Thrasher Fan Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 FFC taking a wait and see attitude. Smart. OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. STILLSOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT 12Z ECMWF ISACTUALLY TRENDING CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS /KIND OF A SURPRISE...USUALLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF/ WITH BRINGINGA COLD...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SURFACE LOWMOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITHFRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY TO ADD THUNDER...BUT BOTH BRING THECOLD CORE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY. GFS BRINGSOVER 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...GENERALLY JUSTSOUTH AND WEST OF THE METRO AREA. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY OUT THERE INFANTASYLAND BUT INTERESTING NONETHELESS...AND FORECAST TRENDS WILLHAVE TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 All rain? Jeez...thanks for not taking the dagger and sticking it through my heart GSP. Onto Spring. they are being cautious while taking the late winter approach. you really think they are going to hype this 6 days out? lets be patient here....give it a few more cycles of runs before we can move on or not to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well it looks like we've got a storm on our hands at least. Sure would like to work on the temps though. Man, why couldn't this set up happen in January?? Here's Raleigh's disco... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND SUBSIDENT CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCURMON-MON NIGHT...BETWEEN THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE VORTEX DEPARTING THEEAST COAST AND A POTENT S/W TROUGH/BRIEFLY CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECASTTO AMPLIFY TO THE SOUTHEAST US COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE DEVELOPMENTWILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD...ON A GENERALLY DUE EASTERLY TRACKFROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SC COAST...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILLGAIN VERY LITTLE LATITUDE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST OWING TO THEAFOREMENTIONED BLOCKING RIDGE FORECAST TO RETROGRADE ACROSSQUEBEC...AND THE LINGERING VORTEX OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST (SOUTH OFNOVA SCOTIA). WHETHER OR NOT THE SURFACE CYCLONE JOGS NORTHWARD INRESPONSE TO POSSIBLE STREAM PHASING...DEPICTED ON THE LAST COUPLE OFRUNS OF THE ECMWF IS MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH INCREASING MEDIUM RANGEGUIDANCE SPREAD ON DAYS 6-7. SO WHILE PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANTPRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS IS HIGH...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTHINTO CENTRAL NC THAT THREAT WOULD EXTEND...AND CONSEQUENTLY WHATSORT OF WINTRY WEATHER IMPACT COULD OCCUR. WILL ACCORDINGLY INDICATEA CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...HIGHEST AROUND 50 PERCENT ALONG THE SCBORDER...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...WITH A WORDING OF RAIN OR SNOWGIVEN THE PATTERN (WITH LITTLE THREAT OF ICE) AND UNCERTAINTIESOUTLINED ABOVE. THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR MEASURABLESNOW..AND RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP ABREAST OFTHE LATEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 FFC taking a wait and see attitude. Smart. OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. STILLSOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT 12Z ECMWF ISACTUALLY TRENDING CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS /KIND OF A SURPRISE...USUALLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF/ WITH BRINGINGA COLD...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SURFACE LOWMOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITHFRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY TO ADD THUNDER...BUT BOTH BRING THECOLD CORE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY. GFS BRINGSOVER 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...GENERALLY JUSTSOUTH AND WEST OF THE METRO AREA. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY OUT THERE INFANTASYLAND BUT INTERESTING NONETHELESS...AND FORECAST TRENDS WILLHAVE TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED. This is NOT DT approved. Sorry - had to be said. I am curious as to what big differences FFC is referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well it looks like we've got a storm on our hands at least. Sure would like to work on the temps though. Man, why couldn't this set up happen in January?? Truthfully though - I'm not sure it would be much different this year. Climo favored the January ULL, but the 925's didn't care. Albeit, that ULL was not very strong and had a less favorable track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Thanks for articulating the Georgia frustration so well, Lookout! It made made lol for dang sure! :lmao: lol you are welcome. And lol at it making you laugh. You should hear me in person. Glad I'm not the only one that is frustrated lol lol u need to move bro. georgia (outside of the mountains) is a snow hell. it's not like NC is that great, but i grew up seeing great storms and expect at least a couple storms each year. i couldn't live in a place where they get 40-60 inches per year. that's too much for me. i like where we sit, but sometimes we get screwed while VA get's it. You ain't kidding man. I think back to a few years ago and all the snow we got and how great it was...now we are back to snow hell, as you so rightfully put it. It's so depressing. I wish I could move but it's not in the cards for the time being. I wish I could move around 4000 feet in NC or around boone/jefferson (wouldn't want to leave the southeast and not have great posters like yourself around). I would LOVE the sudden weather changes up there.......not to mention the better chances of snow. Plus I LOVE the mountains, regardless of the weather. I wouldn't want to live in a place with that much snow either. It's not special when you get that much. I know what you mean about VA vs NC....they do get a lot. But man, I wish people to the north knew how frustrating it is to not get anything here when you want it so bad...meanwhile so many posters to the north (NC) get at least something. NC is so much better winter weather wise than here, I know it's been a little while but I mean you guys have had those 10 to 20 inch storms (not sure on the totals but i know it's a lot)...and it's so much easier for places like HKY to get freezing temps with cad than here and you know how much of a freak I am when it comes to cad lol. So NC is very good, including outside the mountains IMHO...*especially when you compare it to here* Anywho, I know this is off topic and deserves to be in the banter thread but oh well...I have the right LOL. Back to weather, it's amazing to me how the models have kept some light precip over the upstate and far eastern NE ga (I'm right on the edge) run after run. There is obviously a surface trough that comes into play. I just wonder if the models are underestimating totals like they did here with a similar situation. If I recall there was a strong cold front, upper level disturbance, and a surface trough that caused i and the forecast and the models put out virtually nothing precip wise yet picked up 4 inches and it is still to this day one of my favorite snows since it was unexpected, no wind, huge flakes, and lasted for around 18 hours. At any rate, I know it's not likely to happen with this (especially since the models have been decreasing moisture aloft gradually)...but whenever i see situations like this, I always hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If the track is GFS ish then this could turn into a good one for a lot of folks around here! Good disco today and for the first time in 2 years I feel mby has a chance. Just wish that it could deliver to all of us NE Ga and NW SC peeps that have been snowless for a while...I think it owes us and Lookout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 gsp disco Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... However... using a model blend for temperatures and precipitation timing...we do have rain changing to snow across the mountains/foothills and I-40 corridor Tuesday night with a mix to the south. Precipitation changes back to rain for all but the highest elevations Wednesday...then ends as snow across the mountains Wednesday night. Will have to keep a watch for this period as any deviation could lead to a significant snow event for at last part of the County warning forecast area. GSP needs to be written up for this...lol. How in the h-bomb is overnight snow going to change back to rain when profiles would be getting colder as the storm progresses? I hope isohume didn't write this up...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 FFC taking a wait and see attitude. Smart. OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. STILLSOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT 12Z ECMWF ISACTUALLY TRENDING CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS /KIND OF A SURPRISE...USUALLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF/ WITH BRINGINGA COLD...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SURFACE LOWMOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITHFRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY TO ADD THUNDER...BUT BOTH BRING THECOLD CORE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY. GFS BRINGSOVER 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...GENERALLY JUSTSOUTH AND WEST OF THE METRO AREA. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY OUT THERE INFANTASYLAND BUT INTERESTING NONETHELESS...AND FORECAST TRENDS WILLHAVE TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED. Now see that exactly what I'm talking about. If it's a bowling ball, you have to be in the sweet spot. And why is west central Ga. out there in fantasy land, but if it were to be Gainesville, well, that'd be ok Lookout sometimes has less that cordial feelings about NC getting all the glory. Well, how the hell do you think I feel when every thing is just fantasy south of I 20, lol. It's such bs. I 20 does not divide civilization from dragon land. We are perfectly capable of getting snow from a ULL crossing under Columbus as has been shown twice in the last 6 years. And what kills me is KFFC is down here too!!! Don't they know there aren't any dragons down here?? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GSP needs to be written up for this...lol. How in the h-bomb is overnight snow going to change back to rain when profiles would be getting colder as the storm progresses? I hope isohume didn't write this up...lol Not enough verbatims in there for isohume! Seriously though I was a bit confused by this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 FWIW (virtually nothing) 18z NAM at 84 hours has s/w in roughly the same place as 12z GFS. It is much more of an open wave, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Now from the winter weather experts... Blacksburg The main challenge for the early half of next week revolves around the arrival of a deep low pressure system as an upper level disturbance approaches from the Central Plains. The 12z versions of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) forecast models have shifted into similar agreement as to the track and timing of the low's passage...taking the system across the southeastern states Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. However...both models have been significantly shifting the track of this low from run to run...so confidence in the latest track is not very high ...and would not be surprised to see the models shift the track further north during the weekend. At any rate...the track of the low will be important in determining temperatures and the type of precipitation we can expect. A more southerly track will allow colder air to build into our area...resulting in a greater potential for snow...while a more northerly track...closer to our area...will bring warmer air and a better chance for rain or mixed precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 EPS control run from the 12z is a big hit from the foothills east in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 EPS control run drops around .75 from the foothills to CLT and from CLT east over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 EPS control run drops around .75 from the foothills to CLT and from CLT east over an inch. Thanks for the info burger...So not far off from the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 EPS control run from the 12z is a big hit from the foothills east in NC. Temps more marginal on the TN side but still good to see this on the control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 lol you are welcome. And lol at it making you laugh. You should hear me in person. Glad I'm not the only one that is frustrated lol About to post a possible remedy for you in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 EPS control run drops around .75 from the foothills to CLT and from CLT east over an inch.Where's the precip gradient as you go north in nc?TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Thanks for the info burger...So not far off from the op run. It destroys I-95 in NC, probably 2" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It destroys I-95 in NC, probably 2" QPF. I'm close enough to I-95 to take it I get partially destroyed...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Does it have any snow for the Upstate or North Georgia? Not really for GA out side of the far northern fringes. Upstate of SC gets in the game but like GA only the fringes...this is based on the control run snow maps which are always terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Does it have any snow for the Upstate or North Georgia? It's all rain for the upstate area according to GSP sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Are we talking about this weekends storm or early next week's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 EPS control run drops around .75 from the foothills to CLT and from CLT east over an inch. Does that fall as all snow? Or is it a rain to snow changeover like the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Are we talking about this weekends storm or early next week's? Early next week's. This weekends's storm got lost in Brick Tamland land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 It's all rain for the upstate area according to GSP sadly. Come on J. - GSP didn't say ALL rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 ST21--Most discussion currently is regarding mid next weeks system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 No matter what some people on this board are going to want to throw their computers out the window after watching all week and getting nothing. While other will be . Mountains as usual do well, foothills I think has the biggest chance of a complete miss. Those east of 85 look to big the big winners. The way this system is coming in it is ripe for a foothills skip. Columbia to Charlotte to GSO to Richmond on east as of now looks to be the winners . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It's all rain for the upstate area according to GSP sadly. Geez man, storms almost a week away. Nothing is locked in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 No matter what some people on this board are going to want to throw their computers out the window after watching all week and getting nothing. While other will be . Mountains as usual do well, foothills I think has the biggest chance of a complete miss. Those east of 85 look to big the big winners. The way this system is coming in it is ripe for a foothills skip. Columbia to Charlotte to GSO to Richmond on east as of now looks to be the winners . I disagree. The foothills probably sit in the best situation of all right now (outside the mountains). Sure, you all may not get slammed like I-95 potentially could, but you all are probably guaranteed a good thump AND if the storm trends further north, phases earlier, etc., the foothills have more room to play around with. Plus, 850s, BL temps, etc. are colder. Anyways, I love the models today! This thing is looking better and better. I was afraid that yesterday's hope was false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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