burgertime Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 NAM @84 looks like the older Canadian runs...maybe it would take a huge dive south...alas it's the NAM @84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 On the topic of phasing...there IS shortwave phasing that occurs on the 06z GFS between hours 126 and 156. It's too late and too far north to do any good around here, but it's there. You can see the sfc low and 700mb low strengthen significantly during this time. Here's the loop of it: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 NAM @84 looks like the older Canadian runs...maybe it would take a huge dive south...alas it's the NAM @84. I was just about to mention that. Looks almost like a "spitting image" of the GEM from yesterday when it was the ONLY model showing our low into MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I agree with you - but I try to take my own advice and not buy into it (eventhough mby would benefit). There's just no solid way to call a ULL this far out.don't get me wrong I know its not the final solution. Infact I just had some time to look at the 0z gfs and compared to the 6z, the 0z is farther north and more positive tilt. Something to follow on the 12z as it comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I have a question. This is hour 60 from the nam. As I compare it to earlier runs, the energy coming on shore off the Central California coast is stronger. Would/could this have any effect on the ULL energy? They are pretty close to each other. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Nam also has a 1088 high in Greenland at this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 On the topic of phasing...there IS shortwave phasing that occurs on the 06z GFS between hours 126 and 156. It's too late and too far north to do any good around here, but it's there. You can see the sfc low and 700mb low strengthen significantly during this time. Here's the loop of it: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html grit - I had some sort of Jedi feeling you would offer some input. I think the point about phasing was more in regards to the "make or break" idea it has for snow to occur with this ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 NAM @84 looks like the older Canadian runs...maybe it would take a huge dive south...alas it's the NAM @84. But it's following the trend of the 0z CMC, 0z Euro and 0z UKIE of being further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not to mention climo -- closed lows over the Dakotas usually don't end up passing to our south. I give this one a 1 in 100 chance of panning out for areas south of I-40. But it's following the trend of the 0z CMC, 0z Euro and 0z UKIE of being further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 On the topic of phasing...there IS shortwave phasing that occurs on the 06z GFS between hours 126 and 156. It's too late and too far north to do any good around here, but it's there. You can see the sfc low and 700mb low strengthen significantly during this time. Here's the loop of it: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html And you can see what happened with the 0z Euro it's starts to "interact" with a piece of energy over the lakes alot quicker and thus it doesn't drop as far southeast. Below pic's are at 12z on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 you know I read a lot about the models showing this storm trending north but we're still to far out and the storm is not even on shore yet. I guess I'm wishcasting but I think we're still in the game with this coming further south. still just to much time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 you know I read a lot about the models showing this storm trending north but we're still to far out and the storm is not even on shore yet. I guess I'm wishcasting but I think we're still in the game with this coming further south. still just to much time. Well, it was trending south before it was trending north. I think it'll be somewhere in the middle, and NC is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, it was trending south before it was trending north. I think it'll be somewhere in the middle, and NC is in a good spot. totally agree, I really think its better this far out to be trending north, plenty of time for it to come back south, as you say somewhere in the middle and NC is in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, it was trending south before it was trending north. I think it'll be somewhere in the middle, and NC is in a good spot. Personally, if I had to pick a spot now I would want to be in Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the Christmas storm of 2010 was trending north and what the day before it came back south. still in the game being 4 days out. plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Personally, if I had to pick a spot now I would want to be in Va Alaska! Fixed that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Personally, if I had to pick a spot now I would want to be in Va. Pure guess, but I do think VA/NC border is a good spot, but I also think this will end up hitting the MA and maybe scrapping the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Fixed that for you. well since yesterday it was snowing in atlanta north and east still think we're so far out it trends back south just not maybe as far south as atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Someone tell me if I'm remembering this correctly. The massive north trends in previous years were for miller a type scenarios and not these bowling ball type of low that we are dissecting this time. The track of this storm is dependent on the strength of the block and any potential interaction with northern energy (phasing). A more northern track would be dependent on less blocking or later phasing of energy. Phasing is really hard to predict this far out, but based on the winter thus far, it would not surprise me to have less blocking. The model have overplayed this all winter. Feel free to chime in and add any thoughts or corrections to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 we have to remain optimistic, I believe Robert is still optimistic with the last blog he had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 An early observation on the GFS. It's bringing our energy out of the pacific further north than the 6z run did. It lines up pretty well with the 12z NAM. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Someone tell me if I'm remembering this correctly. The massive north trends in previous years were for miller a type scenarios and not these bowling ball type of low that we are dissecting this time. The track of this storm is dependent on the strength of the block and any potential interaction with northern energy (phasing). A more northern track would be dependent on less blocking or later phasing of energy. Phasing is really hard to predict this far out, but based on the winter thus far, it would not surprise me to have less blocking. The model have overplayed this all winter. Feel free to chime in and add any thoughts or corrections to this. That's the general idea. Although I think the blocking will have a larger role to play in this scenario. The phasing, as it were, is true in how you have defined it. Just to be clear though, when I referred to phasing earlier, it was in direct response to how it would bring cold air into the system. I am not questioning it's interaction with other energies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 An early observation on the GFS. It's bringing our energy out of the pacific further north than the 6z run did. It lines up pretty well with the 12z NAM. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess. Think its the same,just stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The blocking actually looks stronger and further SW which might actually not allow the energy to dive further south as the streams interact quicker, go figure, maybe the Euro was onto something at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 we have to remain optimistic, I believe Robert is still optimistic with the last blog he had. Yes, he seemed very bullish on it, saying what the model will show later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 On this run it's also slower compared to 6z. Still further north but it seems to be starting it's descent. The big factor will be the energy around the lakes area and if it interacts with our low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 North, north, north, north, north. Nothing trending our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 There is also another factor here. It seems each run the energy in the SW gets stronger. If it can maintain these could could link up and phase helping keep the energy further south but stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 6z run at 75 hours -- e Central Wyoming. 12z run at 69 hours -- back up over Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 North, north, north, north, north. Nothing trending our way. And before it kept going further south. It will come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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