WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Canadian looks like the GFS and UKMET, except deeper, starts to bomb off HAT as it heads ene ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yes, this is breaking news for sure -- CMC had closed low over KY/TN line on 12z run at 120 hours. On 0z run at 108, low is now over extreme NORTH GEORGIA. Fantastic news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 CMC at 108 -- surface low off ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Saw WXBell maps. They look closer to reality. I guess it could be possible you get snow on the very back side as it wraps up deeply. I'm defnitely not expecting much of anything Wintry here in the Midlands of SC. In the past, we have done okay in March, but I don't think this track will cut it. Within 5 days or less now, so becomming obvious that this will be NC northward. Robert said he thought the synoptics were incorrect for Eastern NC/VA and it would be colder basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM takes GFS like track, bombs SLP over Hatteras. We need it to bomb off ILM, not Hatteras. Alas, I have the distinct feeling this will eventually be a DelMarVa bomb...if it ever does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well now, if the Euro would move this thing back to the 12z yesterday with it's midnight run...we could be back onto something for NC/SC/N. Ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Meteogram website printing out ~5 inches from 00Z GFS for KHKY. A continued step up from 12Z to 18Z to 00Z. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Hey WeatherNC -- would love your thoughts on a) slowing trend with the upper low -- is this good or bad? Why? GFS trending toward sharper east coast trough ahead of our low -- what effect does/doesn't that have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Partials look marginal at best. We would be looking at rate driven slop (probably 5:1) and any slacking off intensity would mean people could switch back to rain and/or a rain/snow mix (see the 1/17 bust in portions of the triangle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Meteogram website printing out ~5 inches from 00Z GFS for KHKY. A continued step up from 12Z to 18Z to 00Z. Nice. Using the same datasource it has KCAE with 3.0 of snow from 18z and 0.0 from 00z. I'm almost positive the snow won't happen for us. The thermals on that 00z GFS may be an issue also for a lot more. Hopefully not. (edit, eyewall beat me to it!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well now, if the Euro would move this thing back to the 12z yesterday with it's midnight run...we could be back onto something for NC/SC/N. Ga Back on? Are you saying that the Euro is the model that will bring those areas back into a possible snow storm (they haven't actually been out of the picture for 2 days now)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The Canadian is fantastic for VA. Decent for many locales in NC. This is hour 113: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Back on? Are you saying that the Euro is the model that will bring those areas back into a possible snow storm (they haven't actually been out of the picture for 2 days now)? The upstate of SC seems to fare much better than here with this possibly with the right amount of moisture I hope.. BTW, thanks for the posts earlier correcting my comments about relying on a phase. I do now agree (i was sloppy posting last night) that the ULL is important in this scenario as you stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 The upstate of SC seems to fare much better with this possibly. BTW, thanks for the posts earlier correcting my comments about relying on a phase. I do now agree (i was sloppy posting last night) that the ULL is important in this scenario as you stated. Technically, I didn't quite express it properly myself. I'd say NE GA, Upstate SC to CLT have been the most consistently shown spots for something. Which makes me really suspicious to be honest. There will be a fine line between people who have to go to work, and people who get to stay home with this. I utterly love/hate ULL tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm sorry, but you're going to have to join Cold Rain and I in "Boundary Layer Time Out." Partials look marginal at best. We would be looking at rate driven slop (probably 5:1) and any slacking off intensity would mean people could switch back to rain and/or a rain/snow mix (see the 1/17 bust in portions of the triangle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm sorry, but you're going to have to join Cold Rain and I in "Boundary Layer Time Out." Mmmmm - B.L.T.....gurgle gurgle gurgle..... I'll concede this Skip - if I am still under the gun come Monday evening, I will be legitimately concerned with my temp profile. The January ULL burned me with those 925's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well the bad news is the GFS ENS is further north. It does look to blow up a low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The Canadian is fantastic for VA. Decent for many locales in NC. This is hour 113: Looks like RAH would get crushed. Verbatim that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know everybody is focused on next week, but the latest RAP is really jack potting the upstate this morning. If we can wetbulb enough to get snow to stick I’m starting to think somebody could get 2 or 3 inches out of this by 10am tomorrow morning. This run gives mby over 3/10’s liquid; it’ll be interesting to see how close it comes to verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Technically, I didn't quite express it properly myself. I'd say NE GA, Upstate SC to CLT have been the most consistently shown spots for something. Which makes me really suspicious to be honest. There will be a fine line between people who have to go to work, and people who get to stay home with this. I utterly love/hate ULL tracking. 50 miles shift can make or break the deal certainly. This event this weekend may give you guys a little something in the Upstate. I think the warm layer about 2000 feet thick will keep it liquid through the event in KCAE besides a couple wet flakes or sleet pellets. Hell, I think that would be the most we could get with the system we are speaking of now. I was glued to the models when that ULL tracked through here back in January and nothing but rain ofcourse. I already know just from tracking that ULL, that it's a headache and I don't envy it for a lot of forecasters who have to publically make forecasts. I figure if I stay pessimistic, if something does fall from the sky in the Midlands that's Wintry, I will be happier than getting let down of course. March has produced some decent events here, but this doesn't look like the one sadly. Also guys, if anyone wants to look at some analogs for areas of the United States based on current model runs to compare patterns/setups to, this site right here is amazing: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Also, does anyone have the super ensemble link that lists the analogs of current/future storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm saying yesterday's Euro was further south than the 12z today which had all the fun in VA. Now it appears the other models are staying further south. Will the Euro come back now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know everybody is focused on next week, but the latest RAP is really jack potting the upstate this morning. If we can wetbulb enough to get snow to stick I’m starting to think somebody could get 2 or 3 inches out of this by 10am tomorrow morning. This run gives mby over 3/10’s liquid; it’ll be interesting to see how close it comes to verifying... Good point. I haven't even paid attention to Saturday. I hope you finally land the snow marlin up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 this is Raleigh during the peak of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That being said the ENS still has snow for much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 this is Raleigh during the peak of the precip This is from another source. Am not sure if it was pay site material or just a FB type post: WxSouth GFS Upper low doesn't match synoptics correctly. Loses the cold air in eastern NC, east VA, which is extremely unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like the blocking is stronger on tonights runs. The speed of the upper low is slowing down. Im wondering if this has to do with more confluence in the ne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro will settle it in about an hour or so as usual, It probably want move much from 12z but I hope it drifts south some? My guess is they will all settle around the Euro track soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro will settle it in about an hour or so as usual, It probably want move much from 12z but I hope it drifts south some? My guess is they will all settle around the Euro track soon... I will admit right now that I would be surprised to see all other models suddenly break neck to the Euro in a non-split flow. It could happen. My biggest nagging concern that keeps haunting me and restricting my enthusiasm for the mid-week possibility is the PAC and how it may be continuing to muck around with the solutions. I am convinced that the models reliability have been compromised by it all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This has all the earmarks of the dreaded, "rain possibly mixing with or changing to snow before ending" forecast that is a death knell in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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