GaWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12Z Doc misses the bulk of the SE with snow. However, its clown says that WNC/ETN mtns get up to ~5" and the northern tier of NC gets some. Superjames gets 1" and the Brickster gets 2". The eastern portion of the NC/VA border gets as much as ~7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Happy to see the north shift dropped....now the bulk of us would appreciate a continued slow southern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The Euro looks more inline with it's ensembles now. Still not as far south as the GFS. I have to say that overall that while it has shifted a little here or there. The GFS has been much more consistent with it's solution. I would bet the end result is a blend of the GFS and Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro definitely trends back south vs. 0z run. But not far enough (yet?) Euro does give light snow to RDU, if that shifted 50-100 miles south it would be a major snow for central NC. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Robert is saying VA gets hammered and ne NC. I get the impression this is evolving into a VA storm. https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12Z Doc misses the bulk of the SE with snow. However, its clown says that WNC/ETN mtns get up to ~5" and the northern tier of NC gets some. Superjames gets 1" and the Brickster gets 2". The eastern portion of the NC/VA border gets as much as ~7". The Euro looks more inline with it's ensembles now. Still not as far south as the GFS. I have to say that overall that while it has shifted a little here or there. The GFS has been much more consistent with it's solution. I would bet the end result is a blend of the GFS and Euro ensembles. That sounds about right. Elevation, and eastern NC seem to be in a better position right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 from http://preview.weather.gov/edd Whatever will happen tonight and tomorrow, as well as next week to some extent, will be in a very complex environment. I will try to keep up with these images during tomorrow's event and next week to see if there is anything specific that can be learned for future winter forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Here is a better look at the ukie. It appears to have the center of the upper low in the far NW corner of the upstate of South Carolina. Right over Oconee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just keep thinking the models were going more and more south yesterday, and then more and more north today. Where it ends up will be closer to the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 From DT facebook page, VA and north gets crushed, NC very little. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk?fref=ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 From DT facebook page, VA and north gets crushed, NC very little. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk?fref=ts Have to feed the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That heavier axis of snow on the Euro is going to eventually be between RDU and RIC, guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Have to feed the base. This tirade was a gem from him ealier today: BY THE WAY.. there were NUMEORUS posters ( weenies ) yesterday who were on here SCREAMING AT ME that the Euro was giving to the GFS and that I was going to be wrong and that would would be NO big east coast winter storm...I know NONE of you will come back on here and apologize but wow you guys look like MORONS today you see it is called METEOROLOGY Not MODELOLOGY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 DT Would be nice if this was over south central NC and stayed there lol but I know everyone wants snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Until that ULL comes ashore, I still don't think we'll really know how this will unfold. I would not be surprised if that feature trends stronger once it's better sampled. The block to the north has always been key in my mind with this. If that holds firm or is slightly stronger/farther south, then I believe more of us will be in the game. Either way, it's good that there's enough agreement that it's close enough to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Didn't the xmas 2010 look good for us out about 7 days out,then models lost and or shifted way north towards Ohio valley about 5 days out,only to go back to the southern track 2-3 days out? There is still a lot of time and uncertainty with this one.Trying to be optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That heavier axis of snow on the Euro is going to eventually be between RDU and RIC, guaranteed. TBH, the EURO snowfall map will probably be wrong. Come on, how many times does east central VA win out? It is usually south-west-central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 From DT facebook page, VA and north gets crushed, NC very little. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk?fref=ts He says in that thread..........4-8 for far sw VA. I have to wonder with that statement if he even knows where far SW VA is. Actually, his statement is usually that he is "just reading the maps", not making a forecast. With that said, I have to wonder if he really knows how to read a map too........lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 TBH, the EURO snowfall map will probably be wrong. Come on, how many times does east central VA win out? It is usually south-west-central VA. We usually do better if the low bombs out over Wilmington rather than Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 TBH, the EURO snowfall map will probably be wrong. Come on, how many times does east central VA win out? It is usually south-west-central VA. "Usually" might be the key word there, as this is a rather unusual pattern/storm track. Still anyone's guess but I really am not going to be surprised if the RIC to RDU corridor comes away the winner here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 DT is also grossly hugging the Euro on everything he does. The truth is, the only time I will pay super close attention to the Euro is in a SPLIT FLOW. GFS has been consistent for several runs, and doesn't deserve to be dumped at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Usually might be the key word there, as this is a rather unusual pattern/storm track. Still anyone's guess but I really am not going to be surprised if the RIC to RDU corridor comes away the winner here. I'm going Southern Pines to Elizabeth City. I think this comes back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That heavier axis of snow on the Euro is going to eventually be between RDU and RIC, guaranteed. TBH, the EURO snowfall map will probably be wrong. Come on, how many times does east central VA win out? It is usually south-west-central VA. That's because you don't understand how ULLs work. When a ULL rolls through you want to be on the northwest side of it. Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 DT is also grossly hugging the Euro on everything he does. The truth is, the only time I will pay super close attention to the Euro is in a SPLIT FLOW. GFS has been consistent for several runs, and doesn't deserve to be dumped at this point.Let's face it since this is likely the last hoo-rah we are hugging any model that gives snow to our back yards. Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It looks like it already came back a little bit south. Yesterday it was trending towards a GA and SC storm. Today it was more VA and mid-atlantic. I think it'll end up in the middle with NC and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 DT is also grossly hugging the Euro on everything he does. The truth is, the only time I will pay super close attention to the Euro is in a SPLIT FLOW. GFS has been consistent for several runs, and doesn't deserve to be dumped at this point.dt is the president of the hug the euro club. Has he mentioned the euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Let's face it since this is likely the last hoo-rah we are hugging any model that gives snow to our back yards. Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 I agree that it is the last hoo-rah, so I'm just going to place all bets on the GFS and NAM for next week - go out wild and crazy. Truth be told, I've always said I don't weigh the Euro heavily unless it's in a Split Flow. I liked your original post though - I would love to know what a "Lady" Hoo-rah is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Why so much emphasis on DT? It is clear he has always been a MA guy and he usually prefers the Euro. No surprises here. Lets get back to our area and as a few have said : 1. No real idea on a system that has yet to be sampled 2. Blocking is looking to be very nice. 3. Dynamic system potentially on the table. Some area stands to see decent snowfall. 4. GFS has been rather consistent with it's modeling with this system. 5. Bullseye will shift, it ALWAYS does. 6. Please stop using the over used term "baby steps" 7. There will be some light snow over NC tomorrow! Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 dt is the president of the hug the euro club. Has he mentioned the euro ensembles? I heard he hates chamber music, along with everyone who writes, performs or listens to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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