March Pattern and Discussion

[Poimen]

overall a beautiful run from the 18Z GFS for North Carolina snow lovers. A couple tweaks here and there and we are on to something big. I suspect it's moving the storm OTS too soon. See you guys for the 0Z suite.

[Bevo]

Thanks bean and burger - good job as usual.

 

pack - I know you were there in spirit.

[beanskip]

I know we're not allowed to talk about BL on here until after the storm (when we complain about how we should have paid more attention to them before the storm), but for Shelby, the surface temp is a whopping 42.8 at 120 hours.

 

 

EDIT:

 

Date: 5 day AVN valid 18Z WED  6 MAR 13
Station: KEHO
Latitude:   35.26
Longitude: -81.60
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   113                                                                
SFC  981   270   6.1   2.3  76  3.9   4.4 337  16 280.8 281.6 278.4 293.6  4.59
  2  950   531   2.9  -1.4  73  4.3   1.1 340  24 280.1 280.7 276.7 290.2  3.62
  3  900   965  -1.2  -3.6  84  2.4  -2.1 343  28 280.3 280.8 276.3 289.4  3.25
  4  850  1421  -1.2  -8.6  57  7.4  -3.8   3  35 284.9 285.3 277.5 291.7  2.35
  5  800  1903  -2.9 -10.5  56  7.6  -5.5   8  38 288.1 288.5 278.8 294.4  2.15
  6  750  2412  -4.9 -12.8  54  7.8  -7.5   4  37 291.2 291.5 280.0 296.9  1.90
  7  700  2952  -6.9 -18.7  38 11.8 -10.2 357  39 294.8 295.1 280.8 298.7  1.25
  8  650  3527  -9.8 -25.4  27 15.6 -13.3 352  42 297.9 298.0 281.5 300.3  0.74
  9  600  4140 -13.7 -29.5  25 15.8 -16.7 344  44 300.2 300.3 282.2 302.1  0.55
10  550  4796 -17.7 -31.5  29 13.7 -20.1 330  41 303.1 303.1 283.3 304.7  0.50
11  500  5502 -22.9 -32.4  42  9.4 -24.4 319  36 305.1 305.2 284.1 306.8  0.51
12  450  6264 -29.2 -38.3  41  9.1 -30.2 322  34 306.6 306.6 284.4 307.7  0.31
13  400  7094 -35.1 -45.6  33 10.5 -35.8 337  39 309.4 309.4 285.3 310.0  0.16
14  350  8013 -41.2 -52.2  29 11.0 -41.7 344  48 313.2 313.2 286.6 313.5  0.09
15  300  9044 -47.9 -57.5  32  9.5 -48.2 340  57 317.8 317.8 288.1 318.0  0.05
16  250 10231 -52.5 -62.6  29 10.1 -52.7 327  56 328.0 328.0 291.2 328.1  0.03
17  200 11671 -51.6 -67.7  13 16.1 -52.0 303  59 351.1 351.1 296.9 351.2  0.02
18  150 13543 -51.0 -72.7   6 21.8 -51.5 283  55 382.3 382.3 302.6 382.3  0.01
19  100 16141 -58.0 -80.1   4 22.1 -58.4 275  54 415.6 415.6 307.2 415.7  0.01
TRP                                             0                             
WND                                             0                  

[beanskip]

And, in case you're wondering, 112 is a total rain sounding -- not even close.

[MillerA]

I know we're not allowed to talk about BL on here until after the storm (when we complain about how we should have paid more attention to them before the storm), but for Shelby, the surface temp is a whopping 42.8 at 120 hours.

 

 

EDIT:

 

Date: 5 day AVN valid 18Z WED  6 MAR 13

Station: KEHO

Latitude:   35.26

Longitude: -81.60

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  0 1000   113                                                                

SFC  981   270   6.1   2.3  76  3.9   4.4 337  16 280.8 281.6 278.4 293.6  4.59

  2  950   531   2.9  -1.4  73  4.3   1.1 340  24 280.1 280.7 276.7 290.2  3.62

  3  900   965  -1.2  -3.6  84  2.4  -2.1 343  28 280.3 280.8 276.3 289.4  3.25

  4  850  1421  -1.2  -8.6  57  7.4  -3.8   3  35 284.9 285.3 277.5 291.7  2.35

  5  800  1903  -2.9 -10.5  56  7.6  -5.5   8  38 288.1 288.5 278.8 294.4  2.15

  6  750  2412  -4.9 -12.8  54  7.8  -7.5   4  37 291.2 291.5 280.0 296.9  1.90

  7  700  2952  -6.9 -18.7  38 11.8 -10.2 357  39 294.8 295.1 280.8 298.7  1.25

  8  650  3527  -9.8 -25.4  27 15.6 -13.3 352  42 297.9 298.0 281.5 300.3  0.74

  9  600  4140 -13.7 -29.5  25 15.8 -16.7 344  44 300.2 300.3 282.2 302.1  0.55

10  550  4796 -17.7 -31.5  29 13.7 -20.1 330  41 303.1 303.1 283.3 304.7  0.50

11  500  5502 -22.9 -32.4  42  9.4 -24.4 319  36 305.1 305.2 284.1 306.8  0.51

12  450  6264 -29.2 -38.3  41  9.1 -30.2 322  34 306.6 306.6 284.4 307.7  0.31

13  400  7094 -35.1 -45.6  33 10.5 -35.8 337  39 309.4 309.4 285.3 310.0  0.16

14  350  8013 -41.2 -52.2  29 11.0 -41.7 344  48 313.2 313.2 286.6 313.5  0.09

15  300  9044 -47.9 -57.5  32  9.5 -48.2 340  57 317.8 317.8 288.1 318.0  0.05

16  250 10231 -52.5 -62.6  29 10.1 -52.7 327  56 328.0 328.0 291.2 328.1  0.03

17  200 11671 -51.6 -67.7  13 16.1 -52.0 303  59 351.1 351.1 296.9 351.2  0.02

18  150 13543 -51.0 -72.7   6 21.8 -51.5 283  55 382.3 382.3 302.6 382.3  0.01

19  100 16141 -58.0 -80.1   4 22.1 -58.4 275  54 415.6 415.6 307.2 415.7  0.01

TRP                                             0                             

WND                                             0                  

When does it come through? Wed, 12pm-6pm or later? 

[griteater]

overall a beautiful run from the 18Z GFS for North Carolina snow lovers. A couple tweaks here and there and we are on to something big. I suspect it's moving the storm OTS too soon. See you guys for the 0Z suite.

Agree, that was a heckuva run...upper low and vort max are strengthening as they swing through the base of the trough...just one run though and seemingly all other modeling is north right now.

[Bevo]

I know we're not allowed to talk about BL on here until after the storm (when we complain about how we should have paid more attention to them before the storm), but for Shelby, the surface temp is a whopping 42.8 at 120 hours.

 

You can talk about BL anytime you want.  In fact, you just reminded me that my surface temp on 2/16 was 41 degrees before the snow started. 

 

All I've said is that I (me personally) don't look at them until I feel confident that BL temps will have something to relate to - so if there's a legit threat 72 hours from onset, I will look at the relationship to temps at that point.

[GaWx]

18Z 3/1 Goofy clown sweet spot: 4-12" WNC mtns to very far NW SC to far NE TN mtns. Also small areas of 4-6" in E NC incl. Fayetteville and N of Charleston, SC.

 

1-4" Triangle, Triad, HKY, area in SC between COLA/CHS/FLO, far E TN, and far NE GA. Just under 1" Charlotte.

 

Under 1" not shown on Goofy clown

[rduwx]

I know we're not allowed to talk about BL on here until after the storm (when we complain about how we should have paid more attention to them before the storm), but for Shelby, the surface temp is a whopping 42.8 at 120 hours.

 

 

EDIT:

 

Date: 5 day AVN valid 18Z WED  6 MAR 13

Station: KEHO

Latitude:   35.26

Longitude: -81.60

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  0 1000   113                                                                

SFC  981   270   6.1   2.3  76  3.9   4.4 337  16 280.8 281.6 278.4 293.6  4.59

  2  950   531   2.9  -1.4  73  4.3   1.1 340  24 280.1 280.7 276.7 290.2  3.62

  3  900   965  -1.2  -3.6  84  2.4  -2.1 343  28 280.3 280.8 276.3 289.4  3.25

  4  850  1421  -1.2  -8.6  57  7.4  -3.8   3  35 284.9 285.3 277.5 291.7  2.35

  5  800  1903  -2.9 -10.5  56  7.6  -5.5   8  38 288.1 288.5 278.8 294.4  2.15

  6  750  2412  -4.9 -12.8  54  7.8  -7.5   4  37 291.2 291.5 280.0 296.9  1.90

  7  700  2952  -6.9 -18.7  38 11.8 -10.2 357  39 294.8 295.1 280.8 298.7  1.25

  8  650  3527  -9.8 -25.4  27 15.6 -13.3 352  42 297.9 298.0 281.5 300.3  0.74

  9  600  4140 -13.7 -29.5  25 15.8 -16.7 344  44 300.2 300.3 282.2 302.1  0.55

10  550  4796 -17.7 -31.5  29 13.7 -20.1 330  41 303.1 303.1 283.3 304.7  0.50

11  500  5502 -22.9 -32.4  42  9.4 -24.4 319  36 305.1 305.2 284.1 306.8  0.51

12  450  6264 -29.2 -38.3  41  9.1 -30.2 322  34 306.6 306.6 284.4 307.7  0.31

13  400  7094 -35.1 -45.6  33 10.5 -35.8 337  39 309.4 309.4 285.3 310.0  0.16

14  350  8013 -41.2 -52.2  29 11.0 -41.7 344  48 313.2 313.2 286.6 313.5  0.09

15  300  9044 -47.9 -57.5  32  9.5 -48.2 340  57 317.8 317.8 288.1 318.0  0.05

16  250 10231 -52.5 -62.6  29 10.1 -52.7 327  56 328.0 328.0 291.2 328.1  0.03

17  200 11671 -51.6 -67.7  13 16.1 -52.0 303  59 351.1 351.1 296.9 351.2  0.02

18  150 13543 -51.0 -72.7   6 21.8 -51.5 283  55 382.3 382.3 302.6 382.3  0.01

19  100 16141 -58.0 -80.1   4 22.1 -58.4 275  54 415.6 415.6 307.2 415.7  0.01

TRP                                             0                             

WND                                             0                  

Look at it on the bright side...Your wetbulb is 39.2 degrees....LOL!

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

  18z gfs track

[Tacoma]

well I guess things are trending south again?  one thread I read Va will do well then I read N.Ga, nw sc e.tenn and wnc will do really well or are us in wnc and others as well as va going to do well?  just wandering, kinda confusing or will this go on for a couple of days until the models get a good handle on everything?

[Tacoma]

  18z gfs track

andy is this good, bad, or if its bad is it a hiccup?

[MillerA]

pretty much covers it all..lol

 

 

WxSouth ‏@WxSouth

18z GFS shows predawn Wed def.band starts East TN,N GA and spreads heavy across Carolinas.Storm Out to Sea then wraps back close to Coast

[MillerA]

Hour 120 of 18zgfs

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

andy is this good, bad, or if its bad is it a hiccup?

 

it is the track we all want

 

the folks posting about boundary layer temps or sketchy thermal profiles may not be familiar with how these upward velocities lead to the dynamic cooling of a temperature column crashing with very heavy precip rates or they are purposefully trolling the board

 

OR they don't seem to understand that the GFS's large-scale resolution won't resolve the small-scale effects of a an  axis of snow on the northwestern side of this upper low... snow accum maps aren't even valid right now due to the small-scale processes of the deform axis

 

either way, you're wasting your time talking temps at this time given what is projected on the northwest side of the system

 

that is an absolute money track on the 18z and it one we need to continue in future runs

[NavarreDon]

well I guess things are trending south again?  one thread I read Va will do well then I read N.Ga, nw sc e.tenn and wnc will do really well or are us in wnc and others as well as va going to do well?  just wandering, kinda confusing or will this go on for a couple of days until the models get a good handle on everything?

 

[Tacoma]

it is the track we all want

 

all these folks posting about boundary layer temps or thermal profiles are either not familiar with how these upward velocities lead to the dynamic cooling of crashing a temperature column or they are purposefully trolling the board

 

either way, you're wasting your time talking temps

 

that is an absolute money track on the 18z

oh how I wish this trend would hold on.  we all deserve one good snowfall then spring can come on. 

[dsaur]

Here in Dunwoody (just north of ATL), I'll believe it if/when I see it. I've still yet to see a single flake or pellet this winter despite the several minor events nearby. These NW flow type of events quite often dry up so much that they have a lot of trouble getting all of the way down to here. So, I'm assuming I'll see nothing but I'm hopeful that is wrong and that I see a flurry or two. However, even if some flurries get here, they may come in when I'm sleeping.

Larry,  my friend, it's going to be tougher for you and me, because I see the advisory extends in Ala down to La Grange, but in Ga it stops about Rome.  We are going to have to rely of snow flakes willing to flaunt authority and go where they are not advised, lol.  I can only assume the HAARP snow degenerators along the Ala border will be on, from Rome down.  How else will the flakes  know to stop in Rome on the Ga side, and go on down to the La Grange area, but only west of the border? Either that or aliens are involved.  I've been watching the History International channel lately, and it turns out space aliens are responsible for everything    If Goofy has this right and you and I see flakes, it will have had it for two weeks, of course, it may have been a bit more of a system a while back, lol.  T

[WilkesboroDude]

Good for some but man...going to be tough holding this track for 6 straight days. Can we hold the boundary temp talk for another 3 days at least? 

[beanskip]

Might as well just call me out by name ....

I don't know nearly as much as you do about UVV's but I know enough to know that there is SOME point where even the heaviest precip isn''t going to overcome temperatures that are too warm.

 

I watched it rain TORRENTIALLY in January, but still not turn to snow because the velocities weren't strong enough -- and that closed low was no slouch. This is certainly a potent closed low, but not a monster (until it gets offshore). I think it's at least a fair thing to point out and consider in advance of the storm.

Finally, I've been on this board a long time and I don't troll. Period.

 

it is the track we all want

 

the folks posting about boundary layer temps or sketchy thermal profiles may not be familiar with how these upward velocities lead to the dynamic cooling of a temperature column crashing with very heavy precip rates or they are purposefully trolling the board

 

OR they don't seem to understand that the GFS's large-scale resolution won't resolve the small-scale effects of a an  axis of snow on the northwestern side of this upper low... snow accum maps aren't even valid right now due to the small-scale processes of the deform axis

 

either way, you're wasting your time talking temps at this time given what is projected on the northwest side of the system

 

that is an absolute money track on the 18z and it one we need to continue in future runs

[Tacoma]

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. RAINIS EXPECTED TUESDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LATEST FROM GSP.

[rduwx]

it is the track we all want

 

all these folks posting about boundary layer temps or sketchy thermal profiles are either not familiar with how these upward velocities lead to the dynamic cooling of crashing a temperature column or they are purposefully trolling the board

 

OR they don't seem to understand that the GFS's large-scale resolution won't resolve the small-scale effects of a an  axis of snow on the northwestern side of this upper low... snow accum maps aren't even valid right now due to the small-scale processes of the deform axis

 

either way, you're wasting your time talking temps at this time given what is projected on the northwest side of the system

 

that is an absolute money track on the 18z and it one we need to continue in future runs

I'm one of the guilty parties posting about BL issues and trust me, I'm not trolling the board. You're the professional and I don't claim to know as much about this as you do but I've seen storms in the past, even 500 lows, take perfect tracks for my area and still have BL issues. Maybe there is something about this ULL that is different than ones I've seen in the past. I know over the years many have said "dynamic cooling will take care of your BL issues," and I end up watching the rain...LOL! BTW, I hope this is not coming across the wrong way because I mean no disrespect here and enjoy your posts a lot. Like I said above, you're the pro and I trust what you're telling us.

[rduwx]

Might as well just call me out by name ....

I don't know nearly as much as you do about UVV's but I know enough to know that there is SOME point where even the heaviest precip isn''t going to overcome temperatures that are too warm.

 

I watched it rain TORRENTIALLY in January, but still not turn to snow because the velocities weren't strong enough -- and that closed low was no slouch. This is certainly a potent closed low, but not a monster (until it gets offshore). I think it's at least a fair thing to point out and consider in advance of the storm.

Finally, I've been on this board a long time and I don't troll. Period.

LOL...I see me and you are thinking it's us. We're the troublemakers!

[Stovepipe]

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. RAIN

IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO

WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LATEST FROM GSP.

Geez man, no need to yell.

[dsaur]

Well, and Larry, if you see snow tomorrow up in Dunwoody, you'll have beaten the GFS by several months, when I think about it.  You said Ga. would at least have a chance for snow in early March,  back in Dec.  So, I'm pulling for you!!!  T

[beanskip]

Here's a question: It seems the REAL trend today is not necessarily north/south, but speed. The thing the models have in common is showing a slower speed by the closed low.

 

 

Sooooo... if this trend were to continue, what would it mean in terms of the overall evolution of the system?

That is, should we be "rooting" for or against (or it's moot) a slower speed?

[franklin NCwx]

18z gfs track

what a weenie run!

[deltadog03]

How much IMBY?????

[WeatherNC]

While the 12z Euro did shift its slp placement and heaviest axis south compared to the 0z run, ~Elizabeth City and central VA respectively, the 850 track along or just north of the NC boarder it virtually the same.  12z is significantly deeper with the 850, and more of a classic cold core conveyer on the nw side.  I am starting to believe the idea of a temp stall off HAT or the VA Capes as the upper levels capture the surface and the system stacks.  A couple hundred miles to the NW of where that happens could pick up a foot in about 6 hrs if the euro's precip maps are to be believed. 

[WilkesboroDude]

This certainly has the potential to be a nice event for some. 

 

18z was full of downsloping potential though... perhaps from near High Point down to Shelby and the east side of Charlotte.