packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is going to be an awesome run for the 85 corridor of NC and upstate SC. Agree, with that track, you guys are in a great spot, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 See what I mean? Burger lives in CLT, much better for run for them than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 @117 from just west of Shelby to CLT is getting crushed. Upstate looks pretty good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is going to be an awesome run for the 85 corridor of NC and upstate SC. True that bro. That would be a nice thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I-85 corridor of NC/SC gets close to 1.25 of QPF...probably .75 would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's a great run if the storm was tomorrow, not 5 days from now as our furthest south model just went north and it's to the limit for us, any further north we are rain. It won't. It will come back south more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The specific result isn't important (can't claim to ignore details when they are bad but seize on them when they are good). The important thing is the trend and the trend was clearly north on this run. Given that is the prevailing trend among all the models and that the GFS is still the furthest south, it seems logical to assume the GFS trend will continue. The clown maps will be pretty, but by early next week will be a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It won't. It will come back south more. Highly unlikely, once these storms go from south to north, they don't go back south. DT was correct, again. Good news is the snow starved MA will get pounded, NJ/DC/PHL all get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I-85 corridor of NC/SC gets close to 1.25 of QPF...probably .75 would be snow. What part of 85 in NC? Are we talking Durham to VA 85, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Really hard to tell if this is good or bad. Some folks seem like they are saying it's bad while others are saying it's good. Thanks for the play by play!! Beanskip and Burger have been hilarious on this PBP. Good versus evil!! J/K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The specific result isn't important (can't claim to ignore details when they are bad but seize on them when they are good). The important thing is the trend and the trend was clearly north on this run. Given that is the prevailing trend among all the models and that the GFS is still the furthest south, it seems logical to assume the GFS trend will continue. The clown maps will be pretty, but by early next week will be a distant memory. Agreed, we needed this run on Tuesday not Friday. We have seen this time and time again. It's funny to read the NE threads they are just sitting back, feet up, yawning knowing this storm is coming north. Must be a nice feeling. Oh well, it's just the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hey, were still in the game. Think positive.. Still 4 or 5 days away! Great PBP Guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 And someone on another board said it looked good for central NC. Really confused about this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Agreed, we needed this run on Tuesday not Friday. We have seen this time and time again. It's funny to read the NE threads they are just sitting back, feet up, yawning knowing this storm is coming north. Must be a nice feeling. Oh well, it's just the weather. Still think it comes back further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That's funny! Verbatim it does show a big thump for me and Burger, I just think the overall trend is more important. Thanks for the play by play!! Beanskip and Burger have been hilarious on this PBP. Good versus evil!! J/K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I-85 corridor of NC/SC gets close to 1.25 of QPF...probably .75 would be snow. burger at work what does the qpf look like back towards AVL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The specific result isn't important (can't claim to ignore details when they are bad but seize on them when they are good). The important thing is the trend and the trend was clearly north on this run. Given that is the prevailing trend among all the models and that the GFS is still the furthest south, it seems logical to assume the GFS trend will continue. The clown maps will be pretty, but by early next week will be a distant memory. No one is ignoring them. Much like they were not ignored two Saturdays ago. For one +6 before it rolls through is much better than say +12 or +15 at the SFC. 850's are not too bad either between +4 and +8 which is not a whole lot to overcome. Now will it keep going north? It's anyone's guess and with these ULL you never know. I'll wait for the Euro to come out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Today's GFS run sits and spins just east of the Delmarva where is yesterday it was NC/SC border. I don't think it's going to go to much north, as there is a strong but somewhat weaking block there. I still think NC/VA border will be in play and down I-85 south. Pretty much the track of the March 2009 storm but slightly more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 burger at work what does the qpf look like back towards AVL? It's not that great for us Don. But if this can go negative tilt a little sooner it would be a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Right. You know, we talk about a "north trend" as if it were arbitrary, but it's really a "climo trend." Given that the GFS has a cold bias, it just seems so obvious what's going to happen here. The closed low will end up moving through Kentucky-ish transfer over somewhere off the NC coast and then it will just be a matter of whether it phases and comes up the coast or not. Agreed, we needed this run on Tuesday not Friday. We have seen this time and time again. It's funny to read the NE threads they are just sitting back, feet up, yawning knowing this storm is coming north. Must be a nice feeling. Oh well, it's just the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 No one is ignoring them. Much like they were not ignored two Saturdays ago. For one +6 before it rolls through is much better than say +12 or +15 at the SFC. 850's are not too bad either between +4 and +8 which is not a whole lot to overcome. Now will it keep going north? It's anyone's guess and with these ULL you never know. I'll wait for the Euro to come out though. The only thing that matters is where this upper low tracks and when it goes negative tilt. Whoever is on the NW side of the upper low will get smacked with heavy wet cement for 4-6 hours. This is the only thing that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's not that great for us Don. But if this can go negative tilt a little sooner it would be a lot better. Franklin....what are you all expecting up there tomorrow? I see where GSP has you in the 1 - 2" area. I'm thinking about making the trip up to Cashiers or Highlands from Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hey, were still in the game. Think positive.. Still 4 or 5 days away! Great PBP Guys. here here, that's my thinking and yes we have had some good storms that were trending north come back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 CLT, RDU, GSO, INT, are not even close to snow, your not overcoming +6 on 850's, we need this to track alot further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just a quick FYI to help absorb some of the potential confusion during pbp: It can get confusing during these pbp strings when you have a few people posting about how it will crush one area and what temps are prior (I promise I'm not picking on you pack or bean - seriously, mad respect for you guys. You're very important here and your skills are valued) - and then others who are calling out what seem to be very different interpretations. The point is that some of what gets placed in the string carries an inherent perspective from whomever is making the call, and some of it is trying to look ahead of where the frame is at the moment. This can lead to a large spectrum of conclusions all stemming from the same model run and data. I just want to throw that out there to maybe help temper some of the initial misunderstandings that readers may encounter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's not that great for us Don. But if this can go negative tilt a little sooner it would be a lot better. Ugh!....Try to stay positive but the last thing I need is a needle threader in March after 2yrs of suckiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 ULL and still 4 days out? I am not ready to throw the towel in just yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just a quick FYI to help absorb some of the potential copnfusion during pbp: It can get confusing during these pbp strings when you have a few people posting about how it will crush one area and what temps are prior (I promise I'm not picking on you pack or bean - seriously, mad respect for you guys. You're very important here and your skills are valued) - and then others who are calling out what seem to be very different interpretations. The point is that some of what gets placed in the string carries an inherent perspective from whomever is making the call, and some of it is trying to look ahead of where the frame is at the moment. This can lead to a large spectrum of conclusions all stemming from the same model run and data. I just want to throw that out there to maybe help temper some of the initial misunderstandings that readers may encounter. Truth. Also if people read more, posted less, and waiting until models were finished running and read analysis before asking questions, it would make the PBP by people who know what they are doing so much less confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Fair point -- I always try to offer a comparision with prior runs (although I didn't do that with the 850 temp observation). I wasn't really even looking the precip maps, just wanted to know if the GFS was going to start trending north, which it did. Just a quick FYI to help absorb some of the potential copnfusion during pbp: It can get confusing during these pbp strings when you have a few people posting about how it will crush one area and what temps are prior (I promise I'm not picking on you pack or bean - seriously, mad respect for you guys. You're very important here and your skills are valued) - and then others who are calling out what seem to be very different interpretations. The point is that some of what gets placed in the string carries an inherent perspective from whomever is making the call, and some of it is trying to look ahead of where the frame is at the moment. This can lead to a large spectrum of conclusions all stemming from the same model run and data. I just want to throw that out there to maybe help temper some of the initial misunderstandings that readers may encounter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 CLT, RDU, GSO, INT, are not even close to snow, your not overcoming +6 on 850's, we need this to track alot further SE. Again totally pointless to look at SFC temps right now and the 850's crash as it's coming below us. You want to look at how strong that low is and it's placement. The same thing was said two Saturdays ago, granted temps where in a much better position but that was not a very strong piece of energy really and you saw how it dumped and crashed temps like crazy. Same with the ULL that didn't quite do it. It overcame very warm temps just not quite enough to make anything good happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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