March Pattern and Discussion

[calculus1]

Matthew East's video is great watching this morning.  Quite informative and he breaks down all the different modeling and scenarios.

 

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

[Pilotwx]

Also remember this. With ULL models will be all over the map. March 2009 and March 2010(?) are perfect examples of this. To me the bigger reason they are called "bowling ball" upper level lows is because they have a tendency to be gutters as much as strikes. I'm waiting until Monday to give up on this storm. The fact is, every "winter" type storm this winter all models have been badly inconsistent on in the medium range. It pains me to say it but the NAM seems to be on point with winter events at around the 50ish hour range. 

I can't remember the date but within the last 2 weeks the HPC said as much about the NAM and ranked them GFS then EURO. They didn't indicate the GFS was better by a mile, it had just done better overall it was not an endorsement of the GFS.

 

My own feelings on the Euro it had to have some missing data now way you jump over 500 miles in 1 run, maybe some steps toward an more norhtern system in the end, but no jump like this.

 

Let me ask this question if the GFS had of done the same thing would we be putting any faith in it being right( I am guilty as any on the board to asume the Euro is better than the GFS).

[DaculaWeather]

I like to read these to find out what blend of models they are looking at: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_model_diag_disco.php

[frazdaddy]

 

I can't remember the date but within the last 2 weeks the HPC said as much about the NAM and ranked them GFS then EURO. They didn't indicate the GFS was better by a mile, it had just done better overall it was not an endorsement of the GFS.

 

My own feelings on the Euro it had to have some missing data now way you jump over 500 miles in 1 run, maybe some steps toward an more norhtern system in the end, but no jump like this.

 

Let me ask this question if the GFS had of done the same thing would we be putting any faith in it being right( I am guilty as any on the board to asume the Euro is better than the GFS).

I had the same thoughts about missing data this am when it came out.

[MillerA]

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midatlantic-snowstorm-potentia/7088979

I guess we are in the reduced area. Lol

[burgertime]

I can't remember the date but within the last 2 weeks the HPC said as much about the NAM and ranked them GFS then EURO. They didn't indicate the GFS was better by a mile, it had just done better overall it was not an endorsement of the GFS.

 

My own feelings on the Euro it had to have some missing data now way you jump over 500 miles in 1 run, maybe some steps toward an more norhtern system in the end, but no jump like this.

 

Let me ask this question if the GFS had of done the same thing would we be putting any faith in it being right( I am guilty as any on the board to asume the Euro is better than the GFS).

 

I highly doubt the Euro was missing any data. Matthew East breaks it down extremely well as to why the 00z Euro had it's solution. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I highly doubt the Euro was missing any data. Matthew East breaks it down extremely well as to why the 00z Euro had it's solution. 

 

Burger, I know your probably prettty busy, but how did the control run of the Euro look?

[packbacker]

Burger, I know your probably prettty busy, but how did the control run of the Euro look?

Like the Op.

[Brick Tamland]

Models are all over the place right now. I see WxSouth is still honking the horn, though. I hope he is right. I think this is the time period models sometimes lose the storms, only to bring them back where they were a couple of days later.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Like the Op.

 

Appreciate it!

[Poimen]

Models are all over the place right now. I see WxSouth is still honking the horn, though. I hope he is right. I think this is the time period models sometimes lose the storms, only to bring them back where they were a couple of days later.

 

They have not "lost" the storm, they are just rearranging it's impact, but the storm is still there. And that is probably the best news of the morning. Honestly, I did not expect the Euro runs of the past coupe days to hold serve all the way through to the event, that's just not going to happen.

 

My guess is that ultimately the Mid-Atlantic will win this one, but perhaps the northern Piedmont of NC can cash in too. Just a guess at this point.

[Bevo]

Even though I'm not a fan of how the GFS has handled some Carolina snowstorms over the years, it is a real stretch the call the GFS inconsistent and also a stretch to call the Euro consistent.  There's no real denying that the GFS has been THE dominant forecast model in the progressive, short-wavelength flow (ruled more often than not by Pacific-maritime air masses) which we have seen TOO much of the last two winters.  I don't like dwelling on the past, but it's one of the only ways we archive and learn for the future so hear me out:  Last winter was a joke for the Euro as it advertised arctic outbreak after arctic outbreak only for the zonal flow of the GFS to win out and this winter the GFS has been superior once again as the Euro has tried to blow up fantasy storm after fantasy storm only to decay in the 3-5 day range and come back to a GFS-type, weaker solution.

 

Here's the thing:  As often as we pour over these model projections during the winter, no forecast model is ever consistent run-to-run with details (temps, energy placement and precip).  Also, the Euro only runs twice per day so I would be willing to bet more folks would be calling that model "goofy" if it ran 4 times per day.

 

What are we really expecting around here?  Consistency in the 4-8 day range, really?  It's not ever going to happen.  I do myself a favor by not looking at the DGEX, JPA, NOGAPS, Canadian and NAM outside of 48 hours.  Some folks like to look at as many models as possible. I've found it helps me to look at less and concentrate on important features in order to compare those features on past runs with what is shown on new runs.  In the end, it's important for me to know which ____ to leave out of my brain and what sort of data to include, especially the quality stuff like short-range SREF, RUC and 4KM NAM.  You might be surprised just how much this helps to limit confusion and lower my forecasting stress level.

 

^^^^Absolutely yes^^^^ I wonder how many have actually read this and considered what it means yet.  The King Euro thing is grossly skewed in terms of reality.

 

Also - this is why my first action item with any potential storm is to wait and see if it's even still there 72 hours out before trying to comprehend the track, BL temps, etc.

 

Euro is hilarious, looks a bit like the GGEM from a couple of days ago, ULL quite a bit farther north and larger. In other words, yet another solution- can I say it loud enough WE HAVE NO CLUE WHAT THIS WILL DO.

 

Agree - this is a potent ULL, not a cookie cutter fropa.

[Brick Tamland]

They have not "lost" the storm, they are just rearranging it's impact, but the storm is still there. And that is probably the best news of the morning. Honestly, I did not expect the Euro runs of the past coupe days to hold serve all the way through to the event, that's just not going to happen.

 

My guess is that ultimately the Mid-Atlantic will win this one, but perhaps the northern Piedmont of NC can cash in too. Just a guess at this point.

 

I guess lost might be the wrong word, but they are all over the place. I don't think it will go that far north. The models have been trending south and then all of a sudden goes way north. I don't buy that. I do think it will trend a little more north as we get closer to Tuesday from GA and SC to NC and VA.

[frazdaddy]

 

I highly doubt the Euro was missing any data. Matthew East breaks it down extremely well as to why the 00z Euro had it's solution. 

Great video. I stand corrected

[tazaroo]

He also said the Euro Ensembles were more to the south than the op.  We really need this one to work out.

[beanskip]

I think in our weenie heart of hearts, we all know how this movie is going to end. Yes, the GFS scores some coups, but when it is on the southern edge of the guidance envelope and even that southern track is probably not south enough for most of us, it rarely has a happy ending. Is it possible this still turns out well? Of course, but the odds appear very, very long.

[DixieBlizzard]

The odds have been long for the last two years at least. Like your sig says, keep betting the streak and you will be right almost all the time.

[Pilotwx]

Go WXRISK DT has a side by side o OP run vs Ens. Run  of  Euro

[Pilotwx]

 

Great video. I stand corrected

+1

[Shawn]

He also said the Euro Ensembles were more to the south than the op.  We really need this one to work out.

 

Because NC totally hasn't had any Winter Weather at all for the past two years..

 

 

I think in our weenie heart of hearts, we all know how this movie is going to end. Yes, the GFS scores some coups, but when it is on the southern edge of the guidance envelope and even that southern track is probably not south enough for most of us, it rarely has a happy ending. Is it possible this still turns out well? Of course, but the odds appear very, very long.

 

I believe this will end up being a Nothern NC/VA special when all is said and done.

 

I don't really care if the Euro's ensembles are North or South since they will change all the way up until two days out.  The funniest and best thing that happened today was that the Euro caved to the GFS back at 12|Z.  Just like it has all darn year long except for storm systems that caused people heart-ache.

 

It's March guys.  Face it, even if it does snow IMBY, I don't care too much.  It'll be gone within 4 hours of seeing daylight.  Good luck all, but I don't have much optimisim beyond Northern NC, VA, Northward.  2 meter temps are crap and we are all relying on a phase to even get it to come down as snow.

[RevDodd]

An excellent update by Matt, and one more caveat for us Snowhounds whimpering for every crystal crumb we can get. When a system that is still lurching forward from the Pacific can be pitched hundreds of miles one way or the other by a perceived change in structure that hasn't even evolved yet, there's waaaay too much uncertainty.

 

What we know is something snowy this way comes. And, that's enough to make the weekend exciting. If you have any chips left, toss 'em on the table and wait for the flop.

[Cold Rain]

I told you guys to enjoy yesterday while you could.

We really need that block to hold strong. My biggest fear for this thing tracking to the south is for the suppressive effects of what happens in NE Canada/NE US to lessen as we close in, allowing the system to gain just enough latitude to screw us.

Anyway, good points by Cashhomey, Matt East and others. The road to truth has many turns....

[SnowNiner]

I think in our weenie heart of hearts, we all know how this movie is going to end. Yes, the GFS scores some coups, but when it is on the southern edge of the guidance envelope and even that southern track is probably not south enough for most of us, it rarely has a happy ending. Is it possible this still turns out well? Of course, but the odds appear very, very long.

 

I agree with this.  Frankly I haven't even seen a clown map within the last two days (maybe I just missed them though) that showed the NC piedmont having a significant snowfall.  Most of the precip shown to fall was rain with a switchover to snow.  That was with a great track south.  Assuming the models correct north a bit at least ultimately, it's even worse.  And with Coldstraightcashmoney's ( ) insight on this has never even been about a phase, I don't know where the cold air is going to come from; especially in March.

 

What I will take away from this winter is that we need SOUTHERN stream systems.  Northern stream is trash.  Blocking and southern stream systems is our recipe for southern storms.  At least I have that!  I just need to learn how to read models to see if there's an active southern stream. 

[Bevo]

Because NC totally hasn't had any Winter Weather at all for the past two years..

 

 

 

I believe this will end up being a Nothern NC/VA special when all is said and done.

 

I don't really care if the Euro's ensembles are North or South since they will change all the way up until two days out.  The funniest and best thing that happened today was that the Euro caved to the GFS back at 12|Z.  Just like it has all darn year long except for storm systems that caused people heart-ache.

 

It's March guys.  Face it, even if it does snow IMBY, I don't care too much.  It'll be gone within 4 hours of seeing daylight.  Good luck all, but I don't have much optimisim beyond Northern NC, VA, Northward.  2 meter temps are crap and we are all relying on a phase to even get it to come down as snow.

 

Disagree with this one thing:  "phasing" is a misnomer in this case.  It's a stout ULL.  Phasing was never really a part of this.  There's some energy interaction, but to call it "phasing" is a stretch.  It doesn't need to "phase" in order to get the cold.  March has nothing to do with it either.  Not in this case. 

 

Everyone that reads my posts here knows - I do not hype potential winter weather.  The fact is, I'm usually the last one to bite.  I do not know how anyone can decisively prog one way or another at this point.  If someone called it today and it hits dead nuts next week, it would likely be more luck than anything.  Hell, I declared Widre's storm 2 weeks ago dead 2 days out and received more snow than most.  This is a different animal.

[Bevo]

I agree with this.  Frankly I haven't even seen a clown map within the last two days (maybe I just missed them though) that showed the NC piedmont having a significant snowfall.  Most of the precip shown to fall was rain with a switchover to snow.  That was with a great track south.  Assuming the models correct north a bit at least ultimately, it's even worse.  And with Coldstraightcashmoney's ( ) insight on this has never even been about a phase, I don't know where the cold air is going to come from; especially in March.

 

What I will take away from this winter is that we need SOUTHERN stream systems.  Northern stream is trash.  Blocking and southern stream systems is our recipe for southern storms.  At least I have that!  I just need to learn how to read models to see if there's an active southern stream. 

 

Again - it's a ULL.  Not really a weak one either.  That's typically how you get decent snows in March here.  Whether or not we get hit is a question no one can answer right now - that's the reality.

[burgertime]

I agree with this.  Frankly I haven't even seen a clown map within the last two days (maybe I just missed them though) that showed the NC piedmont having a significant snowfall.  Most of the precip shown to fall was rain with a switchover to snow.  That was with a great track south.  Assuming the models correct north a bit at least ultimately, it's even worse.  And with Coldstraightcashmoney's ( ) insight on this has never even been about a phase, I don't know where the cold air is going to come from; especially in March.

 

What I will take away from this winter is that we need SOUTHERN stream systems.  Northern stream is trash.  Blocking and southern stream systems is our recipe for southern storms.  At least I have that!  I just need to learn how to read models to see if there's an active southern stream. 

 

 

I don't know how many times this has to be explained. First we have blocking going on so we are already below normal on temps that is the first step in where cold air coming. Second this is an ULL. Even though the first ULL didn't quite work out for us you saw temps crash as it came in. The problem was in the upper atmosphere at 850 it couldn't overcome how warm it was. This time we have 850's much better so it's going to take much less to overcome this go round. So in short STOP WORRYING ABOUT TEMPS AND WORRY ABOUT THE ORIENTATION AND HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOW GOES. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW NOT THE TEMPS.

[Bevo]

I don't know how many times this has to be explained. First we have blocking going on so we are already below normal on temps that is the first step in where cold air coming. Second this is an ULL. Even though the first ULL didn't quite work out for us you saw temps crash as it came in. The problem was in the upper atmosphere at 850 it couldn't overcome how warm it was. This time we have 850's much better so it's going to take much less to overcome this go round. So in short STOP WORRYING ABOUT TEMPS AND WORRY ABOUT THE ORIENTATION AND HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOW GOES. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW NOT THE TEMPS.

 

To add to this^^^ It's March 1st.  That has no role in this scenario at all.  The first of March is no different than mid December in my opinion.  Statistically - in my lifetime - I've seen snow in March 300% more than I have in December.  You simply can't get sold on any one solution yet.  Even one that shows snow in your backyard.

[Cold Rain]

The ULL needs to be strong/strengthening too. There is finally a favorably located HP to help us. Still lots to be determined before worrying about temps. Let's get the synoptics locked and loaded first and then worry about ground temps, warm noses, precip rates, and sun angles.

[franklin NCwx]

To add to this^^^ It's March 1st.  That has no role in this scenario at all.  The first of March is no different than mid December in my opinion.  Statistically - in my lifetime - I've seen snow in March 300% more than I have in December.  You simply can't get sold on any one solution yet.  Even one that shows snow in your backyard.

This is a not a bad looking solution 5 days out for your area! Infact if this was a hair north and went negative tilt a little sooner it would be great for N GA, upstate of SC and everyone west of Burger in NC. Also the GFS matches the euro ensemble mean pretty well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bevo]

This is a not a bad looking solution 5 days out for your area! Infact if this was a hair north and went negative tilt a little sooner it would be great for N GA, upstate of SC and everyone west of Burger in NC. Also the GFS matches the euro ensemble mean pretty well.

 

I agree with you - but I try to take my own advice and not buy into it (eventhough mby would benefit).  There's just no solid way to call a ULL this far out.