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March Pattern and Discussion


Bevo

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12Z Doc misses the bulk of the SE with snow. However, its clown says that WNC/ETN mtns get up to ~5" and the northern tier of NC gets some. Superjames gets 1" and the Brickster gets 2". The eastern portion of the NC/VA border gets as much as ~7".

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The Euro looks more inline with it's ensembles now. Still not as far south as the GFS. I have to say that overall that while it has shifted a little here or there. The GFS has been much more consistent with it's solution. I would bet the end result is a blend of the GFS and Euro ensembles.

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12Z Doc misses the bulk of the SE with snow. However, its clown says that WNC/ETN mtns get up to ~5" and the northern tier of NC gets some. Superjames gets 1" and the Brickster gets 2". The eastern portion of the NC/VA border gets as much as ~7".

 

 

The Euro looks more inline with it's ensembles now. Still not as far south as the GFS. I have to say that overall that while it has shifted a little here or there. The GFS has been much more consistent with it's solution. I would bet the end result is a blend of the GFS and Euro ensembles.

 

 

That sounds about right.  Elevation, and eastern NC seem to be in a better position right now. 

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Have to feed the base.

 

This tirade was a gem from him ealier today:

 

 

 

 

 

BY THE WAY.. there were NUMEORUS posters ( weenies ) yesterday who were on here SCREAMING AT ME that the Euro was giving to the GFS and that I was going to be wrong and that would would be NO big east coast winter storm...

I know NONE of you will come back on here and apologize but wow you guys look like MORONS today

you see it is called METEOROLOGY Not MODELOLOGY

 

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Until that ULL comes ashore, I still don't think we'll really know how this will unfold. I would not be surprised if that feature trends stronger once it's better sampled. The block to the north has always been key in my mind with this. If that holds firm or is slightly stronger/farther south, then I believe more of us will be in the game.

Either way, it's good that there's enough agreement that it's close enough to watch.

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From DT facebook page, VA and north gets crushed, NC very  little.

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk?fref=ts

He says in that thread..........4-8 for far sw VA. I have to wonder with that statement if he even knows where far SW VA is. Actually, his statement is usually that he is "just reading the maps", not making a forecast. With that said, I have to wonder if he really knows how to read a map too........lol.

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TBH, the EURO snowfall map will probably be wrong. Come on, how many times does east central VA win out? It is usually south-west-central VA.

 

We usually do better if the low bombs out over Wilmington rather than Hatteras.

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TBH, the EURO snowfall map will probably be wrong. Come on, how many times does east central VA win out? It is usually south-west-central VA.

 

"Usually" might be the key word there, as this is a rather unusual pattern/storm track. Still anyone's guess but I really am not going to be surprised if the RIC to RDU corridor comes away the winner here.

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DT is also grossly hugging the Euro on everything he does.  The truth is, the only time I will pay super close attention to the Euro is in a SPLIT FLOW.  GFS has been consistent for several runs, and doesn't deserve to be dumped at this point.

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Usually might be the key word there, as this is a rather unusual pattern/storm track. Still anyone's guess but I really am not going to be surprised if the RIC to RDU corridor comes away the winner here.

I'm going Southern Pines to Elizabeth City. I think this comes back south.

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That heavier axis of snow on the Euro is going to eventually be between RDU and RIC, guaranteed. :snowing:

 

TBH, the EURO snowfall map will probably be wrong. Come on, how many times does east central VA win out? It is usually south-west-central VA.

That's because you don't understand how ULLs work. When a ULL rolls through you want to be on the northwest side of it.

Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2

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DT is also grossly hugging the Euro on everything he does. The truth is, the only time I will pay super close attention to the Euro is in a SPLIT FLOW. GFS has been consistent for several runs, and doesn't deserve to be dumped at this point.

Let's face it since this is likely the last hoo-rah we are hugging any model that gives snow to our back yards.

Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2

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DT is also grossly hugging the Euro on everything he does. The truth is, the only time I will pay super close attention to the Euro is in a SPLIT FLOW. GFS has been consistent for several runs, and doesn't deserve to be dumped at this point.

dt is the president of the hug the euro club. Has he mentioned the euro ensembles?
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Let's face it since this is likely the last hoo-rah we are hugging any model that gives snow to our back yards.

Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2

 

I agree that it is the last hoo-rah, so I'm just going to place all bets on the GFS and NAM for next week - go out wild and crazy.  Truth be told, I've always said I don't weigh the Euro heavily unless it's in a Split Flow. 

 

I liked your original post though - I would love to know what a "Lady" Hoo-rah is.

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Why so much emphasis on DT? It is clear he has always been a MA guy and he usually prefers the Euro. No surprises here. Lets get back to our area and as a few have said :

 

1. No real idea on a system that has yet to be sampled

2. Blocking is looking to be very nice.

3. Dynamic system potentially on the table. Some area stands to see decent snowfall.

4. GFS has been rather consistent with it's modeling with this system. 

5. Bullseye will shift, it ALWAYS does.

6. Please stop using the over used term "baby steps"

7. There will be some light snow over NC tomorrow!

 

Chuck

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