calculus1 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The Euro wasn't far off for NC/TN and the Ensemble Mean was likely a snowstorm (24-hour panels, though). I still think we might be in business, though things are up in the air. If we don't get some dramatic trends today, it's time to punt the weekend potential, though, IMO (aside from some scattered flizzards). I just took a look at the 06z GFS and it literally shows no precip whatsoever from the 3/6 system for central NC. Not one drop of rain. Not one flake of snow. Nada. Yikes. Not picking on you, James, because many people use this analogy, but I just don't understand this one. Why are we punting, so to speak? In football, you punt when a first down is unlikely and you hope to pin the opponent down against his own endzone. What do we gain in this hobby of ours by punting? Do we get better field position somehow? I'm all for "going for it" on fourth down! So what if we get stuffed at the line of scrimmage? We are not then less likely to have a winning drive with the next system, are we? Anyway, I just thought I'd argue semantics against a phrase that doesn't seem to apply, in my opinion, but is used quite frequently on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Agreed, the vort did close but opened back up fairly quickly, this should produce some light snow in NC/SC, IMO. Better than nothing, but seems something always goes wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well, nothing on the surface. Watching the model come in on the 500mb map, I'm surprised there wasn't some light qpf in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 What another terrible run. No trending in our favor at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I'm not giving up. I know we're going to run out of time, ten more days and ten more days is going to run into April. Can someone tell me why its so hard to have low to form in the gulf while we have the cold air in place? Why do we seem to have great signals now but every storm seems to be doing the opposite of what we need. I'm cornfused, but still hoping for the weekend or next week before we run out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I'm not giving up. I know we're going to run out of time, ten more days and ten more days is going to run into April. Can someone tell me why its so hard to have low to form in the gulf while we have the cold air in place? Why do we seem to have great signals now but every storm seems to be doing the opposite of what we need. I'm cornfused, but still hoping for the weekend or next week before we run out of time. I believe the trough is just too far east to get a Gulf low. The PNA ridge needs to be further west to allow something to dig in and tap Gulf moisture, then ride up the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Any good signs on the GFS for the 6th? Next weeks storm still going to our north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 What another terrible run. No trending in our favor at all. Terrible is an understatement for the 2nd event, the flow is very flat, it's hard to envision the energy digging far enough south to hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Big snowstorm in MN day 6. When was the last time a low in MN dived south underneath us and gave a snow storm.....never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well done, Bevo. I tripped over some bullocks at the door and then saw that Brick was in here. So far so good. JK Brick It is hard to believe that such a deep and energetic trough with all the right teleconnections in place this weekend won't produce something for someone. I think we see QPF ramp up over the next 24-48. Considering this weekend (3/2 specifically), I find it interesting that NWS is comparing it to the 2/16 surprise in Upstate SC. I know I've sworn off the Never Again Man, but if that energy does in fact manage to close off even a minor ULL that far south, I could see it happening again. It don't know that convection would burst as robustly this time though. In my opinion, the areas with the best chance of seeing snow this weekend are the WNC mountains (TN/NC border for sure), NW SC and possibly NE GA - as it looks at the moment. Outside elevation, I don't think it digs far enough south to really amp the qpf - but I thought that on 2/16 as well. ***Edit*** Finally had time to look at the 12Z...uhhhh...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Any good signs on the GFS for the 6th? Next weeks storm still going to our north? Looks north right now but is closed off at hr 135. I have a hard time believing it's going to stay north w/ the blocking but it might not come far enough south for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I'm not giving up. I know we're going to run out of time, ten more days and ten more days is going to run into April. Can someone tell me why its so hard to have low to form in the gulf while we have the cold air in place? Why do we seem to have great signals now but every storm seems to be doing the opposite of what we need. I'm cornfused, but still hoping for the weekend or next week before we run out of time. I don't get it, either. It's been like that every time we seem to have a "great pattern." It shouldn't be that hard to get a low in the Gulf when we have the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 12z GFS is a train wreck. Has that cut off low day 6 heading to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 12z GFS is a train wreck. Has that cut off low day 6 heading to Ohio.Yep, so much for the block.Weird look to me though for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 12z GFS is a train wreck. Has that cut off low day 6 heading to Ohio. Yeah it is....The vortex in the Atlantic is breaking down just in time to let slide east and north of us. We just can't get any trends to go in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well @165 the low appears to be heading almost due south. These crazy ULLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I don't get it, either. It's been like that every time we seem to have a "great pattern." It shouldn't be that hard to get a low in the Gulf when we have the cold air.actually it is in a nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 ^ And I'm sure the full 12Z suite will come in with broad agreement on the total screw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Yeah it is....The vortex in the Atlantic is breaking down just in time to let slide east and north of us. We just can't get any trends to go in our favor. The low is so far north but then hits the blocking and literally nose dives south. I don't what the heck to think on this storm, except to watch more models :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 @171 could be a descent hit of snow for just north of RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 @171 could be a descent hit of snow for just north of RDU. How far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well it closes off @174 letting it put down about an inch in central NC. What a crazy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Yep, so much for the block. Weird look to me though for next week. the block is forcing it south. The energy enters the conus in Washington state. Usually when energy enters the country in Washington state they go north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 At 168-171 looks marginally cold enough at upper levels for frozen precip in NC. Am I wrong there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The low is so far north but then hits the blocking and literally nose dives south. I don't what the heck to think on this storm, except to watch more models :-) Just a crazy run....I don't know what to think. My thinking was the vortex was breaking down so it would slide just to the north of us but it was like it just hit a wall and started moving dead south as burger mentioned. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 @177 it has put down .25 on most of NC which would mainly be snow. .50 just west of CLT along the border of NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is that low stalling off the coast of SC at 180? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 You might need one of the biggest grains of salt you've ever seen for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 There is no way a ULL is going to swing southeast from the northwest the way the GFS is showing and produce a big snowstorm around here. That's just stoopid weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 @177 it has put down .25 on most of NC which would mainly be snow. .50 just west of CLT along the border of NC/SC. Well, that's finally a good step in the right direction. Maybe it will keep trending better. Pleanty of time left. I just hope it doesn't start to go backwards like this weekend's system seems to be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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