March Pattern and Discussion

[DCMetroWinston]

WxSouth says it looks like no matter what, Virginia and Northeast are gonna get rocked. Much of the rest if NC is also a candidate for significant snow.

[mackerel_sky]

Can't wait to see the DGEX

[DCMetroWinston]

WxSouth Robert says it looks like no matter what, Virginia and Northeast are gonna get rocked. Much of the rest if NC is also a candidate for significant snow.

[DCMetroWinston]

DT definitely is a MA dude, but he includes NC in his focus. He has been very proNC this season, often openly rooting for the state to get some.

[Juliapalooza]

Good post from Brad Panovich on his blog:  http://wxbrad.com/snow-chances-next-week/?fb_source=pubv1

 

 

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

edited quote:  what Bevo and FranklinNC said about the simple fact that we have an upper low and that is pretty much all we know at this time... no other details can be determined

 

fully agree

 

we are purely in waiting mode and will be in this mode until Monday before details can begin to be resolved

 

12z Euro was a bit of a swing and miss for most and that wasn't unexpected based on what this model has shown the last couple of days and how it has performed fairly poorly lately.  The following may make me sound like a snow-homer for SC towns (which I am not), but I would bet on the GFS having the inside track on this system.  Here's why: take a look where our system originates.  It comes inland from the maritime Pacific in a fast, progressive flow.  The GFS has been real good at identifying shortwaves coming along in a fast flow, which is exactly the flow we find ourselves in.

 

If you are a fan of the Euro (known for being solid in more of a split flow) that's cool.   If you would rather have a model lock in on a foot of snow for your backyard and hold it there for four days, then you might want to find another hobby.  Funny thing is, there's always going to be a Canadian weenie run or a SnoGaps crippler for NC at 7 days out sending the board into a tizzy which brings up unrealistic expectations until the day of the storm (for some posters on here).  That's fine and all, it's just funny.

 

I'll choose to enjoy the fact that we have an upper-low capable of delivering heavy snow for somebody on the northwestern fringe where 700mb RH meets upward velocities to produce locusts the size of Bevo ... mainly, I'm optimistic because this is the last chance we have for the winter and SC seems to have a good track record with these early March systems.  I will also hope for 850s of -3 to -6C in the cold-core because that (or colder) is the ticket.  So far, models are not showing that sort of thermal profile, but global models don't have the resolution to identify thermal profiles accurately yet which emphasizes the point that temperatures aren't worth dwelling on.

[Southern Track]

Haha, did everyone notice on both the GFS and Euro the ULL trekking across the southern tier late in the runs? They both have it. Had to mention it.

[SN_Lover]

Why so much emphasis on DT? It is clear he has always been a MA guy and he usually prefers the Euro. No surprises here. Lets get back to our area and as a few have said :

 

1. No real idea on a system that has yet to be sampled

2. Blocking is looking to be very nice.

3. Dynamic system potentially on the table. Some area stands to see decent snowfall.

4. GFS has been rather consistent with it's modeling with this system. 

5. Bullseye will shift, it ALWAYS does.

6. Please stop using the over used term "baby steps"

7. There will be some light snow over NC tomorrow!

 

Chuck

Number 5 is the most important in my opinion. i have yet to see one of those worthless snow maps verify. the system has potential. we have really good blocking right now. models will probably still struggle until the system comes ashore... 

[Brick Tamland]

Matthew East on facebook:

 

I see no real 'trends' in the modeling per se. To ...be a trend, you would need a consistent change over several consecutive model cycles. I don't think any model has demonstrated my definition of a trend. All I see is adjustments of the track with each model run as they try to resolve the complex vort shapes and interactions.

Bottom line is the pattern is chaotic, and I think you can forget having any confidence in the exact track and specifics of this system for a couple of days.

[Nraleigh]

He says in that thread..........4-8 for far sw VA. I have to wonder with that statement if he even knows where far SW VA is. Actually, his statement is usually that he is "just reading the maps", not making a forecast. With that said, I have to wonder if he really knows how to read a map too........lol.

I agree.  He says he is putting out "A Major Video this afternoon"

[franklin NCwx]

yep, fully agree

 

we are purely in waiting mode and will be in this mode until Monday before details can begin to be resolved

 

12z Euro was a bit of a swing and miss for most and that wasn't unexpected based on what this model has shown the last couple of days and how it has performed fairly poorly lately.  The following may make me sound like a snow-homer for SC towns (which I am not), but I would bet on the GFS having the inside track on this system.  Here's why: take a look where our system originates.  It comes inland from the maritime Pacific in a fast, progressive flow.  The GFS has been real good at identifying shortwaves coming along in a fast flow, which is exactly the flow we find ourselves in.

 

If you are a fan of the Euro (known for being solid in more of a split flow) that's cool.   If you would rather have a model lock in on a foot of snow for your backyard and hold it there for four days, then you might want to find another hobby.  Funny thing is, there's always going to be a Canadian weenie run or a SnoGaps crippler for NC at 7 days out sending the board into a tizzy which brings up unrealistic expectations until the day of the storm (for some posters on here).  That's fine and all, it's just funny.

 

I'll choose to enjoy the fact that we have an upper-low capable of delivering heavy snow for somebody on the northwestern fringe where 700mb RH meets upward velocities to produce locusts the size of Bevo ... mainly, I'm optimistic because this is the last chance we have for the winter and SC seems to have a good track record with these early March systems.  I will also hope for 850s of -3 to -6C in the cold-core because that (or colder) is the ticket.  So far, models are not showing that sort of thermal profile, but global models don't have the resolution to identify thermal profiles accurately yet which emphasizes the point that temperatures aren't worth dwelling on.

Good post. But you forgot about the JMA!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bevo]

I'll choose to enjoy the fact that we have an upper-low capable of delivering heavy snow for somebody on the northwestern fringe where 700mb RH meets upward velocities to produce locusts the size of Bevo ... mainly, I'm optimistic because this is the last chance we have for the winter and SC seems to have a good track record with these early March systems.  I will also hope for 850s of -3 to -6C in the cold-core because that (or colder) is the ticket.  So far, models are not showing that sort of thermal profile, but global models don't have the resolution to identify thermal profiles accurately yet which emphasizes the point that temperatures aren't worth dwelling on.

 

I think the main...wait - did you jus...did you just call me fat?

 

 

[SN_Lover]

Snow map will shift...it is 5+ days out. It could show a foot here days 4-6 out but would care less unless it showed it day 1-2 out. We had people here getting excited days 5-8 out. 

we should not even be looking at the snow maps. those are for entertainment purposes. 

[rduwx]

Good post. But you forgot about the JMA!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Love me some JMA! I think that's going to be the model I hug. With all the colors, .25 qpf makes it look like you're getting 1.25 qpf.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

On the topic of phasing...there IS shortwave phasing that occurs on the 06z GFS between hours 126 and 156. It's too late and too far north to do any good around here, but it's there. You can see the sfc low and 700mb low strengthen significantly during this time. Here's the loop of it: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html

 

 

good point... I do see phasing late, but not as the upper low comes across GA, SC and most of NC which is all that really matters in a situation that would choke-slam us with snow... I'm done with wanting 1-2"... my bar is set at a half-foot or more

 

some were mentioning a potential phase from a solution that the Euro showed two days ago with another great lakes vort sooner which was what I was referring to

[NGaWxNerd]

Good post. But you forgot about the JMA!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now that is a thing of beauty, I could see a flake or two if this came to fruition.

[beanskip]

JMA: Dr. Yes!

Now that is a thing of beauty, I could see a flake or two if this came to fruition.

[packfan98]

From Midlo in the MA forum:

 

 

"so far hr 114 ens mean is dead on with the op over wilmington nc. by 126 the mean is a hair east of the op which had  the low tucked up near the eastern shore"

[DCMetroWinston]

From Midlo:

 

ens mean precip"

RIC RDU EZF:   0.75"- 1"
dc bwi iad cho roa lyh: 0.50" - 0.75"
 

[tarheelwx]

From Midlo:

ens mean precip"

RIC RDU EZF: 0.75"- 1"

dc bwi iad cho roa lyh: 0.50" - 0.75"

any clues on the rest of nc?

Tw

[DCMetroWinston]

I am trying to eavesdrop from Midlo, so....

[burgertime]

I agree that it is the last hoo-rah, so I'm just going to place all bets on the GFS and NAM for next week - go out wild and crazy.  Truth be told, I've always said I don't weigh the Euro heavily unless it's in a Split Flow. 

 

I liked your original post though - I would love to know what a "Lady" Hoo-rah is.

 

I knew someone would catch. Almost left it so jburns could make a joke about it. 

[burgertime]

18z NAM looks slower compared to it's 12z run. Vort is also more stretched. Still looks north but you know it's the NAM and almost @60. 

[packfan98]

I knew someone would catch. Almost left it so jburns could make a joke about it. 

Oh I caught it.  I knew the FAT LADY'S LAST HOO-RAH was what you meant.

[Cold Rain]

EPS Control, stat. I'm guessing it'll be in line with the ENS mean and the OP.

[ncwinterwxman]

FROM RAH:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...THE FORECAST OF THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN CONSISTING OF A BLOCKINGHIGH OVER QUEBEC AND AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPERMIDWEST TO THE CAROLINA/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TUE-WED IS SIMILAR TO24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND WITHINCREASED TIMING SPREAD. THE COMPLEXITIES OF INTERACTION WITHADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...TRAPPED AT THE BASE OF THE HIGHLATITUDE BLOCKING...PRESENTS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY. NONETHELESS...ITSTILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACKNEARLY DUE EASTERLY...AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING...FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NC COAST. SO WHILEPROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OFTHE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...AND MIDDLE ATLANTICREMAINS HIGH -- INCLUDING A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THENORTHERN PERIPHERY -- IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHERE AND WHEN THIS MAYOCCUR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THELAST TWO GUIDANCE CYCLES...IT APPEARS THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATESTTO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...WITH A SHORTER-LIVED CHANGEOVER ON THETAIL END AT OUR LATITUDE. FLUCTUATIONS IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS APTTO REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE OWING TO THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE FLOWPATTERN OUTLINED ABOVE...SO THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS WILLREMAIN RELATIVELY NON-SPECIFIC WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPEUNTIL THIS UNCERTAINTY IS RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. REGARDLESS...IMPROVED CONDITIONS IN HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OFTHE WEEK.

[beanskip]

One thing I'm noticing on the 18z NAM is the the ridge and trough axis seem to be shifted a bit west, fwiw.

 

EDIT: That could just be a matter of speed, though.

 

The main difference between the GFS and the NAM appears to be the evolution of the trough that is developing this weekend.

 

The GFS really flattens that out by Sunday night/Monday while NAM has a much sharper orientation.

[Nraleigh]

FROM RAH:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...THE FORECAST OF THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN CONSISTING OF A BLOCKINGHIGH OVER QUEBEC AND AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPERMIDWEST TO THE CAROLINA/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TUE-WED IS SIMILAR TO24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND WITHINCREASED TIMING SPREAD. THE COMPLEXITIES OF INTERACTION WITHADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...TRAPPED AT THE BASE OF THE HIGHLATITUDE BLOCKING...PRESENTS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY. NONETHELESS...ITSTILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACKNEARLY DUE EASTERLY...AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING...FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NC COAST. SO WHILEPROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OFTHE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...AND MIDDLE ATLANTICREMAINS HIGH -- INCLUDING A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THENORTHERN PERIPHERY -- IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHERE AND WHEN THIS MAYOCCUR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THELAST TWO GUIDANCE CYCLES...IT APPEARS THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATESTTO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...WITH A SHORTER-LIVED CHANGEOVER ON THETAIL END AT OUR LATITUDE. FLUCTUATIONS IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS APTTO REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE OWING TO THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE FLOWPATTERN OUTLINED ABOVE...SO THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS WILLREMAIN RELATIVELY NON-SPECIFIC WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPEUNTIL THIS UNCERTAINTY IS RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. REGARDLESS...IMPROVED CONDITIONS IN HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OFTHE WEEK.

To me this is not good, it confirms what Robert seems to be saying, it is moving north.

[audioguy3107]

Pretty cool update from FFC, guess maybe those of us especially north of Atlanta may see a little fun this evening into tomorrow.

 

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NORTH GEORGIA FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO 7 PM SATURDAY... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST UPPER ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. MODELS AGREE THIS DEEPENING PROCESS WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE BASE... AND DRIVING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD... SUPPLYING AMPLE LIFT/FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED DEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMBINE TO BRING A THREAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTH GA... MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEGINNING BY MID-LATE EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH GA AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 5-7 AM SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AREAS SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM BUFR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST ANY INITIAL LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 10PM TO MIDNIGHT... AND POSSIBLY BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AS THE SNOW SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD ATLANTA THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY.

[burgertime]

Well the NAM is taking our low and making it stronger up north atleast @69. It now has it as a 2 contour closed low.