MillerA Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Jeff Crum (@WeatherCrum) tweeted at 2:10 PM on Thu, Feb 28, 2013: Newest EURO Run; 12z. We have a trend 2 track 4 NXT WK. #ncwx #triadwx #cltwx http://t.co/DWf005uAuy (https://twitter.com/WeatherCrum/status/307206120106229760) This says Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 We have a really good chance over the next 6 days. With the cutoff sitting up there over new england and over the atlantic, this will slow the flow down so to speak and really amp up phasing opporutinites. No question there will be a slow moving cutoff system over the south next week. I like the position we're sitting in and that it's still suppressed at this point. I have no doubt NC will, as always, benefit from a system like this, while we get screwed...as always. You don't know how maddening that is...especially when most of us have gotten nothing and NC, even if it's not big events, have gotten at least something several times. Yeah yeah yeah, I live in north Ga and NC has a lot better chance every winter..but when you see the radar and members here in NC being so happy and excited, while we git sh*t...god I get frustrated, if not flat out angry. No offense but honestly Sometimes I hate NC. Talking about boundary issues with a phased event is just silly. I totally agree. Heavy precip combined with with temps not much above freezing in the boundary layer (with freezing or sub freezing surface temps which is huge and not like other storms this winter) with wetbulbs close to below freezing (not to mention cold enough mid level temps...all of this at least on this run)....along with likely good dynamics aloft, it would be hard to believe anyone under the precip wouldn't get snow, sleet, or even freezing rain. in some areas.. DT is cussing the 12z GFS is so bad. Won't post that here. Take FWIW, probably nothing IMO. Well of course he is, since it doesn't give the center of the weather universe snow. His forecasts are like clockwork.....if it doesn't give the suck ass fooking mid atlantic, it's got to be wrong. Dt is pathetic in this regard. Could it come north and give them snow? Well obviously but anyone outside of the MA or new england even, you really are waisting your time. I can't remember how many times he's busted badly on snow events and especially ice storms down here. HKY, Allen, jeremy, and myself have owned him so many times on winter weather down here, especially big ice storms/events (well when they used to actually happen lol). There was one time especially where we all embarrassed him so badly it was like beating a 5 year old..and he wasn't too happy about it either lol. Fact is,He knows nothing about local climate and cad down here. Word of advice, SE folks should ignore him. All he cares about is the mid atlantic and new england...and will say anything to get the MA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 At 5-7 days out? I wouldn't be throwing away ANY model run just yet... The CMC diverges from the consensus track starting around the day 3 timeframe. I’m not saying we have lock on how things will evolve, just that the CMC solution of a low through the great lakes isn’t going to verify.... unless it pulled the coup of the century on the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 NAVGEM has an early phase and thus tracks the SLP up through HKY and pounds the MA to the NE. Nothing off the table at the moment, it all depends on when/where/if the phase occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'm sure DT will say it's too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 I have no doubt NC will, as always, benefit from a system like this, while we get screwed...as always. You don't know how maddening that is...especially when most of us have gotten nothing and NC, even if it's not big events, have gotten at least something several times. Yeah yeah yeah, I live in north Ga and NC has a lot better chance every winter..but when you see the radar and members here in NC being so happy and excited, while we git sh*t...god I get frustrated, if not flat out angry. No offense but honestly Sometimes I hate NC. I just had people down the hall from me ask what was so funny (see bold). Again - BL temps have nothing to weigh against at this stage as far as I'm concerned. We don't know that this will still exist 72 hours from the onset. If the dynamics hold and this really becomes a solid ULL, then I'll be willing to pit BL temps against it and determine what issues I may still have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 And, actually, I was talking 4 years back, and 6 years back when Ull's come down the trough, cut under around Columbus and gave me a bunch of snow each time, in late March. No gulf involved, not so much moisture, and borderline cold as they were bringing their own rain and cold with them. So...I got a lot, Atlanta go a lot less, and Greg, and Dawson, got squat. These things can be so very specific in who they bless if the gulf isn't involved Which is why to lessen the mass crying, I would much rather see the gulf involved, lol. But I believe it was one of those that trashed Robert's place, as it strengthened going east. And looking out a week, and guessing, is just that, guessing. But I sure hope you see some snow flakes, Larry!! :) And this weekend first! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I just had people down the hall from me ask what was so funny (see bold). Again - BL temps have nothing to weigh against at this stage as far as I'm concerned. We don't know that this will still exist 72 hours from the onset. If the dynamics hold and this really becomes a solid ULL, then I'll be willing to pit BL temps against it and determine what issues I may still have. Yep it's a long ways off. However, it does have ensemble support. I would like to see the ULL a good 50 to 75 miles further south but I doubt that happens. As already discussed, these systems usually trend north a bit so I doubt it a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT through out March 80, as far as the look and when you look at the maps you see some similarities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 NAVGEM has an early phase and thus tracks the SLP up through HKY and pounds the MA to the NE. Nothing off the table at the moment, it all depends on when/where/if the phase occurs. Where do you find these maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT through out March 80, as far as the look and when you look at the maps you see some similarities... I have been feeling that same vibe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It looks like the blocking vortex is quite a bit further south on our system than in 1980 to me. The orientation of our upper energy looks very similar though. DT through out March 80, as far as the look and when you look at the maps you see some similarities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Yep it's a long ways off. However, it does have ensemble support. I would like to see the ULL a good 50 to 75 miles further south but I doubt that happens. As already discussed, these systems usually trend north so I doubt it a lot. I completely agree with the north trend characteristics these often show. And it seems to really start that trek upward around 48-72 hours out. If it's still there on Monday, I'll begin looking at where I may fall in terms of north/south orientation, and how that will relate to my temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I have no doubt NC will, as always, benefit from a system like this, while we get screwed...as always. You don't know how maddening that is...especially when most of us have gotten nothing and NC, even if it's not big events, have gotten at least something several times. Yeah yeah yeah, I live in north Ga and NC has a lot better chance every winter..but when you see the radar and members here in NC being so happy and excited, while we git sh*t...god I get frustrated, if not flat out angry. No offense but honestly Sometimes I hate NC. I totally agree. Heavy precip combined with with temps not much above freezing in the boundary layer (with freezing or sub freezing surface temps which is huge and not like other storms this winter) with wetbulbs close to below freezing (not to mention cold enough mid level temps...all of this at least on this run)....along with likely good dynamics aloft, it would be hard to believe anyone under the precip wouldn't get snow, sleet, or even freezing rain. in some areas.. Well of course he is, since it doesn't give the center of the weather universe snow. His forecasts are like clockwork.....if it doesn't give the suck ass fooking mid atlantic, it's got to be wrong. Dt is pathetic in this regard. Could it come north and give them snow? Well obviously but anyone outside of the MA or new england even, you really are waisting your time. I can't remember how many times he's busted badly on snow events and especially ice storms down here. HKY, Allen, jeremy, and myself have owned him so many times on winter weather down here, especially big ice storms/events (well when they used to actually happen lol). There was one time especially where we all embarrassed him so badly it was like beating a 5 year old..and he wasn't too happy about it either lol. Fact is,He knows nothing about local climate and cad down here. Word of advice, SE folks should ignore him. All he cares about is the mid atlantic and new england...and will say anything to get the MA snow. Damn.....preach it brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Where do you find these maps? FNMOC site...here you go... https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013022812∏=500τ=120&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z GFS has the LPS that would be affecting us moving real slow...at 114 its only in mississippi/arkansas and at 156, 2 days later it has only just moved to NC...it strengthens every day. Is this a good thing? Lol. Why is it moving so slow? Love the fact that the ECMWF at least has the storm in the same area/same time frame. That's got to mean something haha. What's the last major storm that the GFS and ECMWF nailed at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Damn.....preach it brother! I nominate Lookout as this forum's Pope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z GFS has the LPS that would be affecting us moving real slow...at 114 its only in mississippi/arkansas and at 156, 2 days later it has only just moved to NC...it strengthens every day. Is this a good thing? Lol. Why is it moving so slow? Love the fact that the ECMWF at least has the storm in the same area/same time frame. That's got to mean something haha. What's the last major storm that the GFS and ECMWF nailed at this range? Slow because of the blocking, probably overdone as far as slowness, but we will see. Stronger is better in IMO, regardless of track we need it strong as the dynamics are needed to help with lack of artic air. Several big storms are picked up 5-7 days out, especially by the Euro. For our area the last big storm we had was the Dec 2010 and that was picked up at this range by the Euro. Still, things could fall apart, and usually do, there is a reason we don't get big storms that often. Well there is lots of reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I completely agree with the north trend characteristics these often show. And it seems to really start that trek upward around 48-72 hours out. If it's still there on Monday, I'll begin looking at where I may fall in terms of north/south orientation, and how that will relate to my temps. I should say the gfs track is pretty good. Euro though is too far north Damn.....preach it brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I should say the gfs track is pretty good. Euro though is too far north you shouldn't feel bad , you guys have peaches, Ray Charles , and Jimmy Carter................ much cooler than any snow totals for NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Thanks for articulating the Georgia frustration so well, Lookout! It made made lol for dang sure! :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I have no doubt NC will, as always, benefit from a system like this, while we get screwed...as always. You don't know how maddening that is...especially when most of us have gotten nothing and NC, even if it's not big events, have gotten at least something several times. Yeah yeah yeah, I live in north Ga and NC has a lot better chance every winter..but when you see the radar and members here in NC being so happy and excited, while we git sh*t...god I get frustrated, if not flat out angry. No offense but honestly Sometimes I hate NC. I totally agree. Heavy precip combined with with temps not much above freezing in the boundary layer (with freezing or sub freezing surface temps which is huge and not like other storms this winter) with wetbulbs close to below freezing (not to mention cold enough mid level temps...all of this at least on this run)....along with likely good dynamics aloft, it would be hard to believe anyone under the precip wouldn't get snow, sleet, or even freezing rain. in some areas.. Well of course he is, since it doesn't give the center of the weather universe snow. His forecasts are like clockwork.....if it doesn't give the suck ass fooking mid atlantic, it's got to be wrong. Dt is pathetic in this regard. Could it come north and give them snow? Well obviously but anyone outside of the MA or new england even, you really are waisting your time. I can't remember how many times he's busted badly on snow events and especially ice storms down here. HKY, Allen, jeremy, and myself have owned him so many times on winter weather down here, especially big ice storms/events (well when they used to actually happen lol). There was one time especially where we all embarrassed him so badly it was like beating a 5 year old..and he wasn't too happy about it either lol. Fact is,He knows nothing about local climate and cad down here. Word of advice, SE folks should ignore him. All he cares about is the mid atlantic and new england...and will say anything to get the MA snow. lol u need to move bro. georgia (outside of the mountains) is a snow hell. it's not like NC is that great, but i grew up seeing great storms and expect at least a couple storms each year. i couldn't live in a place where they get 40-60 inches per year. that's too much for me. i like where we sit, but sometimes we get screwed while VA get's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 NAVGEM has an early phase and thus tracks the SLP up through HKY and pounds the MA to the NE. Nothing off the table at the moment, it all depends on when/where/if the phase occurs. its not just about the phase. last nights euro had an early huge phase that would have given DC to Boston a HECS but the super strong block positioned too westwardly did not allow the low, once it cutoff, to gain latitude. the phase only accomplishes one part of the entire evolution of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 SLP track on the Euro ensemble mean looks favorable for Carolina snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 gsp disco Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... as of 300 PM Thursday...becoming increasingly likely that a cold wet weather system will affect the southeastern US Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Before then...upper low moves east of the area ending any lingering snow showers over the NC mountains Monday evening...with a short wave ridge building in fro Tuesday. Surface high pressure noses in from the northwest Monday keeping a cool air mass in place over the area. Lows Monday night as much as 5 degrees below normal with highs Tuesday as much as 10 degrees below normal. Everything changes Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper low strengthens and moves over or near the area. The GFS takes the low farther south of the area and is faster while the European model (ecmwf) takes the low over SC and is slower. At the surface...the GFS takes the surface low south of the area and brings significant precipitation into the western County warning forecast area Tuesday morning...then across the southern County warning forecast area Tuesday night. Other than some northwest flow snow Wednesday...the GFS is basically dry for the rest of the County warning forecast area. The European model (ecmwf) brings significant precipitation to basically the entire County warning forecast area Tuesday...shows light precipitation County warning forecast area wide Tuesday night...then brings another round of significant precipitation to the County warning forecast area Wednesday. Both models are dry for Thursday. The GFS is colder due to its farther south track and is backed up by its ensemble mean. The European model (ecmwf) is warmer early with the more northerly track...then is cold for Wednesday...but not as cold as the GFS. The plume diagrams from the gefs still show a significant number of members with rain during this event...so a significant snow storm is not a given. However... using a model blend for temperatures and precipitation timing...we do have rain changing to snow across the mountains/foothills and I-40 corridor Tuesday night with a mix to the south. Precipitation changes back to rain for all but the highest elevations Wednesday...then ends as snow across the mountains Wednesday night. Will have to keep a watch for this period as any deviation could lead to a significant snow event for at last part of the County warning forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 There is a siginificant thermal boundary on the euro. For instance, the temps transition from 50 in ATL to mid and low 30's in NC at 00z wednesday. That's probably a combo of precip rates, sun angle, dynamics, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 All rain? Jeez...thanks for not taking the dagger and sticking it through my heart GSP. Onto Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 SLP track on the Euro ensemble mean looks favorable for Carolina snow. Ens mean Euro.png Interesting, the ENS Mean is stronger than the Op run at 144, the OP run did deepen the low after this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 There is a siginificant thermal boundary on the euro. For instance, the temps transition from 50 in ATL to mid and low 30's in NC at 00z wednesday. That's probably a combo of precip rates, sun angle, dynamics, etc. Is there a chance this cuts off over the southeast and not off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 KCAE 12Z GFS: over an nch of liquid, then half inch precip as snow, then back to rain. ew 126 03/05 18Z 44 36 61 5 0.07 0.00 543 556 0.9 -19.2 1015.6 60 -RA 088FEW113 136SCT228 228BKN278 47 33 15.3 132 03/06 00Z 38 37 65 9 0.31 0.00 544 554 1.8 -20.6 1012.8 100 RA 051BKN114 115BKN211 228SCT269 43 38 0.5 138 03/06 06Z 36 35 36 15 0.52 0.00 540 548 0.7 -23.3 1008.4 100 RA 039BKN112 113BKN225 226BKN261 38 36 0.5 144 03/06 12Z 33 30 12 14 0.54 0.00 536 546 -4.1 -24.1 1012.4 100 SN 042BKN113 113OVC225 225OVC284 36 33 1.7 150 03/06 18Z 40 39 2 13 0.01 0.00 534 548 -6.1 -24.1 1017.5 100 -RA 034FEW050 147BKN225 225OVC287 40 32 2.7 156 03/07 00Z 39 36 351 9 0.00 0.00 535 552 -3.7 -24.2 1020.6 88 -RA 043BKN061 153FEW199 244BKN296 44 39 7.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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