Wow Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 At 156, most of NC getting slammed west of I-95. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Mainly a speed issue, though -- tracks are actually quite similar. Only 500-800 miles further west from the GFS. What's a few hundred miles among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Really good snow event in NC and upstate SC, of course much less in GA, maybe an inch with the upper low passage. Of course this will change again next run, the models have not come close to settling down yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 By 162, central and eastern NC getting a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 By 162, central and eastern NC getting a blizzard. Yep pretty stellar run. Very similar to the control run last night just not as much QPF over WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It's about to get ugly on DT's FB page -- at least for this run, Euro caves to GFS southern trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Any precip/850 details would be appreciated. Yep pretty stellar run. Very similar to the control run last night just not as much QPF over WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Anybody got surface temps and qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 There it is, fly the flag boys the euro moving towards the gfs solutions continues. Buckle up the could trend better for the western folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Anybody got surface temps and qpf? QPF range from 0.5" over western NC to an 1"+ east of Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Any precip/850 details would be appreciated. The initial wave it was too warm but temps crash pretty fast. I would think 2-4 for folks like you and I with 8 - 12 for Eastern NC. We'll have to wait for the snow map to come out but they didn't look bad to me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Blocking looked stronger early on, hope that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Mid Atlantic Weather A lot of HYPE about next week. Seems clear a storm, of some type, will affect the Lower and POSSIBLY, central Mid Atlantic States - I would caution folks from the Northern 1/3 of VA and North, that this may be nothing! South of that, there ***MAY** be some snow and where, when, who, and how much is just speculation based on models and some on the pattern which is favorable for a storm. Nothing is clear and no one should stick their necks out on this one. Probabilities - Storm? 60% chance |Wintry Weather? NC/VA/TN Mountains 50% chance |NC and VA Piedmont - 35% chance|Northern VA - 20% of some snow/rain as amounts would be low|Major/Historic system? NC - 15% |VA - 10%| ---- Will wait and see how things pan out - Will be doing a possibilities table soon on midatlanticweather.com for events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Several observations. I've seen better than 8 inches of snow in late March from ULL's in recent years, so as long as they cross to my south I don't worry about the hot ground, or the snow melting as it falls, for it can still pile up. And I know my last chance to see flakes iis always Masters weekend, no matter what any say... But.... I'm keenly aware of how hard it is to get moisture into Ga. even with this winters rain bounty, so I'd be concerned about getting ample moisture, if we don't get a phase with gulf energy. And, two, the cold seems to pull out very quick, so once again we are looking at warm ground, snow melting as it falls, and no re enforcing shot to keep it around...i.e. a few hours of slush. Unlike you I've seen snow and sleet this winter..for a few minutes... I was hoping for something more So...if you please, and if you have influence, which I believe you do, let's get the ULL to drop down around further south and west, and phase with the gulf low that needs to be there in a few days, lol, and stop all this maybe...almost.... and just do it, this time T I'm with GAWX on this one, we will be extremely lucky to see an inch or two from what I can see, of course the Carolinas or VA or TN will probably see much more. This really has to phase and close off much farther west, but not too far north or it is all rain- not holding my breath. It seems to be a much more delicate situation necessary for us to get heavy snow than for every state surrounding us except FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Several observations. I've seen better than 8 inches of snow in late March from ULL's in recent years, so as long as they cross to my south I don't worry about the hot ground, or the snow melting as it falls, for it can still pile up. And I know my last chance to see flakes iis always Masters weekend, no matter what any say... But.... I'm keenly aware of how hard it is to get moisture into Ga. even with this winters rain bounty, so I'd be concerned about getting ample moisture, if we don't get a phase with gulf energy. And, two, the cold seems to pull out very quick, so once again we are looking at warm ground, snow melting as it falls, and no re enforcing shot to keep it around...i.e. a few hours of slush. Unlike you I've seen snow and sleet this winter..for a few minutes... I was hoping for something more So...if you please, and if you have influence, which I believe you do, let's get the ULL to drop down around further south and west, and phase with the gulf low that needs to be there in a few days, lol, and stop all this maybe...almost.... and just do it, this time T I assume you're referring to 3/24/1983. I know you know the difference, but to clarify for the readers who don't know: that upper low had an attendant classic Miller A surface low and allowed just about all of the precip. to fall as snow and it also was a very moist system. This setup is totally different as it stands currently. Assuming the surface low never gets close to a Miller A track from the GOM, the upper limits would be nothing like that for 3/24/1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 So the euro has the storm arriving after lunch on Wednesday versus over night Tuesday? For the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 984mb? not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Any precip/850 details would be appreciated. Skip, after taking a closer look it appears just before the bulk of the precip we are probably in the mid 30's. and stay somewhere around there during the bulk of the precip (not bad!) 850's hover between 0 and -5 and then between -4 and -8 during the heart of the storm. So over all this is a great look for us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z Euro Text shows 0.53 QPF for TYS with surface temps barely above freezing throughout the event, 850s barely above at onset then crash negative. TRI: .45 CHA: .69 ATL: .79 Surface warms a bit as you go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Skip, after taking a closer look it appears just before the bulk of the precip we are probably in the mid 30's. and stay somewhere around there during the bulk of the precip (not bad!) 850's hover between 0 and -5 and then between -4 and -8 during the heart of the storm. So over all this is a great look for us IMO. Thanks for taking a closer look. With 850 like that it should be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Thanks -- I'll take it. BTW, DT's spin on this is hilarious -- says the Euro "held course." Skip, after taking a closer look it appears just before the bulk of the precip we are probably in the mid 30's. and stay somewhere around there during the bulk of the precip (not bad!) 850's hover between 0 and -5 and then between -4 and -8 during the heart of the storm. So over all this is a great look for us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z Euro Text shows 0.53 QPF for TYS with surface temps barely above freezing throughout the event, 850s barely above at onset then crash negative. TRI: .45 CHA: .69 ATL: .79 Surface warms a bit as you go south. I am surprised by this Stovepipe that the Euro gives KTRI .45. It sounded rather ho hum until it approached the southeast coast. It's a LOT to reach for in asking that it begin to bomb over the southeast (Georgia) vs. the coast I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Thanks -- I'll take it. BTW, DT's spin on this is hilarious -- says the Euro "held course." Also said NW, western, and central NC get hammered, when the map he posts shows cenrtral and EASTERN NC getting the hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Thanks -- I'll take it. BTW, DT's spin on this is hilarious -- says the Euro "held course." Just saw the soundings for the Euro for CLT. .69 in QPF which should be all snow. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Does it go out to sea afterwards or hug the coast, historic Noreaster thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Just saw the soundings for the Euro for CLT. .69 in QPF which should be all snow. Wow! And at the prog surface temp would cause lots of power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I assume you're referring to 3/24/1983. I know you know the difference, but to clarify for the readers who don't know: that upper low had an attendant classic Miller A surface low and allowed just about all of the precip. to fall as snow and it also was a very moist system. This setup is totally different as it stands currently. Assuming the surface low never gets close to a Miller A track from the GOM, the upper limits would be nothing like that for 3/24/1983. Oh, yeah, I do know... and you and Cheez are right as far as how it stands now....but...since things will change, and can change in any direction, I'd prefer to have a surface low in the gulf show up in a few days, and take all the guess work out of it Drop the ULL out west, and further south, have a nice phase with a mod/weak gulf low, and off we go, lol. Me...I'm still curious to see what comes this weekend. Plenty of time to worry about next week Sun and Mon..and won't have much of a clear picture until then anyway, lol. It's interesting to see how the weekend has changed as the time gets nearer. The only factor that has held for two weeks in the cold shot, though it is less sustained right now. I still have my .01, but the temps are far warmer when it falls, as of 0z. The temps fluctuate by 5 or 10 degrees almost from run to run, so what happens next week is any body's guess...and it could run the gamut T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Does it go out to sea afterwards or hug the coast, historic Noreaster thing? OTS like everything else.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 there is excellent agreement between the gfs/euro/ukmet it terms of the upper low track across the country. I think it’s safe to say we can throw away the CMC’s solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 there is excellent agreement between the gfs/euro/ukmet it terms of the upper low track across the country. I think it’s safe to say we can throw away the CMC’s solution. At 5-7 days out? I wouldn't be throwing away ANY model run just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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