superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If this run verifies, there's going to be a ton of flooding, torrential rain followed by a foot of snow in northern NC. Nuts. Look at the 60-hour QPF totals from hr 126 (precip isn't even done yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Trying to find words that clear the "banter thread" bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Without the northern branch phasing in there is no reinforcing cold air and this you get a cold rain. Since the ULL is closed off as it heads east warm air just keeps shooting up its backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Classic. Laughed so hard woke the wife up. Please post clown maps and thanks for the pbp your 2 frames + faster than the rest of us. Clown maps on SV just have snow in the mountains and that is it...they are never good with these ULL. Someone else can post the real clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 WOW gives me 2"qpf and snow at that! BIG lol I should say I think it would be snow? 0.6 -0.2 1005 96 97 0.73 548 544 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.0 -1.1 1006 96 96 1.13 544 539 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.4 -3.9 1013 93 97 0.21 551 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At this point I will take the 1-1.2" qpf for ECG. Will worry about surface temps later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Never does go neg tilt and as Hberg said, no phasing on this run at all. Big time ULL tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I would expect a deeper than 1000mb low off HAT with the way 500 and 850 maps look, that is likely why the temps are not crashing on this model. This run basically takes the conveyer like the 12z Euro had and shifts it to the NC/VA boarder, back in to western NC and the upstate. Given how the euro crashed temps under that as the low deepened, that belt is likely SN from Oxford all the way back to Asheville with a sub 990, and it will move east. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I would expect a deeper than 1000mb low off HAT with the way 500 and 850 maps look, that is likely why the temps are not crashing on this model. This run basically takes the conveyer like the 12z Euro had and shifts it to the NC/VA boarder, back in to western NC and the upstate. Given how the euro crashed temps under that as the low deepened, that belt is likely SN from Oxford all the way back to Asheville with a sub 990, and it will move east. :-) Glad you made that point. I was looking at the surface pressure too and wondering why with such a great upper presentation, the surface pressure never really reflected that very much. Hopefully, we can nudge it south a bit and cool it off some as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I would expect a deeper than 1000mb low off HAT with the way 500 and 850 maps look, that is likely why the temps are not crashing on this model. This run basically takes the conveyer like the 12z Euro had and shifts it to the NC/VA boarder, back in to western NC and the upstate. Given how the euro crashed temps under that as the low deepened, that belt is likely SN from Oxford all the way back to Asheville with a sub 990, and it will move east. :-) Did all of us mention how badly you were missed most of this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 WOW gives me 2"qpf and snow at that! BIG lol I should say I think it would be snow? 0.6 -0.2 1005 96 97 0.73 548 544 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.0 -1.1 1006 96 96 1.13 544 539 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.4 -3.9 1013 93 97 0.21 551 Yeah, this is a huge event for you down to Winston and Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Can someone give a QPF totals for some major cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 just took a look at some skew-t's and it looks like it would be rain at the onset then transitioning to snow for areas like statesville. not really looking at qpf output now because of the GFS's low resolution. lets see what the euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah, this is a huge event for you down to Winston and Greensboro. Just talking to somebody that knows alot more than me, he said looks like about 15" here. bad thing it's day time event. BUT if the euro don't come south a bit i'm not going to get excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Can someone give a QPF totals for some major cities Hold on, I'll run a whole set. May take a while, go grab a burger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here are the desired maps. Snowfall from 108-114: Snowfall from 114-120: Snowfall from 120-126: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 500mb and Sfc tracks on the 00z UKMet look very similar to its morning run...looks just a touch north of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Just talking to somebody that knows alot more than me, he said looks like about 15" here. bad thing it's day time event. BUT if the euro don't come south a bit i'm not going to get excited! I want to be as excited as you but...geese...you know how bad it is going to be splitting hairs north/south for 5 straight days here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The clown maps seem thrown off by surface temperatures ... not sure I see that happening with that massive ULL to the southeast. Of course, I could be wrong. Anyways, I must temper expectations. It's really hard to look at something glorious like that and not get excited, though. I'm surprised no one mentioned that this run completely skips DCA-north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I want to be as excited as you but...geese...you know how bad it is going to be splitting hairs north/south for 5 straight days here? What do geese have to do with anything? Have you been seeing those in the backyard too? As long as they're flying south and not north, we're in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here are the desired maps. Snowfall from 108-114: Snowfall from 114-120: Snowfall from 120-126: And clown map total accum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here is a clown map through 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol, total snow through now til' 141: (ALL THESE MAPS ARE DIFFERENT FROM DIFF SOURCES, WTF): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 UKMET is heading to Bermuda, slp about the same as the GFS, hard to tell with the coarse Meteociel maps, ~1000mb off the Crystal Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Quite the warm-up being shown across the entire CONUS on the subsequent frames of the 00Z GFS. Those of you wishing for spring (not I!) may just get your wish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM takes GFS like track, bombs SLP over Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol, total snow through now til' 141: Why anyone is getting hung on snow maps is beyond me. For you sadly CAE never had much of chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Why anyone is getting hung on snow maps is beyond me. For you sadly CAE never had much of chance. WXBell has around an inch or two here for some reason and looks better for NC, pretty annoying how every snowfall map from other sites are different. Maybe Isohume can enlighten us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 WXBell has around an inch or two here for some reason and looks better for NC, pretty annoying how every snowfall map from other sites are different. Saw WXBell maps. They look closer to reality. I guess it could be possible you get snow on the very back side as it wraps up deeply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yes, this is breaking news for sure -- CMC had closed low over KY/TN line on 12z run at 120 hours. On 0z run at 108, low is now over extreme NORTH GEORGIA. GGEM takes GFS like track, bombs SLP over Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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