packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 don't worry, it'll screw us over and the storm'll go* north or south like it usually has this winter, lol It will somehow go OTS, miss us both and circle back and pound the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yep No hookup and it is a RN event, period, we need the two pieces to tango, circa TN and into central GA like the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Good track, decent qpf, just no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Sorry folks, but the 0Z GFS says that it isn't even cold enough under the upper low for any snow! 850's are warmer than 0C....that won't produce snow. Edit: clown has el zilcho for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Looks like the 12z Euro to me as far as track goes...low looks to be weaker off the coast, not sure if this thing will stall and bomb hard or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's just too weak to crank any cold with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I mean it does still have the system though, couldnt the next run just as easily give the cold air back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I like how that vortex that was sitting in the NE has now moved 500+ miles east on this run. Great run-to-run continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yep No hookup and it is a RN event, period, we need the two pieces to tango, circa TN and into central GA like the EC Look at our bloody block, it broke down, compare it to the previous runs, which also killed our phase, as the northern energy over the lakes was further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, it stalls off the NC coast and bombs OTS. New England is actually the winner this run with a light snow event, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I mean it does still have the system though, couldnt the next run just as easily give the cold air back? yeah, it's the GFS... Tonight's Euro should be interesting...will it go inland or will it stay suppressed ? The thing to watch is whether or not this thing goes negative and bombs off the coast, one of these glancing blows with a weak sub 1000mb with the track won't do it for NC...and if it doesn't do it for NC, it better be a different track or it won't happen for anyone. I'd honestly prefer this be a nor'easter solution with good low placement for NC, I wouldn't care if our neighbors up north cash in more but that would be a decent 5-10" solution for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I mean it does still have the system though, couldnt the next run just as easily give the cold air back? Yes or it could get even warmer as the trends have been recently. I certainly have no reason to bet on it getting back to being cold enough for snow but it could always do just that. Regardless, for Atlanta, the overall track sucks vs. a Miller A. A Miller A would be upteen times better for Atlanta. Colder air and more moisture when air is cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 And it hooked back in and clips the NE with a nice event. Just fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Plenty of time folks. This storm ain't hitting the coast until Saturday night to be sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It certainly has the cold air to the north and west to work with should it amplify, my money is on the energy over the lakes gets at-least partially ingested and we end with something sub 990 east of ILM. Sub 1000 is a pretty strong signal for the GFS at this range and the ECWMF's resolution is likely picking up on the late phase, which supports a suppressed track, with more cold air entrainment on the back side setting up the conveyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 What about the ECMWF? Has that been trending colder or warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Robert just posted this on Facebook. Thoughts? http://www.facebook.com/WxSouth Tonights GFS model run is about as expected at wxsouth. The low sharpens up, becomes a "bowling" ball type of upper low and head from Kansas City through Memphis through Atlanta and offshore the SC coast. The GFS always has trouble with surface temps and precip in this type of flow, so it doesn't show much snow outside of Atlanta or Memphis. The track of the 5H feature though is exquistle though for heavy wet snow through the Midsouth once you get on the northern and western shield of the system, so in time the model will adjust by adding much more snow in Tn, Al, northern MS, northern GA much of SC and NC and southeast VA. The system gets to 2 contours cutoff in SC which would pound most of NC with heavy snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday. As the system deepens near western TN I'd draw a secondary maximum there. So far though this is still too far out in time, but all the models have trended toward a Southeast Upper Low, but I suspect the ECMWF model will still have a Virginia, NC, TN, WV hit as well. I'll continue to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 What about the ECMWF? Has that been trending colder or warmer? Warmer ever since it had that classic very weak Miller A low producing major snow for Atlanta and other areas. Not even close to that now and no reason to expect that to return though we could always hope. Edit: remember what I said about very weak Miller A's often being the most prolific snow producers for much of the SE US? Well, ever since that very weak nicely tracking Miller A low in that Euro run, there hasn't been anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Sh!t run, lets just pull the feedback card, kinda looks like it after 150, localized 3"+ 6hr max setting up just inside the BM, would expect better from a made in USA product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 WBTV had 55 and RAIN for CLT Wednesday, aren't they the optimists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The 00z gfs just stunk. It seems the argument that the system is still way out there and not sampled properly is a sign that we're grasping at straws. Most times when that is the argument, it makes no difference in the end. Now, the gfs has been quite inconsistent while the euro has been much more so. AND, the euro while not much better than the gfs in general, it has been a standout on big ticket items which this one appears to be. If it still shows on the 00z euro, then things are still good. After all, we are in that time window when the gfs will sometimes lose the storm or do something goofy (therefore goofus). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Robert just posted this on Facebook. Thoughts? http://www.facebook.com/WxSouth Not trying to answer for him but I get the sense that Robert is leaning toward a March 2009 like scenario...he even states that we shouldn't freak out over the higher surface and 850's at this point. As it gets closer, that will all adjust in favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, Robert seems to "read" it differently. Not so bad this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's just too weak to crank any cold with it. I wouldn't call it weak... looks pretty good for an ULL, especially given the GFS propensity to dampen these systems out at this range This new 0z run was much different with the evolution of the weekend system and thus changed the outlook for our system next week. As we get closer, guidance seems to want to weaken the trof for this weekend. This weekend's event has some responsibility in laying out or carving an upstream path of cold for our mid-week system to make a move into. Since the 0z backed off on the amount of cold that is laid down in advance of our system, 850s showed up warmer ahead of next Tuesday. We have to keep in mind that this is a potent ULL which will wrap some warm air ahead of it if given the chance, and 850s warmed a few degrees ahead of this thing on the 0z run. I'm getting somewhat annoyed at the consistency of what seems to be a barrage trofs or ULLs which move over our heads at positive tilt only to turn neutral or negative in a position to do something as they move just past us... that needs to change in a hurry! I wouldn't put too much stock in this 0z run though, but we don't need this trend to continue and I would be willing to bet the Euro is on to something with the interaction (not really phasing) with the great lakes energy which this 0z GFS runs also lacked Don't worry too much about temps at this range, just focus on the fact that we have an upper-low capable of producing dynamic cooling under its core if it moves directly over your head or just to the south of your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Warmer ever since it had that classic very weak Miller A low producing major snow for Atlanta and other areas. Not even close to that now and no reason to expect that to return though we could always hope. Edit: remember what I said about very weak Miller A's often being the most prolific snow producers for much of the SE US? Well, ever since that very weak nicely tracking Miller A low in that Euro run, there hasn't been anything like it. I think I need to figure out what a Miller A and B are real quick >.< Well shame that it's warmer, I'm staying up to see what the 00z Euro says...crossing my fingers and praying to the weather gods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 0z UK sub 536dm closed, couple contours, just off HAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not trying to answer for him but I get the sense that Robert is leaning toward a March 2009 like scenario...he even states that we shouldn't freak out over the higher surface and 850's at this point. As it gets closer, that will all adjust in favor. I happen to agree with him at this point - very similar track. We all knew this would happen...run wise. It's no different from any other storm we track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 0z UK sub 536dm closed, couple contours, just off HAT Holy cats, pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 this new 0z run was much different with the evolution of the weekend system and thus changed the outlook for our system next week as we get closer, guidance seems to want to weaken the trof for this weekend and this weekend's event has a BIG responsibility in laying out or carving an upstream path of cold for our mid-week system to dive into since the 0z backed off on the amount of cold that is laid down in advance of our system, 850s showed up warmer and we have to keep in mind that this is a potent ULL which will pull some warm air ahead of it if given the chance, and 850s warmed a few degrees ahead of this thing on the 0z run I'm getting somewhat annoyed at the consistency of what seems to be a barrage trofs or ULLs which move over our heads at positive tilt only to turn neutral or negative in a position to do something as they move just past us... that needs to change in a hurry! I wouldn't put too much stock in this 0z run though, but we don't need this trend to continue and I would be willing to bet the Euro is on to something with the interaction (not really phasing) with the great lakes energy which this 0z GFS runs also lacked don't worry too much about temps at this range just focus on the fact that we have an upper-low capable of producing dynamic cooling under its core if it moves directly over your head or just to the south of your location Again - very similar to March 2009. It seems like the energy even came ashore close to where this is progged to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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