south is going to be difficult. P-type maps from 6Z GFS aren't encouraging,given that track. You're right ... the only reasonable hope for a lot of folks on the southern fringe (like the Sandhills) to see anything of note is for continued ticks south. As the likely last reasonable shot at snow this year, the next couple of days will be torture for a lot of our folks. It's like being on the NCAA bubble, then watching mid-major upsets take the last remaining slots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At 4-5 days out nothing is set in stone. It "seems" from what I've read there should not be much more of a north trend. Blocking is too strong. I think we are looking good if the current depiction holds or if it actually verifies more south. I would venture to say we will have lower snow ratioes with a system currently modeled. The euro last night showing .7 qpf as snow for RDU could potential equate as 5 inches or so. I'll take that and give Virginia their two feet. Now if we can get this thing to drop a little more south of course we get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My recommendation is if you want to see a good snow head to VA for this. this is all over the place some say head to va to see a good snow but I was reading one met this morning that said it looks like right now the heaviest axis for snow is in nc from what he is looking at. I guess by tomorrow we'll have a better handle on this. I was also reading last night or watching a video from a met and he was saying the blocking in the atlantic is to strong for the storm to get any further north. I guess va could be the furthest it goes the way it sounded from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 this is all over the place some say head to va to see a good snow but I was reading one met this morning that said it looks like right now the heaviest axis for snow is in nc from what he is looking at. What model is showing the heaviest axis of snow over NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think this needs its own thread now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What model is showing the heaviest axis of snow over NC? I have no idea, just saying from a reliable met that we all know said thats his opinion of what he is looking at. he is good and very reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What model is showing the heaviest axis of snow over NC? 00z GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z NAM is interesting. I think it's finally realizing that block is there and having a hard time figuring out what to do with our northern energy @60 it's almost hit a brick wall and the southern energy is stronger and there appears to be less separation It's the NAM so it's probably out to lunch but still interesting to see the difference between it and 6z at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think this needs its own thread now agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Burger who did you suggest about starting a storm thread ?? Think it's time yet ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 you act as if you already know the outcome based on computer models? I have a gut feeling NC will be where the axis of heavy snow is, but to tell anyone wanting snow that he/she is out of it is sort of low when you have no idea what will happen Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z NAM is interesting. I think it's finally realizing that block is there and having a hard time figuring out what to do with our northern energy @60 it's almost hit a brick wall and the southern energy is stronger and there appears to be less separation It's the NAM so it's probably out to lunch but still interesting to see the difference between it and 6z at the same time frame. I agree. The blocking is showing up much stronger on earlier frames of the NAM than it did on the 06z. I still wonder about the southern energy and how that plays in. Burger who did you suggest about starting a storm thread ?? Think it's time yet ?? Personally, I don't think we need to start a storm thread in this case until the OBS thread. It's not like we will be talking about anything else in March Pattern Thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I agree. The blocking is showing up much stronger on earlier frames of the NAM than it did on the 06z. I still wonder about the southern energy and how that plays in. Personally, I don't think we need to start a storm thread in this case until the OBS thread. It's not like we will be talking about anything else in March Pattern Thread. True... Point Taken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Discussion thread started here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39564-march-5-6-storm-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think this needs its own thread now Yep, but who wants to put their mojo on the line for the last great storm of 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 True... Point Taken... Also, unless NC or south truly has shot, might want to wait. This still could be vA only north storm. Like was mentioned, I don't trust that 850 track yet...for even staying where it is depicted to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You need to read (or reread) WeatherNC's post above. I did. Still sticking with what I said. Things look well. I would not be surprised to see the heavier snow rates shift a little further south by Wednesday. Still think we get at least 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I did. Still sticking with what I said. Things look well. I would not be surprised to see the heavier snow rates shift a little further south by Wednesday. Still think we get at least 6 inches of snow. I'm with ya, a lot say nc and some say va and some say both. if the blocking is a little stronger than depicted this will trend south a little more maybe. some models are starting to show stronger blocking, but I guess we don't want to strong of a block to go to far south, which I think at this point we don't have to worry about that far south this close to the event. Edit. hoping for a little more digging so this would dig around and cross sc to columbia sc to the coast. this would include a lot of us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm with ya, a lot say nc and some say va and some say both. if the blocking is a little stronger than depicted this will trend south a little more maybe. upstate south carolina maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I do have one question for someone with the knowledge will this storm be able to tap into the gulf to pull lots of moisture north or is it mostly going to have its own moisture without the gulf feed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It really sucks that the wave entering this week is so far north. The one coming later next week enters in southern California/baja. We will see if we have enough blocking and cold air. This week we do. The one thing I take away from this winter is horrible timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It really sucks that the wave entering this week is so far north. The one coming later next week enters in southern California/baja. We will see if we have enough blocking and cold air. This week we do. The one thing I take away from this winter is horrible timing. Never say never.... http://www.glenallenweather.com/links/snowmaps/1983/SE%20snowstorm%20mar24-25,%201983.pdf Was the second time in my life I had seen lightning and thunder in a snowstorm, first was March 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Never say never.... http://www.glenallenweather.com/links/snowmaps/1983/SE%20snowstorm%20mar24-25,%201983.pdf Was the second time in my life I had seen lightning and thunder in a snowstorm, first was March 1980. im watching it on the ensembles. It enters at a great latitude for us. We will need the blocking to stay in place another week. Hopefully it will work out. Its really far out tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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