March Pattern and Discussion

[MotoWeatherman]

Ukie might be slower. If you look at 105 on the GFS and hour 96 on the UKIE which you posted they are practically identical. 

I was referring to the end result track of the ULL.  It looked north of GFS track. 

 

UKIE takes the ULL over the NC/SC/GA intersection area while the GFS takes it over Augusta GA to Myrtle Beach.

 

I wasn't trying to compare a specific hr panel to the GFS. 

[burgertime]

I was referring to the end result track of the ULL.  It looked north of GFS track.  I wasn't trying to compare a specific hr panel to the GFS. 

 

Ah ok. You know us 's always looking for some silver lining. 

[packbacker]

Sure is!

 

And Ukie heads due east from there, simliar to the GEFS.  The GEFS doesn't gain any latitude, it just bombs right off Hatteras and slowly slides east.

[franklin NCwx]

CMC is very far south compared to previous runs!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[packbacker]

12z NAVGEM is perfect track, ULL just south of CLT than to Myrtle at roughly hour 120-126, the SLP bombs out just east of Myrtle and tracks very slowly to just north of ILM hugging the coast and stalls there and actually drifts back south.

[griteater]

Sure is!

And Ukie heads due east from there, simliar to the GEFS.  The GEFS doesn't gain any latitude, it just bombs right off Hatteras and slowly slides east.

 

Looks like the blocking over the NE / South of Nova Scotia is a bit stronger on the UKMet compared to the GFS, though the upper low track is similar into the SE...then UKMet slides it out east off the coast with the stronger blocking.

[Cold Rain]

12z NAVGEM is perfect track, ULL just south of CLT than to Myrtle at roughly hour 120-126, the SLP bombs out just east of Myrtle and tracks very slowly to just north of ILM hugging the coast and stalls there and actually drifts back south.

Hey bud, what's the link to those images?

[franklin NCwx]

Looks like the blocking over the NE / South of Nova Scotia is a bit stronger on the UKMet compared to the GFS, though the upper low track is similar into the SE...then UKMet slides it out east off the coast with the stronger blocking.

It looks to stay positive tilt the whole time as well. I have to say with the March 09 storm. I was in the game and it trended south of my location. This was from about 5 days out or so. I agree with your earlier post with the gfs matching up well with that storm. However, I don't think we had any blocking with that one did we?

[KChuck]

Truth.  Also if people read more, posted less, and waiting until models were finished running and read analysis before asking questions, it would make the PBP by people who know what they are doing so much less confusing.

+1 !!!

[packbacker]

Hey bud, what's the link to those images?

 

I am tracking off weatherbell but they are also here...

 

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All

[Cold Rain]

I am tracking off weatherbell but they are also here...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All

Thanks man. I'll add that to the map folder.

[Disc]

12z NAVGEM is perfect track, ULL just south of CLT than to Myrtle at roughly hour 120-126, the SLP bombs out just east of Myrtle and tracks very slowly to just north of ILM hugging the coast and stalls there and actually drifts back south.

 

QPF amounts are insane on the NAVGEM as well. 2"+ qpf in SE VA then SW into north central NC through 144 and it's still cranking off the coast.

[NCsandhills]

might be 5 days out but...new thread?  it's all we're talking about so bleh jw

[griteater]

It looks to stay positive tilt the whole time as well. I have to say with the March 09 storm. I was in the game and it trended south of my location. This was from about 5 days out or so. I agree with your earlier post with the gfs matching up well with that storm. However, I don't think we had any blocking with that one did we?

Looking at it on EWall, the '09 storm had a well timed trough that moved through S Canada / Great Lakes just ahead of the upper low, along with stronger western U.S. ridging behind the upper low - both acting to send it southeast.  This one has more traditional -NAO blocking out front, but the western ridging is not as strong compared to '09

[packbacker]

You can see on the GFS early on the blocking is still strong but it extends out further SW which I would thought it would cause the ULL to drop further SE but it actually keeps it further north, it seems. Euro was simliar, let's see if it hold, we will be able to see this early on in the run.

0z GFS

12z GFS...

[GaWx]

12Z Doctor hour 96 says it is going to very likely be a no for the bulk of the SE. Maybe only the WNC mountains get something of note.

[beanskip]

Wow -- the low is much weaker.

12Z Doctor hour 96 says it is going to very likely be a no for the bulk of the SE.

[MillerA]

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) tweeted at 1:15 PM on Fri, Mar 01, 2013:

Snow chances next week? | @wxbrad Blog http://t.co/qbhZyuLcw0

(https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/307554778450362369)

wxbrad latest blog post.

[franklin NCwx]

Hour 96.

 

 

 

 

 

[franklin NCwx]

Hour 120.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[packbacker]

I am actually much more encouraged by that Euro run, the blocking was very strong and thus it doesn't gain latitude, although that may change.  I think the issue is the Euro is much slower than the GFS, probably 8-12 hours slower as it really strengthens the ULL as it moving across the country.

[mackerel_sky]

Looks like we better enjoy tonights and Saturdays flizzard ,because it may be the last flakes till next year!

[packbacker]

Hour 120.

 

That is some serious blocking, if that holds, and it's been holding and actually getting stronger, we are still in the game.

[franklin NCwx]

I am actually much more encouraged by that Euro run, the blocking was very strong and thus it doesn't gain latitude, although that may change.  I think the issue is the Euro is much slower than the GFS, probably 8-12 hours slower as it really strengthens the ULL as it moving across the country.

I agree, I think the slower solution on the euro is a big factor. It did have a move south compared to last nights run.

[Brick Tamland]

I am actually much more encouraged by that Euro run, the blocking was very strong and thus it doesn't gain latitude, although that may change.  I think the issue is the Euro is much slower than the GFS, probably 8-12 hours slower as it really strengthens the ULL as it moving across the country.

 

Maybe combine the two and it won't be bad. I still think the models will be completely different by Sunday and show more of a NC and VA storm.

[beanskip]

Euro definitely trends back south vs. 0z run. But not far enough (yet?)

[packbacker]

Euro does give light snow to RDU, if that shifted 50-100 miles south it would be a major snow for central NC.

[packbacker]

I agree, I think the slower solution on the euro is a big factor. It did have a move south compared to last nights run.

 

The SLP just bombs right off the S-VA coast and than drops SE a smidge and than heads due east, ala the UK.  The UK is just 100 miles south which matches up with the GEFS.

[beanskip]

Anybody have access to the 108 hour map?  Would love to know how much "arc" there is to the various features between Day 4 and 5 -- surface low over extreme NW Alabama at Day 4 -- then off Hatteras at Day 5.

[Poimen]

It seems to me that the Piedmont of NC, especially northern sections, are still in the game here. Not giving up, not getting excited either. However, I think right now the models are only giving us a dim reflection of how this will actually turn out. Still plenty of room for this to improve for areas of the upper southeast, in my honest opinion.