burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 is that a good possible trend or bad one? Looked bad to me...but it just looked weird overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 And it is NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 And it is the 84 hour NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here's a question: It seems the REAL trend today is not necessarily north/south, but speed. The thing the models have in common is showing a slower speed by the closed low. Sooooo... if this trend were to continue, what would it mean in terms of the overall evolution of the system? That is, should we be "rooting" for or against (or it's moot) a slower speed? I think you've made a great observation there bean....that didn't even cross my mind today. I would love to hear some responses to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The NAM has a 1092 mb HP over Greenland for multiple frames. Great model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think you've made a great observation there bean....that didn't even cross my mind today. I would love to hear some responses to this. A slower system *might* give blocking time more time to break down/move out allowing for a more northerly track? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 A slower system *might* give blocking time more time to break down/move out allowing for a more northerly track? Thoughts? Yes, it could. On the other hand, I would tend to relate faster to weaker, and slower to stronger. We want it slower, stronger, and farther south, obviously...but slower would lend itself to longer precip duration. Having the upper low go neutral and slightly negative tilt at the base of the trough would slow it down too (the March '09 storm did that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The NAM has a 1092 mb HP over Greenland for multiple frames. Great model. That is a feedback issue from the ice sheet, higher res models tend to be more pronounced in the strength of the high, but all models to some extent overdue things over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS appears to be a little further north with our system than previous runs...Anybody else agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yes, it could. On the other hand, I would tend to relate faster to weaker, and slower to stronger. We want it slower, stronger, and farther south, obviously...but slower would lend itself to longer precip duration. Having the upper low go neutral and slightly negative tilt at the base of the trough would slow it down too (the March '09 storm did that). I wonder how it would affect any phasing potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS appears to be a little further north with our system than previous runs...Anybody else agree? Are you referring to 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That is a feedback issue from the ice sheet, higher res models tend to be more pronounced in the strength of the high, but all models to some extent overdue things over Greenland. Interesting. That makes sense as I've seen the NAM do some bizarre stuff up there before. GFS appears to be a little further north with our system than previous runs...Anybody else agree? It looks identical to 18z as far as the ULL at hr 48, but our block looks a touch further south and the trough is deeper. I think this might come in further south and west, but we'll see. I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 0z GFS out to 48 hours -- main difference I see is the east coast trough (this weekend's trough ) is deeper. The 540 line on the 12z just touched the NC/VA border. On the 18z it clipped the very northern fringe of NC. On the 0z it's all the way down to CLT. Not sure what affect that will have, but it will surely impact the track in some way, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Are you referring to 0Z? Sorry, yep. It's moved south now at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Are you referring to 0Z? Nope,the trough is hanging back,this should go further S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Same thing at 57 hours -- our low is a bit slower, but the east coast looks markedly different -- much less "flat" than 18z or 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Same thing at 57 hours -- our low is a bit slower, but the east coast looks markedly different -- much less "flat" than 18z or 12z runs. Its gonns be S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks about the same as 12z through 57hrs, block maybe a hair stronger, vort is still in MT, poe again around Glacier National Park. More energy still feeding in from BC Dow through WA state than 12z. Another piece of energy in central CA heading east with an accompany 300mb jet max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 00z slower @75 it lines up well with the 18z @75...might be a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Through 66, subtle changes in the west (our low is a bit slower which makes it NW of 18z position) but still striking changes in the east. Hard to describe, but on the 18z, the main "stream" of vorticity ran from UP of Michigan ESE to southern NJ and then off the coast. On 0z run it goes from Lake Michigan on a much more southern route to the SE Virginia coast. In other words, the eastern trough is less flat. I'm not sure this is a good thing because it's trending toward the NAM in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Stronger at 75 -- trying to get a third contour. (GOD KNOWS it's frustrating to post on this board -- am I the only one that has to post 2 or 3 times before it actually goes up???????) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @87 still slower and maybe a hair SW of where 18z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Stronger at 75 -- trying to get a third contour. (GOD KNOWS it's frustrating to post on this board -- am I the only one that has to post 2 or 3 times before it actually goes up???????) I've been struggling with the same issue when I use IE or BB. Not with Chrome. I don't know why that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Slower at 84 than 18z (and much slower than 12z) -- only real difference I can see. Strength about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Track up to 78 looks maybe a TAD SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Through 66, subtle changes in the west (our low is a bit slower which makes it NW of 18z position) but still striking changes in the east. Hard to describe, but on the 18z, the main "stream" of vorticity ran from UP of Michigan ESE to southern NJ and then off the coast. On 0z run it goes from Lake Michigan on a much more southern route to the SE Virginia coast. In other words, the eastern trough is less flat. I'm not sure this is a good thing because it's trending toward the NAM in this regard. Not going to happen,its W and S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Just basing this off 84hrs and the period before, this run should be south of 12z, probably TN to NC,maybe SC with the vort track, 850 is likely going to come in just north of that. Block is stronger through the lakes, heights ahead of it are a little higher allowing it to dig further, and our 50-50 slightly stronger and sitting just south of Nova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @99 it's ha hair north...probably due to that energy over the NE scooting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At 90 hours, definitely slower -- might also be a bit north of the track, even if you extrapolate back to the NW. Not sure though. it is stronger, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @102 it's a two contour closed low heading right over TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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