NavarreDon Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Guys, relax & take a deep breath......we all have our concerns & we are all amped up as most of us have had several crappy winters. With this being a last chance (for most) at a decent storm we get on edge a little bit. There are bound to be many changes ahead. Probably some good and bad. One thing we can agree on is that their is a lot of passion weather wise from the posters in the SE forum. As of right know we have ingredients for something next week. What we know is that this is a tricky system with a lot of variables. There is going to be winners & losers as is the case with any winter system in our region. As the saying goes....."it is what it is". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Looks to me like primarily a rain event with a cold air chase and perhaps a parting burst of snow with the ULL/deform band at the end. This doesn't appear to be the blockbuster to save the season in the Triangle by any stretch. Another caveat is daylight timing based on this model run (we saw how that worked for some of us in the last event). It could be one of those quick ooh and ahh 1"-2" events for a lucky few . That of course is if this were the closest solution to verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 JB just posted his map for this storm. Central VA could get up to 2 feet of snow, eastern and western parts of VA 4-8 inches. He has the snow stopping basically at the va/nc line. He said regardless of how models will go back and forth, this is what he thinks will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 JB just posted his map for this storm. Central VA could get up to 2 feet of snow, eastern and western parts of VA 4-8 inches. He has the snow stopping basically at the va/nc line. He said regardless of how models will go back and forth, this is what he thinks will happen. I just don't see central VA getting 2 feet of snow and the NC mountains getting nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Larry, my friend, it's going to be tougher for you and me, because I see the advisory extends in Ala down to La Grange, but in Ga it stops about Rome. We are going to have to rely of snow flakes willing to flaunt authority and go where they are not advised, lol. I can only assume the HAARP snow degenerators along the Ala border will be on, from Rome down. How else will the flakes know to stop in Rome on the Ga side, and go on down to the La Grange area, but only west of the border? Either that or aliens are involved. I've been watching the History International channel lately, and it turns out space aliens are responsible for everything If Goofy has this right and you and I see flakes, it will have had it for two weeks, of course, it may have been a bit more of a system a while back, lol. T Travel a little ? north. Always puzzled by the rn/sn lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 JB has been wrong all winter. Why would he start being right now? Just sayin' JB just posted his map for this storm. Central VA could get up to 2 feet of snow, eastern and western parts of VA 4-8 inches. He has the snow stopping basically at the va/nc line. He said regardless of how models will go back and forth, this is what he thinks will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How much IMBY????? Nothing but a cold rain for everybody. Snow is stupid anyways. It does nothing but melts and cause traffic/economic chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Travel a little ? north. Always puzzled by the rn/sn lines. Now there's an idea Road Trip to Rosie's, lol. Looks like if anybody sees anything over the next week in Ga. you're in as good a spot as can be I'm pulling for you too, starting tonight! Mole Storm for Rosie!!! At least a couple of inches. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Now there's an idea Road Trip to Rosie's, lol. Looks like if anybody sees anything over the next week in Ga. you're in as good a spot as can be I'm pulling for you too, starting tonight! Mole Storm for Rosie!!! At least a couple of inches. T Thanks! Sorry you have not had your sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is coming back to NC. No way it goes south to SC and GA yesterday and then to VA and midatlantic today without coming back down to somewhere in the middle. That middle is NC. I expect to get at least 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is coming back to NC. No way it goes south to SC and GA yesterday and then to VA and midatlantic today without coming back down to somewhere in the middle. That middle is NC. I expect to get at least 6 inches of snow. I hate to admit that I lol'd at this...so I won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For the flizzard tomorrow morning...here's the 4km NAM at 8AM. On the loop, you can see the weak Greenville meso-low spinning across northern SC - (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/18zNAM4kmreflectivity_SE.html)...could be rain or snow, but likely snow during any moderate or heavy-ish precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That looks great for mby! Temps may be a concern as its 48 and cloudy,so will be a slow fall through the night.I think most models showed this thing fizzling out after GA,so was very surprised to see this ! uote name="griteater" post="2167401" timestamp="1362183595"] For the flizzard tomorrow morning...here's the 4km NAM at 8AM. On the loop, you can see the weak Greenville meso-low spinning across northern SC - (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/18zNAM4kmreflectivity_SE.html)...could be rain or snow, but likely snow during any moderate or heavy-ish precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For the flizzard tomorrow morning...here's the 4km NAM at 8AM. On the loop, you can see the weak Greenville meso-low spinning across northern SC - (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/18zNAM4kmreflectivity_SE.html)...could be rain or snow, but likely snow during any moderate or heavy-ish precip These systems can overperform sometimes. Since this is a morning event people in your area sould be very interested. somebody could get an inch if a band can setup right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looking at the 18z GFS Ensemble Members for mid-next week, on EWall it looks like around 5 of the 12 members are a hit with a track similar to the operational run (op run being 1 of those 5)...rest of the members are a bit weaker and/or north. 18z mean for the upper low is stronger compared to 12z, and just a bit south of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 wintry system that will make a cross-country tour beginning this weekend has the potential to develop into a powerful, damaging and very disruptive storm along the East Coast next week. From Accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 wintry system that will make a cross-country tour beginning this weekend has the potential to develop into a powerful, damaging and very disruptive storm along the East Coast next week. From Accuweather As sombody said before, what do they mean by less impact (if it stays south). ---We would have more impact. Less for the MA and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 HPC ... " THE ECMWF SCENARIO SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLY MORE PHASING WITH BOTH PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH... AND THUS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER/STRONGER THAN THE GFS AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST BY DAY 5/WED. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER SEPARATION WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING CALIFORNIA AND THUS HAS LESS PHASING...AND IN FACT INSTEAD HELPS TO ACCELERATE THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE RESULT IS A FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION ALONG THE EAST COAST. MANY REASONS SUPPORT A MORE GFS-LIKE SOLUTION HOWEVER...INCLUDING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...STRONGER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...AND THAT SO MANY SMALL-SCALE INTERACTIONS NEED TO OCCUR FOR THE ECMWF TO VERIFY...LENDING ITSELF TO A LOW BUT NOT ZERO PROBABILITY OUTCOME. THEREFORE...THE MODEL CHOICE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS ALONG WITH THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH DAY 5...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A PREDOMINANT GEFS MEAN SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SWATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION...SOME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLY/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INFLUENCE AREAS FARTHER NORTH TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As sombody said before, what do they mean by less impact (if it stays south). ---We would have more impact. Less for the MA and NE. This is flyover country, man. We don't matter. If it doesn't hit the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast, it has very little impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As sombody said before, what do they mean by less impact (if it stays south). ---We would have more impact. Less for the MA and NE. I'm guessing they mean less impact for the MA and NE if it takes that track since that map is for the MA and NE. Accuweather seems to care about the MA and NE more than anything .. everyone else doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As sombody said before, what do they mean by less impact (if it stays south). ---We would have more impact. Less for the MA and NE. we don't count I guess. yes where they are saying less impact would in fact be more impact on nc if it stays on that southerly track ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It just doesn't seem like Atlanta will ever have a chance at snow...We haven't even seen flakes yet in many parts of the metro this winter. Most of the maps pretty much have the system skipping Atlanta metro once again. It's just so frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It just doesn't seem like Atlanta will ever have a chance at snow...We haven't even seen flakes yet in many parts of the metro this winter. Most of the maps pretty much have the system skipping Atlanta metro once again. It's just so frustrating. hoping for you and us this trends a little more south to include a lot more folks in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks to me like primarily a rain event with a cold air chase and perhaps a parting burst of snow with the ULL/deform band at the end. This doesn't appear to be the blockbuster to save the season in the Triangle by any stretch. Another caveat is daylight timing based on this model run (we saw how that worked for some of us in the last event). It could be one of those quick ooh and ahh 1"-2" events for a lucky few . That of course is if this were the closest solution to verification. This is basically my thinking as well. Possibly similar to the event last month where we in central NC got beautiful snowfall all day, but basically nothing stuck. Maybe though we luck out on the dynamics and get rates that allow accumulation this time. At-any-rate its certainly something to follow and see how it develops and I very much appreciate all the analysis here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I read the forecasters to basically be saying that if it trends north the phase is more likely to happen. If south, than just a scoot through weaker LP and ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For those interested, DT just posted a video on the storm. http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=KM5XzsolXYw&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DKM5XzsolXYw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GSP needs to be written up for this...lol. How in the h-bomb is overnight snow going to change back to rain when profiles would be getting colder as the storm progresses? I hope isohume didn't write this up...lol Lol, I didn't write it, but it may have something to do with this. Just a guess. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=thunder&w8=rain&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w15u=1&w16u=1&AheadHour=99&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=35.38431&textField2=-81.96384&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 00Z NAM appears a good bit north with the law around the Canadian border for the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 00Z NAM appears a good bit north with the law around the Canadian border for the same time. The NAM just looks crazy @84 has blown up that energy into a huge closed glob of a low. Looks nothing like any other model to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The NAM just looks crazy @84 has blown up that energy into a huge closed glob of a low. Looks nothing like any other model to my untrained eye. is that a good possible trend or bad one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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