Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Wait, the Euro has a 1006 mb low off of the SC coast at hr 168. WTF? EDIT: And a closed ULL south of Atlanta. Miller B? Score?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The run to run consistency on the Euro is horrible, last night's Ensemble spaghetti plots looked like, well, spaghetti. So looking at deterministic runs right now is even more fruitless than normal at the 6-8 day range. Chill out and wait a few days when "maybe" things will settle down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It is ridiculous how much the models are all over the place. Tell 'em Brick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It looks like it stalls out and just pounds NC. Ridiculous. I think it does to NC what it did to the Mid-Atlantic last run (maybe not as severe), though I'm just going off of 24-hour panels. Whatever the case the solution is ridiculous and probably wrong. I wouldn't mind cashing out, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It looks like it stalls out and just pounds NC. Ridiculous. I think it does to NC what it did to the Mid-Atlantic last run, though I'm just going off of 24-hour panels. Whatever the case the solution is ridiculous and probably wrong. I wouldn't mind cashing out, though... No, this one has to be right for sure! At least I can dream it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I think even if the wacky GFS and Euro solutions verify, it's a loser for all except maybe mountains and extreme northern NC. Even if a low pops off Charleston, it will have gotten there by passing over or north of most on this board -- that's just not going to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Lol... is that the Seattle to Charleston connection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I think even if the wacky GFS and Euro solutions verify, it's a loser for all except maybe mountains and extreme northern NC. Even if a low pops off Charleston, it will have gotten there by passing over or north of most on this board -- that's just not going to work. I might be wrong, but it seems that the Euro transferring energy off the coast in a Miller B fashion (24-hour panels make it hard to say for sure, though). Of course, I can't think of the last time a Miller B worked out well for us, though we rarely see the low transfer to off the SC coast (usually, its further north which ensures screwage) I'm sure it's wrong and the solution looks ridiculous, but it would be interesting to watch unfold from a meteorological point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 What are the odds of the Euro and GFS having the same wacky solution on the track of a surface low due south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 If everyone wants this to workout we need the blocking to be centered more over hudson bay, and or the energy to come ashore at a much lower latitude. I doubt it comes in thru southern California. Last nights gfs run had it come thru northern California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Guess we'll just have to see what the models show later on. They are crazy all over the place right now. Maybe there is just so much going on with this pattern that they can't handle it until 24 to 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 If the Euro verifies like that it will be a major snowstorm for central/eastern NC/VA. ....Unless surface temps are way up, which I can't see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The 12z euro precip field on 3/6 is just laughable and the way the past few years have gone for my area I could see it happening. At hr 174 w/ a 1004mb low off the SC/NC coast there is no precip in NC. All precip is in eastern SC and then Va. north....LOL. On a serious note the 850's look good but 2m temps are horrible. Most of that has to do w/ the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The 12z euro precip field on 3/6 is just laughable and the way the past few years have gone for my area I could see it happening. At hr 174 w/ a 1004mb low off the SC/NC coast there is no precip in NC. All precip is in eastern SC and then Va. north....LOL.On a serious note the 850's look good but 2m temps are horrible. Most of that has to do w/ the timing. If that idiotic solution pans out where the low bombs out just off the SC coast, there will be snow and lots of it. Unless the surface temps are blazing, that's a snowstorm. Will it happen? Haha! No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Not sure it's laughable -- basically, the same thing that happens with all Miller B's (a big precip void where the switch happens) is happening in this case. There is no initial surge of Gulf moisture so only the Atlanta fetch is tapped. I think that moisture field is very plausible (even though the solution isn't). The 12z euro precip field on 3/6 is just laughable and the way the past few years have gone for my area I could see it happening. At hr 174 w/ a 1004mb low off the SC/NC coast there is no precip in NC. All precip is in eastern SC and then Va. north....LOL. On a serious note the 850's look good but 2m temps are horrible. Most of that has to do w/ the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Not sure it's laughable -- basically, the same thing that happens with all Miller B's (a big precip void where the switch happens) is happening in this case. There is no initial surge of Gulf moisture so only the Atlanta fetch is tapped. I think that moisture field is very plausible (even though the solution isn't). I agree the moisture field is very plausible. What's laughable would be moisture to the south of me and north of me. The way it has gone here lately I could see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Ahhhh -- yes, laughable in a demonic sort of way. Roger that. My fear is that people see a strengthening low off of the S.C. coast and immediately think Carolinas snowstorm. As you know, not necessarily the case. I agree the moisture field is very plausible. What's laughable would be moisture to the south of me and north of me. The way it has gone here lately I could see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well, with the way the winter has been the last two years, this solution makes as much sense as any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Ahhhh -- yes, laughable in a demonic sort of way. Roger that. My fear is that people see a strengthening low off of the S.C. coast and immediately think Carolinas snowstorm. As you know, not necessarily the case. That's what I think. Granted, I can only see the 24 hour panels, but with a strengthening ULL over south central GA that moves off the SC/NC coast at 192, while sparking a surface low right off the SC coast that bombs out while crawling up the coast, to have NC completely shut out in the precip department would be less believable than a 10 GFS snowstorm in the middle of last winter. I guess it could happen, but no way things play out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 That's what I think. Granted, I can only see the 24 hour panels, but with a strengthening ULL over south central GA that moves off the SC/NC coast at 192, while sparking a surface low right off the SC coast that bombs out while crawling up the coast, to have NC completely shut out in the precip department would be less believable than a 10 GFS snowstorm in the middle of last winter. I guess it could happen, but no way things play out that way. someone has to take the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 That's what I think. Granted, I can only see the 24 hour panels, but with a strengthening ULL over south central GA that moves off the SC/NC coast at 192, while sparking a surface low right off the SC coast that bombs out while crawling up the coast, to have NC completely shut out in the precip department would be less believable than a 10 GFS snowstorm in the middle of last winter. I guess it could happen, but no way things play out that way. Of course this could be the one time it does happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Matthew East just posted this on facebook. Wow, if the Euro were to phase these vorts at this time instead of later, the Carolinas would have a huge system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Fwiw the gefs are a little farther south than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Matthew East just posted this on facebook. I'm not following what he's trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It is ridiculous how much the models are all over the place. Your tax dollars at work. We should sue them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I'm not following what he's trying to say. I translated it as, If the models did something else we would have a different result. Not exactly shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I translated it as, If the models did something else we would have a different result. Not exactly shocking. That's been the case all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Matthew East just posted this on facebook. The 0z Euro phased them a hair to soon, the 12z phased a hair to late, we obviously need it to meet in the middle and be a hair further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I translated it as, If the models did something else we would have a different result. Not exactly shocking. lol. Yeah I figured, but I'm not sure if he was saying it was close, what vorts he was talking about and what two different time periods he was referencing. Just didn't follow. Hopefully what ever he wanted to happen will happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Kind of reminds me of Dec 2010, we need a perfectly timed phase. At this range the the Dec 2010 was similarly tracking the low further north too. Below are the heights from the Dec 2010 storm for Dec 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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