March Pattern and Discussion

[Southern Track]

If we could only get that low to dig west of us. I guess it can't happen due to its origin.

[rduwx]

Like everyone else I'm going to have to call BS on this run. The end result might be right, who knows, but I don't see it playing out like the 12z gfs showed.

[SnowNiner]

@177 it has put down .25 on most of NC which would mainly be snow. .50 just west of CLT along the border of NC/SC. 

 

 

Ok, cool! Game on again....goes back into the road (model runs).  If there is such a variation in each model run I wonder if there is some actual credence to the models not understanding the effects the block is making in the retro flow?  Maybe it's not going to be until the block gets established before we actually know what's going to happen.  I think it's fair to say though that this weekend is not going to happen.  After that who knows...

[burgertime]

There is no way a ULL is going to swing southeast from the northwest the way the GFS is showing and produce a big snowstorm around here. That's just stoopid weird.

 

I don't know man that is always the bizarre nature of an ULL could go anywhere but yes I agree this probably has like .01% of verifying.

[MotoWeatherman]

There is no way a ULL is going to swing southeast from the northwest the way the GFS is showing and produce a big snowstorm around here. That's just stoopid weird.

 

yeah nuts.  I don't think I've ever seen a surface (non clipper) low track from MN straight down to the SC/NC coast.

 

All winter long we honk about wanting blocking.  Now that we have it it's going to ruin our chance this weekend at what could have been a decent storm.

[Cold Rain]

Queue the "we have to get this big trough out of the way before the models will accurately resolve the March 6/7 potential" post.

[Bevo]

The low is so far north but then hits the blocking and literally nose dives south.  I don't what the heck to think on this storm, except to watch more models :-)

 

At this point, and considering the propensities of this and last winter - there's two ways we can look at this:

 

(1) Either the fast PAC is still preventing model guidance from gleaning clear solutions and the blocking is not as strong as we thought it might be.  This would lend credence to why these lows are seemingly turning where they logically shouldn't be.  The resulting instance of models "backing off" ensues.

 

*or*

 

(2) If the blocking IS as stout as we thought it might be, and we know that logically the energy cannot travel that far north, then we are left with the presumption that model guidance is struggling with such strong features and so much energy in the flow - therefore unable to properly place the pieces of energy in order.

 

In either case, what we still end up with is a riddle.  Knowing that, I would tend to gravitate toward the one option that has concretely been the case for two straight winters - #1.

[burrel2]

Like 13 of the last 14 GFS runs have shown a greater than .25 qpf max in the upstate this weekend. I'm starting to think a localized area might luck out from this.  I think it has to do with the lee side trough and the steep lapse rates with the 500mb low overhead. It'll be interesting to see how things play out. Maybe it'll be a scattered thunder snow shower type setup Saturday afternoon??

[Brick Tamland]

yeah nuts.  I don't think I've ever seen a surface (non clipper) low track from MN straight down to the SC/NC coast.

 

All winter long we honk about wanting blocking.  Now that we have it it's going to ruin our chance this weekend at what could have been a decent storm.

 

If it's not one thing it's another. It seems it doesn't matter anymore how great the pattern is. There always seems to be something to mess it up and not produce anything.

[Cold Rain]

yeah nuts. I don't think I've ever seen a surface (non clipper) low track from MN straight down to the SC/NC coast.

All winter long we honk about wanting blocking. Now that we have it it's going to ruin our chance this weekend at what could have been a decent storm.

I think if we could get blocking with a true split flow, we'd do a whole lot better. This barrage of shortwaves carving out a trough at just the right depth at just the right location to produce a storm just in the nick of time but not too far west--that business is just not going to work out for us most of the time.

[MotoWeatherman]

I think if we could get blocking with a true split flow, we'd do a whole lot better. This barrage of shortwaves carving out a trough at just the right depth at just the right location to produce a storm just in the nick of time but not too far west--that business is just not going to work out for us most of the time.

 

Bingo. 

[MotoWeatherman]

Like 13 of the last 14 GFS runs have shown a greater than .25 qpf max in the upstate this weekend. I'm starting to think a localized area might luck out from this.  I think it has to do with the lee side trough and the steep lapse rates with the 500mb low overhead. It'll be interesting to see how things play out. Maybe it'll be a scattered thunder snow shower type setup Saturday afternoon??

 

I would agree as that QPF max has consistently been showing up there for many runs now.

 

Meanwhile IMBY if I just saw these soundings and didn't pay any attention to the maps I would be jacked about Saturday.

12z Sat for north GA area.

Date: 3 day AVN valid 12Z SAT  2 MAR 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude:   34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   107                                                                 SFC  955   480   0.2  -1.0  91  1.2  -0.3 303   4 277.0 277.6 275.2 287.2  3.72  2  950   521   0.5  -1.2  88  1.7  -0.2 308   5 277.7 278.3 275.5 287.8  3.68  3  900   953  -2.4  -3.6  91  1.2  -2.9 332   7 279.1 279.6 275.7 288.1  3.25  4  850  1404  -5.3  -6.3  93  0.9  -5.7 339   4 280.6 281.0 275.9 288.5  2.81  5  800  1877  -8.3  -8.7  97  0.4  -8.4 284   3 282.3 282.7 276.3 289.4  2.48  6  750  2376 -11.3 -11.4  99  0.1 -11.3 274   5 284.3 284.6 276.9 290.5  2.12  7  700  2902 -13.8 -13.9  99  0.2 -13.8 264   7 287.3 287.6 278.0 292.8  1.86  8  650  3462 -16.9 -17.0 100  0.0 -17.0 259  13 289.8 290.1 278.9 294.5  1.55  9  600  4059 -20.6 -20.8  98  0.2 -20.7 261  15 292.3 292.5 279.6 296.0  1.21 10  550  4697 -24.5 -26.7  82  2.1 -24.9 256  14 295.0 295.1 280.2 297.5  0.78 11  500  5384 -29.4 -34.2  63  4.7 -30.0 250  10 297.2 297.2 280.7 298.6  0.42

 

0z Sun...

 

Date: 3.5 day AVN valid 0Z SUN  3 MAR 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude:   34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000    98                                                                 SFC  954   480   1.4  -0.2  89  1.7   0.7 302   7 278.3 279.0 276.2 289.1  3.93  2  950   514   2.2  -0.5  82  2.8   1.1 302  10 279.5 280.1 276.7 290.2  3.87  3  900   949  -0.8  -2.7  87  2.0  -1.6 325  15 280.7 281.3 276.9 290.5  3.47  4  850  1402  -4.6  -5.9  91  1.3  -5.1 341  15 281.3 281.8 276.4 289.5  2.89  5  800  1876  -8.0  -9.3  90  1.3  -8.4 344  13 282.6 283.0 276.4 289.4  2.36  6  750  2374 -11.4 -12.7  90  1.3 -11.8 341  10 284.2 284.5 276.6 289.8  1.92  7  700  2900 -15.0 -15.6  95  0.6 -15.2 341   6 285.9 286.1 277.0 290.7  1.62  8  650  3456 -18.1 -18.7  95  0.6 -18.3 330   5 288.5 288.7 277.9 292.5  1.34  9  600  4052 -20.4 -21.8  89  1.4 -20.7 318   8 292.5 292.7 279.6 296.0  1.12 10  550  4692 -23.9 -25.2  89  1.3 -24.1 316  10 295.8 295.9 280.7 298.6  0.90 11  500  5381 -28.3 -29.9  86  1.6 -28.5 309  12 298.6 298.7 281.6 300.7  0.64 12  450  6128 -34.2 -36.4  80  2.2 -34.4 305  15 300.3 300.4 282.0 301.6  0.38 13  400  6940 -41.2 -43.1  82  1.9 -41.3 309  16 301.4 301.5 282.3 302.2  0.21

[franklin NCwx]

Moto you might squeeze out an inch or so over the weekend.

[rduwx]

I think if we could get blocking with a true split flow, we'd do a whole lot better. This barrage of shortwaves carving out a trough at just the right depth at just the right location to produce a storm just in the nick of time but not too far west--that business is just not going to work out for us most of the time.

Yeah, it sure would be nice to see a wave enter around Baja and take the southern jet across and tapping into some gulf moisture along the way. One can dream!

[Brick Tamland]

Could this all just be a situation where there is so much going on the models just aren't handling all the dynamics well? They seem to be allover the place.

[MotoWeatherman]

Moto you might squeeze out an inch or so over the weekend.

 

Yep...if I get anything that I can measure I'll be happy.  That would make 3 measurable this season.  The difficulty looks like its going to fall during the day which will make it difficult to accumulate unless its heavier than expected.

[MotoWeatherman]

Could this all just be a situation where there is so much going on the models just aren't handling all the dynamics well? They seem to be allover the place.

 

Truthfully since when do the models handle any winter pattern well and not jump all over the place.  That is the norm most of the time.

[Cold Rain]

Could this all just be a situation where there is so much going on the models just aren't handling all the dynamics well? They seem to be allover the place.

They seem to be handling the snowstorm-killing NE Vortex well enough.

[beanskip]

Canadian takes a much more conventional path with next week's low -- due east and well to our north.

 

By the way, even given its wackiness, I'm not sure I agree that the GFS is a snow-maker for NC next week -- looks like most of the precip falls after 850s crash.

[packbacker]

By day 5 on the Euro the blocking is farther east, this should translate to a more northern solution.  This was suppose to be a favorable pattern for the south?

[franklin NCwx]

By day 5 on the Euro the blocking is farther east, this should translate to a more northern solution. This was suppose to be a favorable pattern for the south?

the energy at 96 is coming ashore in Seattle. That will never workout for us.

[Brick Tamland]

By day 5 on the Euro the blocking is farther east, this should translate to a more northern solution.  This was suppose to be a favorable pattern for the south?

 

Yeah, I am starting to wonder why this was supposed to be such a great pattern and was getting all the hype.

[FallsLake]

Canadian takes a much more conventional path with next week's low -- due east and well to our north.

 

By the way, even given its wackiness, I'm not sure I agree that the GFS is a snow-maker for NC next week -- looks like most of the precip falls after 850s crash.

Looking at only 850s western and northern NC would be ok but the model is showing very light precip over a longer duration. This would hurt surface temps and/or cause a situation like we had last time where it snowed for 8 hours with very little accumulation. **I think we are getting into that time of year where we'll need a very stong system with heaver precip rates to give most outside the mountain any real shot at accumilations.   

[packbacker]

the energy at 96 is coming ashore in Seattle. That will never workout for us.

 

The Euro will still be a good run for BWI and points NE but not for us SE folks.  I am trying to stay positive and look for what needs to change for this to work out for us and it's to many things.  Now I am watching the models hoping for a glimpse of warm weather and spring.  

 

You know this will be back to back terrible years for RDU, I just went through 4 terrible years from 2005-2008, seems like we better get used to this.  I know come next winter I will have a different mindset on what "normal" is.

[packbacker]

Well the Euro is trying to save the run at the end, it might show something wintery day 7 for northern/western NC.

[Brick Tamland]

The Euro will still be a good run for BWI and points NE but not for us SE folks.  I am trying to stay positive and look for what needs to change for this to work out for us and it's to many things.  Now I am watching the models hoping for a glimpse of warm weather and spring.  

 

You know this will be back to back terrible years for RDU, I just went through 4 terrible years from 2005-2008, seems like we better get used to this.  I know come next winter I will have a different mindset on what "normal" is.

 

It seems feast or famine is the new normal. One extreme or another.

[superjames1992]

Well the Euro is trying to save the run at the end, it might show something wintery day 7 for northern/western NC.

 

I am not that far out yet, but I fail to see how this can translate into anything but failure and disappointment downstream (unless the Euro tries some crazy stunt like the GFS).

 

[superjames1992]

Wait, the Euro has a 1006 mb low off of the SC coast at hr 168.  WTF?

 

EDIT: And a closed ULL south of Atlanta.

 

Miller B?

 

North and West of I-40/85 might actually do well this run ... though I am clueless about precip.

 

[dsaur]

Well, I'm still holding on to my .01 of precip for the Mole Storm.  While not overwhelming, there is a certain sense of continuity now after a number of runs.  I'm beginning to feel somewhat possessive of it.  I just hope it isn't all Mole Bollocks   I have faith in Bevo, and faith in my rolicking one hundredth!! T

[Brick Tamland]

It is ridiculous how much the models are all over the place.