burrel2 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 BL issues aren't as bad as people are making them out to be with this storm; at least in upstate SC. Soundings have the surface temp at 33 degree's in Greenville,SC at 1pm along with a solidly snow sounding, at which point they are getting the meat of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I thought the GFS 12Z phased this system toward the EURO AND sent it further south. It looked to me the GFS was a partial phase due to it being further south. The euro was more of a full phase which is the reason for the northern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 We have a really good chance over the next 6 days. With the cutoff sitting up there over new england and over the atlantic, this will slow the flow down so to speak and really amp up phasing opporutinites. No question there will be a slow moving cutoff system over the south next week. I like the position we're sitting in and that it's still suppressed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 We have a really good chance over the next 6 days. With the cutoff sitting up there over new england and over the atlantic, this will slow the flow down so to speak and really amp up phasing opporutinites. No question there will be a slow moving cutoff system over the south next week. I like the position we're sitting in and that it's still suppressed at this point. Thanks for posting, and I agree. I would be VERY excited if I were in NC, but even here just west of the apps I think we have a chance with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Talking about boundary issues with a phased event is just silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The clown I see does gives the Atlanta area ~1" averaged but with varying amounts. Some areas get less but ~2" just to the west. Even though this isn't a Miller A and it also is too warm ahead of it, strong upper lows that follow have been known to give ATL 1-2" in some cases. So, if something like this occurs and the track is just right, Atlanta might get a very nice event ...1" would be doable and ~2" would probably be the upper end if things go really well (assuming it never becomes a Miller A GOM surface low, of course). I still haven't seen a single flake or pellet in three years. So, just seeing some fall would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GSF ensembles look like the operational is about middle of the road. Some are north and some are further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Thanks for posting, and I agree. I would be VERY excited if I were in NC, but even here just west of the apps I think we have a chance with this one. Thanks. If you put the gfs in loop, you can see how it retrogrades the 50/50 low to the west. This happens sometimes, but it's very rare. Especially to the degree the gfs is showing. That in turn suppress this dramatically, especially the slp reflection. Knowing that, it's probably bogus this is dropping the vort all the way down and off of southern sc and the ga coastline. I've honestly never seen a polar vort behave like the gfs is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The clown I see does give the Atlanta area ~1" averaged but with varying amounts. Some areas get less but ~2" just to the west. Even though this isn't a Miller A and it also is too warm ahead of it, strong upper lows that follow have been known to give ATL 1-2" in some cases. So, if something like this occurs and the track is just right, Atlanta might get a very nice event ...1" would be doable and ~2" would probably be the upper end if things go really well (assuming it never becomes a Miller A GOM surface low, of course). I still haven't seen a single flake or pellet in three years. So, just seeing some fall would be nice. Considering we are the very end of winter and haven't seen a flake of snow in 2 years, ANYTHING is better than nothing. A nice 15 minute snow shower would at least bring me peace of mind until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT is cussing the 12z GFS is so bad. Won't post that here. Take FWIW, probably nothing IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT is cussing the 12z GFS is so bad. Won't post that here. Take FWIW, probably nothing IMO. I see you guys mention DT, who is this? and is he creditable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT is cussing the 12z GFS is so bad. Won't post that here. Take FWIW, probably nothing IMO. Too far south he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 James Spann just posted a map on facebook showing the GFS snow depth. Shows a dusting in Birmingham, then skips Atlanta, then more snow east of Atlanta. Looks like a repeat of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I see you guys mention DT, who is this? and is he creditable. Doing a quick Google search for DT and weather, it came up with this guy: https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 James Spann just posted a map on facebook showing the GFS snow depth. Shows a dusting in Birmingham, then skips Atlanta, then more snow east of Atlanta. Looks like a repeat of January. thats this weekend not next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT is cussing the 12z GFS is so bad. Won't post that here. Take FWIW, probably nothing IMO. Everyone knows the GFS sucks, no one needs reinforcement by DT to know that. Euro has always been king. Moving on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Ahhhh... The calm before Euro. The GFS had about an inch according to clown maps for us coastal folks, but I don't buy it yet. So what I'm hearing from all of this is: the more north the vort goes, the stronger the phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z Euro at 96 hours -- 500 mb low is over southeastern Wyoming, slightly west of 12z GFS position which was in extreme southwestern Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z Euro at Day 5 -- upper low appears to be moving much slower than prior Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This Euro is going to be different than both the previous run and the GFS, slower with less phasing at 120. Not surprising given the ensemble spread last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Everyone knows the GFS sucks, no one needs reinforcement by DT to know that. Euro has always been king. Moving on... It would be ironic and funny if the Euro came in very similar to the GFS to see DT's reaction to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 So slower, wetter, deeper, colder? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z Euro Day 5 --- definitely not diving as much as 12z GFS. At 120 hours, upper low over North Central Nebraska, which means it moved pretty much due east from Day 4 position. 12z GFS moved from SW Neb. to NE Oklahoma at Day 5. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 ULL over SE Missouri at 138, still digging SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Day 6 -- upper low over Ala./Tenn/Miss. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The clown I see does gives the Atlanta area ~1" averaged but with varying amounts. Some areas get less but ~2" just to the west. Even though this isn't a Miller A and it also is too warm ahead of it, strong upper lows that follow have been known to give ATL 1-2" in some cases. So, if something like this occurs and the track is just right, Atlanta might get a very nice event ...1" would be doable and ~2" would probably be the upper end if things go really well (assuming it never becomes a Miller A GOM surface low, of course). I still haven't seen a single flake or pellet in three years. So, just seeing some fall would be nice. Several observations. I've seen better than 8 inches of snow in late March from ULL's in recent years, so as long as they cross to my south I don't worry about the hot ground, or the snow melting as it falls, for it can still pile up. And I know my last chance to see flakes iis always Masters weekend, no matter what any say... But.... I'm keenly aware of how hard it is to get moisture into Ga. even with this winters rain bounty, so I'd be concerned about getting ample moisture, if we don't get a phase with gulf energy. And, two, the cold seems to pull out very quick, so once again we are looking at warm ground, snow melting as it falls, and no re enforcing shot to keep it around...i.e. a few hours of slush. Unlike you I've seen snow and sleet this winter..for a few minutes... I was hoping for something more So...if you please, and if you have influence, which I believe you do, let's get the ULL to drop down around further south and west, and phase with the gulf low that needs to be there in a few days, lol, and stop all this maybe...almost.... and just do it, this time T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 At 150 hrs, UL over N Ga. Sfc low off SC coast. Snow breaking out west of I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 ULL comes over GA at 150, actually quite like the GFS except 12-18 hours slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Day 6 -- upper low over Ala./Tenn/Miss. border. Only 500-800 miles further west from the GFS. What's a few hundred miles among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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