SnowNiner Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 So 18Z GFS was a tad south but still no snow in the Carolinas? Must just have been too warm and all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 So 18Z GFS was a tad south but still no snow in the Carolinas? Must just have been too warm and all rain. System says "bye, im going OTS immediately!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 So 18Z GFS was a tad south but still no snow in the Carolinas? Must just have been too warm and all rain. No, it was basically no precip at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 So 18Z GFS was a tad south but still no snow in the Carolinas? Must just have been too warm and all rain. Looks like a VERY light shade of green over NC/SC line, maybe 0.1 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 No, it was basically no precip at all. Wow, did it not phase? No surface low? Wondering what changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 No, it was basically no precip at all. And phase way to late, not sure what the biggest concern should be....north trend or lack of phase. I just want someone on the EC to get a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Looks like a VERY light shade of green over NC/SC line, maybe 0.1 inches of snow. That 0.1 is pointless for anyone really. Ensemble individuals/mean will show a bit more I'm sure. Not all of them can miss that phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I heard some of the mets saying the worst of the models to watch is the 18z, usually doesn't have a good handle on things. now for what its worth is what I've heard. I really don't know myself. I bet tonight you'll see the storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I heard some of the other mets saying the worst of the models to watch is the 18z, usually doesn't have a good handle on things. now for what its worth is what I've heard. I really don't know myself. UNLESS it shows a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I heard some of the mets saying the worst of the models to watch is the 18z, usually doesn't have a good handle on things. now for what its worth is what I've heard. I really don't know myself. I bet tonight you'll see the storm again. 06z & 18z use data from the 00 and 12z respectively. So some of it is "out of date" to say. I personally think they should focus on just 4D on the GFS and throwing out the 4 runs a day like the Euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 UNLESS it shows a big hit honestly this is only what I've heard and that was last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Big hit for ATL on this run. I don't think 850's ever get cold enough for snow at Atl. System is too far north. Also, clown shows nothing. 12z Goofy obviously much better for Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Some lessons I have learned about the GFS......you don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out because change is a given. If you have to bank on a shift you better hope you are north rather than south. Now this has been a year when things seem to go haywire but, in the grand scheme of things. It could be worse than it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 this map I have a feeling will change for the better. just have a good feeling about next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 too far out to be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 18z is just as reliable as any other run. This subject has come up numerous times and the 18z being inferior has been debunked. There is a post a met made in the met 101 forum that lays it all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Some lessons I have learned about the GFS......you don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out because change is a given. If you have to bank on a shift you better hope you are north rather than south. Now this has been a year when things seem to go haywire but, in the grand scheme of things. It could be worse than it is right now. Or if you are down here in Ga. you want it much further south So it becomes a battle of who's mojo is best, lol. If it's showing anybody anything at all in 3 days, I'll be happy for somebody It's still holding my .01 for this weekend. and I'm focused on that like a laser T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 5 days away + 18Z GFS + "Big hit for ATL this run" = .00000002% of this storm happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/ 18z vs other runs discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If you want to be concerned it should be in regards to the phase because without that it will not be cold enough to snow outside of the highest elevations. Having said that, I would caution against getting emotionally involved at this stage. But most of you understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 18z is just as reliable as any other run. This subject has come up numerous times and the 18z being inferior has been debunked. There is a post a met made in the met 101 forum that lays it all out. Thank you for clarifying this. Folks always say 18 and 6z runs are not good. They are all just equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 To bad it's not tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Just getting home from work and playing ketchup, what did I miss? I appreciate the level of discussion today, all around, as I read through the last several pages, you guys (& gals) were serving it up top notch. In what was likely one of our heavier trafficked Thursday afternoons in some time, zero reports came out of the SE sub, very impressive. In reading the posts from a boarder-line epic EC run today, it reminded me of good times past, crap posts were few and far between, and everyone was adding something to the disco, which made it the best place to be on the web for SE wx-junkies, and anyone for that matter looking for accurate and engaged disco on next weeks potential. Again, thank you, wish I had more access during the day but right now it is very difficult to break away and check in. 18z DGEX has a sub 1000 well east of Cape Canaveral fyi , just about perfect 7 days out! Add in the NOGAPS which pretty much lacks a system and the 18z GFS being suppressed, all the things we like to see at this range with the Euro having fairly good run to run continuity. As Don just mentioned, be ready for the perturbations as we head in to the 3-5 day out range, what may look good at day 7 likely verifies significantly different than initially advertised. From my experience with these systems that move either w-e or wnw - ese, you want to be about 100 miles north of where that bullet sets up 3 days out on the guidance to compensate for the inevitable northward trend. While the Euro may have looked to smoke NC, I would suspect a warm nose between about 875 and 925 situated under the heavier axis, you can clearly see it at 850, and with strong system that close to the coast, often times you get that warm punch just above the surface. Yeah, I know, to early to talk about BL issues so I will stop. RAH has a rare day 6 HWO out highlighting the potential for a strong storm, even mentions the S word. MHX too, but they only highlight the wind and coastal flooding threat, and RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 To bad it's not tomorrow Is this fromt he 12z or the 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Just getting home from work and playing ketchup, what did I miss? Playing ketchup? Really? Doesn't that get kind of messy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Is this fromt he 12z or the 18z? Blue is 12,dark is 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Or if you are down here in Ga. you want it much further south So it becomes a battle of who's mojo is best, lol. If it's showing anybody anything at all in 3 days, I'll be happy for somebody It's still holding my .01 for this weekend. and I'm focused on that like a laser T All my chips are on the table too and I sure hope someone in the se gets to cash in But first I'm waiting patiently for my flizzard to arrive. I had to stock up on more black construction paper after this last flizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Euro ensemble mean drops over a half inch of liquid imby. The highest surface temps get is 35. Don't know about 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 All my chips are on the table too and I sure hope someone in the se gets to cash in But first I'm waiting patiently for my flizzard to arrive. I had to stock up on more black construction paper after this last flizzard You and me both Buckeye! I sure as heck had to get my construction paper too. lol Hoping this time we won't need it , in order to see something fall. I bet you miss Ohio too, winter wx wise. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 HPC is on board with the day 6 through 7, 48hr qpf... & total for the next 7 days, which should be rather chilly for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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