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March Pattern and Discussion


Bevo

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Again - very similar to March 2009.  It seems like the energy even came ashore close to where this is progged to land.

 

Yep, there are some similarities for sure.  Also, I'm noticing that "phasing" is a loose and over-used term on the board

 

I have yet to see phasing be a part of this whole situation for next week.  There's some interaction shown on the Euro with energy over the great lakes, but that's northern stream energy interacting with northern stream energy.  The driver of our opportunity as many have pushed all in... is the upper low and no other energy.

 

This is purely a northern stream dominant upper level low which moves on a similar path as March of '09 (as it dives in from Montana like the ULL in of March '09 did), but in other ways... isn't exactly a March of '09 setup.

 

Many already know this, but an example of [ure phasing which gives many of us what we want is when northern energy or s/w dives into the base of a southern piece (ideally an ULL cruising through Texas) and what happens next is Canada decides to forklift the Pacific and smack some people in the face with white locusts.  I wish that were happening in this instance because it would be a situation where our upper low decided to chew on some deer antlers and turn into a monster, but that isn't the setup we're focusing on now.

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UK was definitely a big jog north from the 12z run -- I don't see how that's a winter weather track for most/all on this board. Canadian definitely came south, but still a long way to go. Looks like the window is narrowing and the NC/SC folks are on the southern end of the envelope. Wish I had lots of happy stories to tell from past situations like that ....

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 The 0Z GEFS mean is further north than the 18 Z, which was further north than the 12Z. Not a good trend with the GEFS. Can Doc save the night or are we all going to go to bed in deep depression? ;)

 

Probably the first...would be inclined to believe a consistent EURO for days over a inconsistent daily GFS that I don't consider a trend whatsoever. 

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Probably the first...would be inclined to believe a consistent EURO for days over a inconsistent daily GFS that I don't consider a trend whatsoever. 

 

Even though I'm not a fan of how the GFS has handled some Carolina snowstorms over the years, it is a real stretch the call the GFS inconsistent and also a stretch to call the Euro consistent.  There's no real denying that the GFS has been THE dominant forecast model in the progressive, short-wavelength flow (ruled more often than not by Pacific-maritime air masses) which we have seen TOO much of the last two winters.  I don't like dwelling on the past, but it's one of the only ways we archive and learn for the future so hear me out:  Last winter was a joke for the Euro as it advertised arctic outbreak after arctic outbreak only for the zonal flow of the GFS to win out and this winter the GFS has been superior once again as the Euro has tried to blow up fantasy storm after fantasy storm only to decay in the 3-5 day range and come back to a GFS-type, weaker solution.

 

Here's the thing:  As often as we pour over these model projections during the winter, no forecast model is ever consistent run-to-run with details (temps, energy placement and precip).  Also, the Euro only runs twice per day so I would be willing to bet more folks would be calling that model "goofy" if it ran 4 times per day.

 

What are we really expecting around here?  Consistency in the 4-8 day range, really?  It's not ever going to happen.  I do myself a favor by not looking at the DGEX, JPA, NOGAPS, Canadian and NAM outside of 48 hours.  Some folks like to look at as many models as possible. I've found it helps me to look at less and concentrate on important features in order to compare those features on past runs with what is shown on new runs.  In the end, it's important for me to know which ____ to leave out of my brain and what sort of data to include, especially the quality stuff like short-range SREF, RUC and 4KM NAM.  You might be surprised just how much this helps to limit confusion and lower my forecasting stress level.

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 The 0Z GEFS mean is further north than the 18 Z, which was further north than the 12Z. Not a good trend with the GEFS. Can Doc save the night or are we all going to go to bed in deep depression? ;)

I've still got a ULL going by south of me on the op.  I'll sleep well no matter what the naysayer says :)  But I will be interested in Sat.  .01 seems such a humble amount, lol.  T

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The Euro pounds NYC, etc.  Nothing like a 500-mile jump north between friends, right?  Nice consistency.

 

Everything still seems up in the air at this point.  It will be interesting to see what the Euro ensembles and control run showed in the morning.

 

lol good one. ... just going to take a deep breath (again) and see if this thing trends south 500 miles tomorrow lol ... after going thru the last day and a half of posts, from what i can tell, this can be a GA/SC storm, or a NOVA/DC storm ...  in 5 days hopefully NC will be the one that gets it ... if not then we always have the 2nd Wednesday in March  :weenie:

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I wouldn't call it weak... looks pretty good for an ULL, especially given the GFS propensity to dampen these systems out at this range

This new 0z run was much different with the evolution of the weekend system and thus changed the outlook for our system next week.

As we get closer, guidance seems to want to weaken the trof for this weekend. This weekend's event has some responsibility in laying out or carving an upstream path of cold for our mid-week system to make a move into.

Since the 0z backed off on the amount of cold that is laid down in advance of our system, 850s showed up warmer ahead of next Tuesday. We have to keep in mind that this is a potent ULL which will wrap some warm air ahead of it if given the chance, and 850s warmed a few degrees ahead of this thing on the 0z run.

I'm getting somewhat annoyed at the consistency of what seems to be a barrage trofs or ULLs which move over our heads at positive tilt only to turn neutral or negative in a position to do something as they move just past us... that needs to change in a hurry!

I wouldn't put too much stock in this 0z run though, but we don't need this trend to continue and I would be willing to bet the Euro is on to something with the interaction (not really phasing) with the great lakes energy which this 0z GFS runs also lacked

Don't worry too much about temps at this range, just focus on the fact that we have an upper-low capable of producing dynamic cooling under its core if it moves directly over your head or just to the south of your location

I agree, good post. I am tired of these troughs going negative tilt too late. It really gets on my nerves. Just once it would be great to see a trough and ridge axis to line up properly for us.
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Even though I'm not a fan of how the GFS has handled some Carolina snowstorms over the years, it is a real stretch the call the GFS inconsistent and also a stretch to call the Euro consistent.  There's no real denying that the GFS has been THE dominant forecast model in the progressive, short-wavelength flow (ruled more often than not by Pacific-maritime air masses) which we have seen TOO much of the last two winters.  I don't like dwelling on the past, but it's one of the only ways we archive and learn for the future so hear me out:  Last winter was a joke for the Euro as it advertised arctic outbreak after arctic outbreak only for the zonal flow of the GFS to win out and this winter the GFS has been superior once again as the Euro has tried to blow up fantasy storm after fantasy storm only to decay in the 3-5 day range and come back to a GFS-type, weaker solution.

 

Here's the thing:  As often as we pour over these model projections during the winter, no forecast model is ever consistent run-to-run with details (temps, energy placement and precip).  Also, the Euro only runs twice per day so I would be willing to bet more folks would be calling that model "goofy" if it ran 4 times per day.

 

What are we really expecting around here?  Consistency in the 4-8 day range, really?  It's not ever going to happen.  I do myself a favor by not looking at the DGEX, JPA, NOGAPS, Canadian and NAM outside of 48 hours.  Some folks like to look at as many models as possible. I've found it helps me to look at less and concentrate on important features in order to compare those features on past runs with what is shown on new runs.  In the end, it's important for me to know which ____ to leave out of my brain and what sort of data to include, especially the quality stuff like short-range SREF, RUC and 4KM NAM.  You might be surprised just how much this helps to limit confusion and lower my forecasting stress level.

 

 

Post of the year right here. Every person on this board should read this and let it sink in. You gotta love how people are abandoning ship as well with 4 days to go because of one run of models. 

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Also remember this. With ULL models will be all over the map. March 2009 and March 2010(?) are perfect examples of this. To me the bigger reason they are called "bowling ball" upper level lows is because they have a tendency to be gutters as much as strikes. I'm waiting until Monday to give up on this storm. The fact is, every "winter" type storm this winter all models have been badly inconsistent on in the medium range. It pains me to say it but the NAM seems to be on point with winter events at around the 50ish hour range. 

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Also remember this. With ULL models will be all over the map. March 2009 and March 2010(?) are perfect examples of this. To me the bigger reason they are called "bowling ball" upper level lows is because they have a tendency to be gutters as much as strikes. I'm waiting until Monday to give up on this storm. The fact is, every "winter" type storm this winter all models have been badly inconsistent on in the medium range. It pains me to say it but the NAM seems to be on point with winter events at around the 50ish hour range. 

Agree on both of your last two post. Also... if Robert is optimistic... I'm optimistic!  :snowing:

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Wow, crazy run of the Euro, the northern models are ticking south (UK/GGEM/NAVGEM) the south model is ticking north (GFS) and the Euro has given everyone from NC to ME a historic winter storm over the past 4 runs.  Just for fun, this is the lastest 6z NAVGEM, it again ticked south....

 

nvg10.prp.132.namer.gif

nvg10.prp.144.namer.gif

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1238 AM EST FRI MAR 01 2013

VALID 12Z MON MAR 04 2013 - 12Z FRI MAR 08 2013

A BLOCKING PATTERN AT HIGH LATITUDES WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF

ENERGETIC VORTICES TO SPIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA THIS

PERIOD ASTRIDE 40N. TWO PORTIONS OF THE NATION SHOULD RECEIVE THE

BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES: THE CENTRAL

PACIFIC COAST AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST. THE INTERPLAY

BETWEEN THE BLOCKED NORTHERN STREAM AND THE WESTERLIES ARE LEADING

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ON THE USUAL MERRY CHASE. STUCK WITH THE

RELIABLE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE,

WHICH HAPPENS TO AFFORD A MIDDLE GROUND FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW

AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 5 AND 6. COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF

THIS WAVE COULD SPELL THE LAST ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LOWER

ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WESTERN WAVE SHOULD

PULL ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL

THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE--A WELCOME REPLENISHMENT FOR THE

UPCOMING SUMMER DRYNESS.

CISCO

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