March Pattern and Discussion

[AirNelson39]

Never happen with the surface temps

Are you serious? Do you know how to read or understand models this far out?? I GURANTEE you don't know jack compared to him so how about reading and never posting because you obviously don't understand anything. The temps WILL workout, mark my word.

[Shawn]

No,not new here.Besides the mountains on the 0Z Euro your surface temps are 40-45,dp's are 40 and you have se winds,anything else?You expect snow inland?

 

Edit:let me correct myself,this is when precip is falling

 

I don't mean to be jerky sounding.. but from what I have learned over the  years.. as long as snow is "going" to fall its always going to "cool it down", but in the end most people just talk about how all the snow falling is melting instantly and the surface stinks... then back to rain.. then back to snow... then mix... then huge flakes.. then rain... etc...  At least from my observations here especially from NC posters.

 

It is not going to snow in KCAE barring anything hisotrically major, a lot of areas are going to get shafted, where it does snow it might melt for some places, and thundersnow could easily turn into graupal just as it did here in KCAE two weekends ago.  Hell, most people and our local NOAA said it was hail too.  Someone should check 700MB omega/lift whatever.

 

On the flip side, some areas will get a crushing event.  I think mainly Northern NC/VA/Northward.  We shall seE!

 

Just remember that you can go from rain to snow, then back to rain very quickly.

 

Then, dont forget about the dreaded dryslot.

 

 

EDIT: and i can't count on 10 hands how many times people hyping a histroic SE Wintry event have been wrong this year.  that includes everyone. ("heaviest rates ever, 2 or 3 inches an hour or more etc")

 

 

 I don't mean to sound mean or anything, but its even worse when people get so excited and then get crushed when something doesn't work out after they've told all the friends and family.  I've been there.

Good luck everyone!

[jaxjagman]

Are you serious? Do you know how to read or understand models this far out?? I GURANTEE you don't know jack compared to him so how about reading and never posting because you obviously don't understand anything. The temps WILL workout, mark my word.

Some of you act like this is a -1000 storm in the winter

,,its not,you need something stronger than this.Look up north,this is not freaking Jan..lol

[metalicwx366]

Some of you act like this is a -1000 storm in the spring,,its not,you need something stronger than this.Look up north,this is not freaking Jan..lol

Lol thank you. This is a MA and or NE storm. At most you guys should expect a sloppy dusting to an inch. This is March. You don't just look at the 850mb temps to determine if its snow. Surface temps were a torch. And the JMA shows precip in 24 hour intervals so most likely cold chasing moisture for some that think it was good.

[LovingGulfLows]

Are you serious? Do you know how to read or understand models this far out?? I GURANTEE you don't know jack compared to him so how about reading and never posting because you obviously don't understand anything. The temps WILL workout, mark my word.

 

 

So you're model hugging this far out? We haven't even seen the infamous northern trend. How about you stop insulting people for giving their opinion on what might happen just because you don't like what they are saying. His prediction has more of a chance of happening then a huge 1-2 feet snowstorm for parts of NC in March. Climatology generally wins out this far in Winter/early in spring. Many mets in the northern forums also believe this won't be a huge snowstorm for NC.

[tonysc]

i don't believe that

I don't believe it either, even the NWS out of GSP is saying that accumulating snow cannot be ruled out, and they weren't talking about just the mountains.

[tonysc]

its spring time,it will take a historic change for SC

 

It's not spring time. I lived in Greenwood, SC all of my life and I've seen several deep snows in late March, and Spring begins March 20th.

[jaxjagman]

It's not spring time. I lived in Greenwood, SC all of my life and I've seen several deep snows in late March, and Spring begins March 20th.

You really expect snow in SC when a weak 1004 goes north of you?

[tarheelwx]

06z pretty much keeps the threat for central NC into central/eastern VA.  Low gets to somewhere between Elizabeth City and Nags Head and stops/spins/strengthens and then moves slowly south and east.

TW

[Poimen]

6Z GFS looks much like the EURO. Things are getting bad when I can't sleep at 430 in the morning

[NavarreDon]

Part of GSP's overnight long term:

 

THICKNESSES SHOULD CRASH WED MORNING AS THE COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMTRANSITIONS TOWARD THE COAST. QG FORCING SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL JUSTAHEAD OF THE LOW TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...WITH SOME DEGREE OFFRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING TRAILING THE DEPARTINGLOW THROUGH THE PIEDMONT WED AFTN/EVENING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATESUNDER THE PASSING UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCTTHUNDERSTORMS/THUNDERSNOW AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ONSIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MTNS AND ALSO NC FOOTHILL ANDPIEDMONT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MORE OF ARAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR ANDPOINTS SOUTH...BUT LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE THEHWO MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

[packfan98]

6z gfs looked to be about 50 miles north of the 0z run with less precip due to a weaker surface low.

[IWC]

6Z GFS looks much like the EURO. Things are getting bad when I can't sleep at 430 in the morning

Some how I know the feeling...

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

No one outside the mountains will see anything

 

Edit:but rain

 

 

you act as if you already know the outcome based on computer models?

 

I have a gut feeling NC will be where the axis of heavy snow is, but to tell anyone wanting snow that he/she is out of it is sort of low when you have no idea what will happen

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

No,not new here.Besides the mountains on the 0Z Euro your surface temps are 40-45,dp's are 40 and you have se winds,anything else?You expect snow inland?

 

Edit:let me correct myself,this is when precip is falling

 

 

this shows you have zero experience with what happens when upper forcing, steep lapse rates and strong upward velocities crash a temperature column from the top down to the ground

 

if projections hold with the upper low moving over Upstate SC to Charlotte, (after rain falls Tuesday night for most if not all areas where snow will happen) the NC mountains to GSO to Raleigh will get heavy snow with this setup cool guy,

 

I hope you have a front row seat    to watch two feet fall over NC from your pad in middle TN

 

of course, if the upper low goes a tad north of where projections stand now, then VA/north primarily gets hit

 

keep focusing on surface temps    and look like a babbling fool when this thing is over... my advice to you: take Wake4est's advice to the board when he said, read more, post less and enjoy your dry air in TN

[Huffwx]

this shows you have zero experience with what happens when upper forcing, steep lapse rates and strong upward velocities crash a temperature column from the top down to the ground

 

as projections show now with the upper low moving over Upstate SC to Charlotte, (after rain falls Tuesday night for most if not all areas where snow will happen) the NC mountains to GSO to Raleigh will get heavy snow with this setup jack, hope you have a front row seat    to watch from your pad in middle TN

 

if the upper low goes north from there, then VA gets hit

 

keep focusing on surface temps and look like a moron when this thing is over... my advice to you: read more, post less and enjoy your dry air in TN

 

 

You're a fooking kook away from being DT's padawan learner.  

Your post is excellent-- and Robert has taken the time to educate this forum OVER and OVER about closed ULL's,,

[HKY_WX]

I think the pattern really favors NC here, with the setup over the northern atlantic being ideal for suppression. The only issue I have w/ this scenario is the 5h evolution on the gfs/ec. It's rare a cutoff over wisconsin is going to dive all the way off of SC. I think we'll see this evolve to a more rounded traditional march cutoff scenario as we go over time. In short, I think the models are allowing this system to get too far east before it starts to be suppressed south. I think they will pick up on this in time. I really like NC and southern VA on this one.

[Tacoma]

wow, so it sounds like confidence is growing for upstate,wnc s.va e.tenn. n.ga for some heavier snow on tuesday?  or do we still need this to trend a little more south? 

 

EDIT.  guess I should have said most of nc the way it sounds.  looks like the bulls eye of the storm has moved south from last night.  it was central va when I last looked last night.  I know a lot will still change.

[MillerA]

GSP Disco: 

 

 

Long term /Monday night through Friday/... as of 310 am Saturday...there is generally good consensus among the various models on a deepening low pressure system moving southeast through the Midwest on Tuesday...crossing the forecast area on Wednesday...then deepening further along the immediate East Coast Wednesday night. However...differences among the models in the surface low and 850 mb low center tracks will play a critical role in precipitation type and amount. There is good agreement that isentropic lift ahead of the system will return to the region late Monday night...with the best belt of upglide across The Heart of the area midday Tuesday. Profiles support mainly rain on the warm advection side of the system...but with freezing rain possible in spots at onset...especially across the northern NC mountains. Thicknesses should crash Wednesday morning as the cold low pressure system transitions toward the coast. Qg forcing should be plentiful just ahead of the low Tuesday night and Wednesday morning...with some degree of frontogenesis and deformation zone forcing trailing the departing low through the Piedmont Wednesday aftn/evening. Very steep lapse rates under the passing upper low should support at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms/thundersnow at times. Confidence is highest on significant accumulating snow over the mountains and also NC foothill and Piedmont locations along and north of Interstate 40. More of a rain/snow mix is expected toward the Interstate 85 corridor and points south...but likely ending as snow showers. Will continue the severe weather potential statement mention for this potentially significant winter storm system. A warmer and Dry Ridge pattern will return Thursday through Friday...with temperatures slowly rebounding to within 5 degrees of normal. 

 

 

 

[Tacoma]

 

East Coast Monster Storm Risk Next Week

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist March 02, 2013; 5:56 AM

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Storm scenarios for next week's storm.

A wintry system that will make a cross-country tour beginning this weekend has the potential to develop into a powerful, damaging and very disruptive storm along the East Coast next week.

 

 

• 
  Storm Next Week Versus Deadly Storm of '62 March 02, 2013; 6:45 AM

  The storm that could blast the East Coast on March 6-7, 2013, may bear similarities and impact to a storm on March 6-7, 1962, in much of the same area.

[Tacoma]

GSP Disco: 

 

 

Long term /Monday night through Friday/... as of 310 am Saturday...there is generally good consensus among the various models on a deepening low pressure system moving southeast through the Midwest on Tuesday...crossing the forecast area on Wednesday...then deepening further along the immediate East Coast Wednesday night. However...differences among the models in the surface low and 850 mb low center tracks will play a critical role in precipitation type and amount. There is good agreement that isentropic lift ahead of the system will return to the region late Monday night...with the best belt of upglide across The Heart of the area midday Tuesday. Profiles support mainly rain on the warm advection side of the system...but with freezing rain possible in spots at onset...especially across the northern NC mountains. Thicknesses should crash Wednesday morning as the cold low pressure system transitions toward the coast. Qg forcing should be plentiful just ahead of the low Tuesday night and Wednesday morning...with some degree of frontogenesis and deformation zone forcing trailing the departing low through the Piedmont Wednesday aftn/evening. Very steep lapse rates under the passing upper low should support at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms/thundersnow at times. Confidence is highest on significant accumulating snow over the mountains and also NC foothill and Piedmont locations along and north of Interstate 40. More of a rain/snow mix is expected toward the Interstate 85 corridor and points south...but likely ending as snow showers. Will continue the severe weather potential statement mention for this potentially significant winter storm system. A warmer and Dry Ridge pattern will return Thursday through Friday...with temperatures slowly rebounding to within 5 degrees of normal. 

I sure hope we don't waste some of the precip with rain.  hope its cold enough at the onset

[MillerA]

Matthew has updated his blog:

 

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

 

Allan, too:

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/update-on-march-6th-winter-weather-potential#sthash.cfzjfPPg.uxfs

[franklin NCwx]

I sure hope we don't waste some of the precip with rain. hope its cold enough at the onset

it will start as rain and rain for awhile.

[buckeyefan1]

No,not new here.Besides the mountains on the 0Z Euro your surface temps are 40-45,dp's are 40 and you have se winds,anything else?You expect snow inland?

 

Edit:let me correct myself,this is when precip is falling

Let me give you some friendly advice......read more and post less 

[DaculaWeather]

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1319Z SAT MAR 02 2013

 

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

NCEP IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL
WINTER STORM IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD DURING THIS NEXT WEEK. A CWD DECLARATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT.. WE'LL PROVIDE UPDATES TO THIS STATUS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[beanskip]

Not much talk about the 6z GFS -- probably because it trended north from the prior two runs. Looking at the position of the 850 low, at 93 hours, 6z GFS has it over the Indiana/KY border (YUCK!) while at 0z 99 hours it was over south central KY.

At 99 hours on the 6z it's over the Tri Cities of Tenn. -- at the same time on the 0z it was more like AVL.

At 105 -- Statesville vs. York, SC on 0z.

 

Two things:

1)No matter how small, any trend north is a killer.

2) I don't care how much snow a clown map or other map shows for me, if it comes from a scenario where the 850 low passes to my north or overhead, I'm just not going to believe it.

 

Hopefully 6z just a hiccup -- with some south trending happening last night, was hoping that would continue for a few runs -- give us some cushion.

Great job on the Euro PBP last night, btw. Very easy to follow. Still holding out hope, but the 6z GFS is NOT what the CLT corridor is looking for.

[DaculaWeather]

Just out of curiosity what is a CWD declaration? Haven't heard that term used before.

It is this. Unnecessary operations are stopped, and all focus is on the flow of weather data and information:

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd99-8.htm

[WeatherNC]

From the 0z Euro, RDU is ~0.7" as SN with changeover early Wednesday afternoon, PGV ~0.3" white, changing over late evening, RIC gets absolutely destroyed, >2.5" as snow dominant type, right on that line at the height of it.  The guidance seems pretty locked on taking the 850 low though central and eastern NC, with the surface passing near or over HAT, maybe coming off around Elizabeth City before retrograding slowly SE as the system stacks.  In NC, we need that 850 track to shift well south over SC, and the surface to come off around Myrtle Beach-Wilmington.  That is a pretty sizable shift at this range, not impossible, just not likely.  Jackpot appears central and southern VA, been that way for a couple days, and to get a sizable shift at day 4-5 that brings it 150-200 miles south is going to be difficult.

[Buddy1987]

It is this. Unnecessary operations are stopped, and all focus is on the flow of weather data and information:

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd99-8.htm

Pretty sweet when you see this come about no matter what kind of precip will be occurring.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like things went well overnight. I knew this would come back to a NC storm. Might not be a foot of snow, but I expect it to be a decent half foot at least.