burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here is how 850's look....@108 1/2 inch has fallen and 850 line is running roughly from CLT to GSO....@114 850 line is running just east of RDU almost in a straight line across eastern NC in which another .25 or so has fallen in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What part of VA? I'm mobile and can't check at the moment. Pretty much all of VA. Western side of VA doesn't fair too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So, the GFS and the Euro tonight are now showing a doozy of a storm QPF-wise. We may have flooding rains and then a massive winter storm back-to-back. That ought to be interesting (if it happens). Something very similar happened earlier this winter...forgot which storm...it was the one with the incredible rates that produced 1-3 here after inches of rain. Snow stuck to grass good but will not accumulate on moving water(runoff) or puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Pretty much all of VA. Western side of VA doesn't fair too well. Hate to ask the same a similar question, but even the southeast part (Norfolk) looks ok? Does the low blowup east of Hatteras? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Something very similar happened earlier this winter...forgot which storm...it was the one with the incredible rates that produced 1-3 here after inches of rain. Snow stuck to grass good but will not accumulate on moving water(runoff) or puddles. Now that I think about it, the March 2009 storm was quite similar with a lot of rain preceding it, too. Another positive we have to work with is that soil temperatures should actually be pretty freaking solid given the time of year. Normally, this time of year you kind of have to battle that (though if we get the heavy snow the GFS/Euro are showing now, it won't matter much), but it's going to be cold in the run-up to this potential storm. Soil temps might be near 40 at the onset, which should be fine. These soil temps are pretty remarkable considering the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Hate to ask the same a similar question, but even the southeast part (Norfolk) looks ok? Does the low blowup east of Hatteras? Thanks You look golden but be aware I have no idea how your climate typically works being so close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Alright folks I'm off to bed. Some other experts can pick apart my PBP. See you guys and gals at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This thing still can shift either way so could get a lot better or even worse. Hopefully better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Pretty much all of VA. Western side of VA doesn't fair too well.Appreciate it.For any S VA folks lurking, midlo says QPF in ROA and LYH 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This thing still can shift either way so could get a lot better or even worse. Hopefully better As much as I don't like you I agree. How things get better from showing a foot 5 days out is beyond me...things change and usually trend north. I can really only see things getting worse if they were to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The way this thing just stalls is phenomenal. This isn't your typical NC 3-6 hours of heavy snow quick-hitter. This thing is a long-running heavy snow event. Huge potential with the Euro's scenario. I don't know the last time we've had a system just stall off the NC coast and dump, dump, and dump some more like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As much as I don't like you I agree. How things get better from showing a foot 5 days out is beyond me...things change and usually trend north. I could really only see things get worse if they were to change. I highly doubt it would go any further north. Euro is picking up on the blocking...GFS has a somewhat similar solution as well as the CMC. The true test will be tomorrow night and Sunday at 12z. If they say game on this sucker probably is not trending north at all except for the precip shield. In fact I would be willing to wager we see a slight jog south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 From WxSouth on Facebook, about 15 mins ago: European Run tonight smashes Virginia with extreme snowfall rates, and northern and eastern NC as well. It literally bombs the storm out so rapidly and stalls the surface low in eastern NC that a blizzard develops with howling winds and furious snowrates and thundersnow from Greensboro to Richmond and much of the Old Dominion and northern, eastern Tarheel state. It takes a different, rather bizarre path to get to this point, but it remains consistent on hammering much of NC, VA and Delaware, eastern West Virginia. Big snow winners would be eastern half of VA straight to the coast, and north central NC to northern Outer Banks.Starts as rain east of Roanoke, but all areas would change over if this is right. Looks like a foot of snow easily, so this model and GFS model are being consistent, but have slightly different paths, so GFS is further south, ECMWF further north. The trend here is that if you live in NC/VA/DE/MD region the hunt is on for a major mid week storm, possibly reaching major top 5 storm levels in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I highly doubt it would go any further north. Euro is picking up on the blocking...GFS has a somewhat similar solution as well as the CMC. The true test will be tomorrow night and Sunday at 12z. If they say game on this sucker probably is not trending north at all except for the precip shield. In fact I would be willing to wager we see a slight jog south. 850'S -5 in March?,This isnt winter no more,its not as great as you make it sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As much as I don't like you I agree. How things get better from showing a foot 5 days out is beyond me...things change and usually trend north. I can really only see things getting worse if they were to change. Ha man you hurt my feelings with that comment. That was almost a personal attack. But anyway ive been around longer than you and remember everything looking great 24 hours to seeing nothing verifying. So yea he can get worse. This is the SE not NE so it is hard to get big snows here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 From WxSouth on Facebook, about 15 mins ago: European Run tonight smashes Virginia with extreme snowfall rates, and northern and eastern NC as well. It literally bombs the storm out so rapidly and stalls the surface low in eastern NC that a blizzard develops with howling winds and furious snowrates and thundersnow from Greensboro to Richmond and much of the Old Dominion and northern, eastern Tarheel state. It takes a different, rather bizarre path to get to this point, but it remains consistent on hammering much of NC, VA and Delaware, eastern West Virginia. Big snow winners would be eastern half of VA straight to the coast, and north central NC to northern Outer Banks.Starts as rain east of Roanoke, but all areas would change over if this is right. Looks like a foot of snow easily, so this model and GFS model are being consistent, but have slightly different paths, so GFS is further south, ECMWF further north. The trend here is that if you live in NC/VA/DE/MD region the hunt is on for a major mid week storm, possibly reaching major top 5 storm levels in some areas. Oh Lord, it's a Carolina/Virginia Blizzard! I got time for dat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 WxSouth blend Euro with GFS and CLT would do well. Euro is a strange run tonight, but ends up with same result. its evolution doesn't look like anything I've ever witnessed on upper low formation. GFS makes more sense in its detached 3 contour bowling ball, and fits the bill of so many upper low, but hard to go against Euro on big East coast events like where blocking is involved. I don't think no model has it right just yet, we'll know tomorrow on when the ULL in the dakotas begins to dive. The earlier it does, the less likely EURO stall and phase occurs. But Euro could be right in its evolution, just never seen that before. Either way, NC gets hit hard, but not so much CLT region on ECMWF. You'd need it to go slightly more diggy, then slow down. If GFS is right, you'll do extremely well Wednesday under the def. band, with thundersnow . Too early to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looking at the EURO snowfall maps...this certainly has the chance to be something of epic proportions Greensboro, NC north-east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 WxSouth blend Euro with GFS and CLT would do well. Euro is a strange run tonight, but ends up with same result. its evolution doesn't look like anything I've ever witnessed on upper low formation. GFS makes more sense in its detached 3 contour bowling ball, and fits the bill of so many upper low, but hard to go against Euro on big East coast events like where blocking is involved. I don't think no model has it right just yet, we'll know tomorrow on when the ULL in the dakotas begins to dive. The earlier it does, the less likely EURO stall and phase occurs. But Euro could be right in its evolution, just never seen that before. Either way, NC gets hit hard, but not so much CLT region on ECMWF. You'd need it to go slightly more diggy, then slow down. If GFS is right, you'll do extremely well Wednesday under the def. band, with thundersnow . Too early to say for sure. Never happen with the surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If this does stall over eastern NC not in the ocean!. The foothills region on east will pile up snow, enhanced by orographic lift, which models don't catch on until later on in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If this does stall over eastern NC not in the ocean!. The foothills region on east will pile up snow, enhanced by orographic lift, which models don't catch on until later on in the game. Foothills on east...not sure if I have seen a storm do that. Gut feeling is Greensboro north-east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Foothills on east...not sure if I have seen a storm do that. Gut feeling is Greensboro north-east. Maybe I should have said Norhern Foothils on East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You might have a shot at verifying yet? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I agree with Pilot.. if the orientation is right from the ocean it can really juice up totals in the lee of the blue ridge... see it quite often in tropical systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You might have a shot at verifying yet? Lol 46.8. I hope we can continue tracking the strom all the way and it doesn't leave us high and dry or soaking wet in the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 HRRR looks mighty interesting for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 No one outside the mountains will see anything Edit:but rain i don't believe that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 No one outside the mountains will see anything Edit:but rain You must be new to this game....... the surface temp doesn't mean jack with strong ull's. If they take the right track, an area can go fom 50 degrees to right at freezing in less than one hour. I have seen it happen too many times. Sit back, relax, and concentrate on the track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You must be new to this game....... the surface temp doesn't mean jack with strong ull's. If they take the right track, an area can go fom 50 degrees to right at freezing in less than one hour. I have seen it happen too many times. Sit back, relax, and concentrate on the track.. No,not new here.Besides the mountains on the 0Z Euro your surface temps are 40-45,dp's are 40 and you have se winds,anything else?You expect snow inland? Edit:let me correct myself,this is when precip is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 woa, looks like the eastward apps are getting upsloping now...not every day you see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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