franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I can't remember when the JMA hasn't shown a bomb. It always paints a LOT of color on the maps for qpf. I like the looks of it though.it only shows qpf in 24 hour periods so that could be why. I liked the way it looked at 500 was really digging that energy towards Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 HPC is on board with the day 6 through 7, 48hr qpf... & total for the next 7 days, which should be rather chilly for most Now that is some pure weather porn! On a side note I read today that as of 3/5/13 HPC will be known as WPC Weather Prediction Center going forward. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/weather-service-makes-positive-change-hpc-to-wpc/2013/02/28/f99cc416-81d3-11e2-a350-49866afab584_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Now that is some pure weather porn! On a side note I read today that as of 3/5/13 HPC will be known as WPC Weather Prediction Center going forward. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/weather-service-makes-positive-change-hpc-to-wpc/2013/02/28/f99cc416-81d3-11e2-a350-49866afab584_blog.html How the hell is that a positive change? They change from a great name to a lame Weather prediction center. lol Don't fix something that's not broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If you want to be concerned it should be in regards to the phase because without that it will not be cold enough to snow outside of the highest elevations. Having said that, I would caution against getting emotionally involved at this stage. But most of you understand that. To late, RDU hasn't seen measurable snow in years, we are all in on this, we will be going down with the ship on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 To late, RDU hasn't seen measurable snow in years, we are all in on this, we will be going down with the ship on this one. This is so close to a "prepare for glory" moment! All hands on deck mates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm amp'd! Well, for 0z euro anyway....Let's see where this thing goes. No stock in bullseye fantasy, but something is out there for someone next week...and it's close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Allan's latest thoughts. http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-storm-threat-for-south-next-week#sthash.leGg9GD7.uxfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is so close to a "prepare for glory" moment! All hands on deck mates! If the models are close to what the Euro shows today come Sunday 12z, that will be within 72 hours, I will officially start getting excited. For now, the next 2+ days I will try and find anything negative for something to go wrong. One positive is the blocking has held up all day on the models. Hopefully that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If the models are close to what the Euro shows today come Sunday 12z, that will be within 72 hours, I will officially start getting excited. For now, the next 2+ days I will try and find anything negative for something to go wrong. One positive is the blocking has held up all day on the models. Hopefully that holds. Oh, I almost fully expect the Euro to lose the storm, probably on the Saturday runs...hopefully it comes back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Oh, I almost fully expect the Euro to lose the storm, probably on the Saturday runs...hopefully it comes back Well it depends on how it loses it, if it's simply missing the phase or phasing to late than that won't be as bad, if the blocking starts to weaken than we are in trouble, thats one of those things that won't trend back in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If the models are close to what the Euro shows today come Sunday 12z, that will be within 72 hours, I will officially start getting excited. For now, the next 2+ days I will try and find anything negative for something to go wrong. One positive is the blocking has held up all day on the models. Hopefully that holds. im with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If the models are close to what the Euro shows today come Sunday 12z, that will be within 72 hours, I will officially start getting excited. For now, the next 2+ days I will try and find anything negative for something to go wrong. One positive is the blocking has held up all day on the models. Hopefully that holds. LOL, I'm with you here pack...I've been through too many of these. With it being probably being the last storm of the year I'm trying to have some fun with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 LOL, I'm with you here pack...I've been through too many of these. With it being probably being the last storm of the year I'm trying to have some fun with it. I see no reason not to go all in with this one. It's going to be our last chance. So let's do it right. Hug every model that's trending good and reject every one that keeps the snow away. Oh, wait. That's what we always do. Nevermind. The block holding is key. That's number 1 for now, IMO. Number 2 is the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If the models are close to what the Euro shows today come Sunday 12z, that will be within 72 hours, I will officially start getting excited. For now, the next 2+ days I will try and find anything negative for something to go wrong. One positive is the blocking has held up all day on the models. Hopefully that holds. I think the blocking with the NE vortex is going to be fine. The concern I see is the 18z GFS solution of a weaker, faster system. You want to see strong ridging build behind our cutoff so that it can dig, slow down a bit, and separate itself from the NE blocking vortex...additional northern stream phasing from the Great Lakes would help with that as well (that's where strong western ridging comes in again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well it depends on how it loses it, if it's simply missing the phase or phasing to late than that won't be as bad, if the blocking starts to weaken than we are in trouble, thats one of those things that won't trend back in our favor. with our luck there will be no LPS at all... i guess the 00z GFS is coming out now and thats why only some of it is available on allans site? its up to 78 hours...looks like the low goes from OKC to friggin nebraska from 84-90. was this the same one we were watching or am i getting my lows mixed up? lol i'm very new pardon my ignorance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Uh Oh....we have a problem, the trough on the east coast is scooting to the NE quicker this run, much quicker, this will be north, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The differences between 18z and 00z at 500mb is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Starting to really dive southeast by 99...over Northeast Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is going to show a big MA winter storm, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Actually, the GFS so far is pretty darn close to the 12Z Euro. We shall see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 850's look warmer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is going to show a big MA winter storm, oh well. don't worry, it'll screw us over and the storm'll go* north or south like it usually has this winter, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Pretty flipping strong vort for the GFS at this range, seems to be the real deal, still not much interaction with the energy over the UP like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Lots of QPF this run ... in the form of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It would appear to my untrained eye that this run has slowed the storm down to a crawl. Didn't move hardly between 99 and 117. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Still diving SE at 120 hours, no real phasing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 114 has 1012 low over N GA...since it's moving sooo dang slowly and it gets stronger each frame, is there any to get those 850 temps down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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