GaffneyPeach Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know everybody is focused on next week, but the latest RAP is really jack potting the upstate this morning. If we can wetbulb enough to get snow to stick I’m starting to think somebody could get 2 or 3 inches out of this by 10am tomorrow morning. This run gives mby over 3/10’s liquid; it’ll be interesting to see how close it comes to verifying... I've been focused! Focused on next week, too. I hope you get something akin to what we had two weeks ago. If that were to happen here once (or twice) more, I'll call it a decent Winter. It wasn't epic in AlphaMaleTestosteroneDrivenMyDadCanBeatUpYourDadDCA/MA/NE fashion but in good 'ole Southern Girl terms...it was just about right, Y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The GEFS is quite a bit farther north than the Op run, keeps even NYC and southern New England in play. The Op is a pretty far south outlier. Good news: The UKIE continues way south. In other words, we STILL really have no clue. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 WxSouth45 minutes ago Just for kicks, looking at the 3 hour precip panels and convective pattern on this run drops a lot of convective snow immediately after the changeover in western Piedmont NC and southwest VA early Wed, and has 12" to 20" falling in Southwest Virginia in this storm. I doubt that much, but the track of the 5H features and its overall progression would be a big hit in NC and southern half of VA with some serious snowfall rates and thundersnow. I'm not sold on this track, but GFS is being pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 WxSouth45 minutes ago Just for kicks, looking at the 3 hour precip panels and convective pattern on this run drops a lot of convective snow immediately after the changeover in western Piedmont NC and southwest VA early Wed, and has 12" to 20" falling in Southwest Virginia in this storm. I doubt that much, but the track of the 5H features and its overall progression would be a big hit in NC and southern half of VA with some serious snowfall rates and thundersnow. I'm not sold on this track, but GFS is being pretty consistent. GFS consistent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 When does euro initialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro out to 60 is further north...we'll see when it takes the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS consistent? Yep. It's amazing how far knowing how to read a map will get you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @72 it's further north than the 12z run and not as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's possible the Euro could be slower but it's tough to tell since it's 6 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro is not looking good out to 84. Energy is not closed off and is north of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @96 it finally closes off still north though to my untrained eye. 12z has it at the same time frame around southern Iowa and Mizz while the 00z has it closer to Minnesota and northern Iowa. Looks stronger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Starts diving @102...looks a little slower now compared to 12z. We'll see if it ends up ticking south in the end. Doesn't look like it's gonna cut it for NC though but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 SFC QPF much better @108 has some good snow cranking in the mountains of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @114 it's south of the 12z. Looks like snow from GSO east. VA gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @120 RDU and points north in VA BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @120 that thing is cranking just kills VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So, a good run for central NC, then? I was getting worried looking at the Instant Weather Maps. It sounds different than the Euro, though, so things are still up in the air. Nevertheless, excitement is building...... Thanks for the info, as always, Burger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @126 more moisture in NC....would not be shocked if CLT area ends up 2-4 and GSO 4-8 with RDU 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 RDU ends up with around 2 inches of QPF on this run....bulk of it looks to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Thanks for the updates burger.. I am liking the trends for now.. mountains and foothills area looks pretty good still... and even tonight the radar is looking more promising for a dusting to an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GAME ON FOLKS! Euro says YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The Euro is all over the place. Might as well throw the model in a blender. Euro says NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GAME ON FOLKS! Euro says YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @126 more moisture in NC....would not be shocked if CLT area ends up 2-4 and GSO 4-8 with RDU 12. Thanks a lot for the play-by-play! Really appreciate the update!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yep thanks burger. Maybe we all get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Just to clarify...it looks like RDU would be around 1 inch of rain and 1 inch of snow. I didn't realize it really blew up the moisture before the snow started. CLT west is right on the line during the heart of it and is very close I-40 could be big winners as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 VA would have to be in around 2 feet of snow. I mean it just gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 A lot of rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So, the GFS and the Euro tonight are now showing a doozy of a storm QPF-wise. We may have flooding rains and then a massive winter storm back-to-back. That ought to be interesting (if it happens). Burger brings us good PBP mojo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 VA would have to be in around 2 feet of snow. I mean it just gets crushed. What part of VA? I'm mobile and can't check at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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