March Pattern and Discussion

[Brick Tamland]

The best scenerio would be for a stronger phase and to pull the low up the coast a litter further. Then everybody might get a piece of the pie.

 

More like the Euro. I am sure we'll see it go back and forth a lot between now and next Wednesday.

[packbacker]

In the old days this is where we would want the GFS and Euro at 5-6 days out...not sure it's the old days though.

[Cold Rain]

So all the moisture is from Atlanta to Columbia to Wilmington on the gfs? And the euro had it north of I40 into Virginia. Meet in the middle, eventually?

I hope so. I think like RDU said, the precip field should be more expansive with the solution shown.

[rduwx]

More like the Euro. I am sure we'll see it go back and forth a lot between now and next Wednesday.

The euro is more of a NC (40 north)/ Va. storm. I was trying to think of a way to get a chunk of the SE in the storm. Those type of storms are very rare but it could possibly be done w/ this storm. It would be awesome to have most of the posters here in the SE forum involved.

[packbacker]

UK way south, like GFS.

[Brick Tamland]

The euro is more of a NC (40 north)/ Va. storm. I was trying to think of a way to get a chunk of the SE in the storm. Those type of storms are very rare but it could possibly be done w/ this storm. It would be awesome to have most of the posters here in the SE forum involved.

 

I agree. I just know the trend is for the models to show these going south for a few runs before it brings it back more north.

[wake4est]

I agree. I just know the trend is for the models to show these going south for a few runs before it brings it back more north.

 

No.  It has happened a few times in the past 4 years like you describe, but it is by no means a trend or something that you should expect to happen this time. 

[SnowNiner]

Maps anyone?  Where's the precip falling on this run? 

[rduwx]

UK way south, like GFS.

Yeah it is....And I was just reading DT's post on FB about how the GFS was a joke and there is no way it's will be that far south. He might be right but I don't see how he can be so sure.

[beanskip]

I really learn a lot from his posts, but I wish he wouldnt' turn everything into such a Euro vs. GFS throwdown.

 

Can someone with access be more specific on the UK?

 

Yeah it is....And I was just reading DT's post on FB about how the GFS was a joke and there is no way it's will be that far south. He might be right but I don't see how he can be so sure.

[MotoWeatherman]

Yeah it is....And I was just reading DT's post on FB about how the GFS was a joke and there is no way it's will be that far south. He might be right but I don't see how he can be so sure.

The longer he can hang on to his audience the better.  Know what I mean?

[WeatherNC]

GFS still indicating indeterminate ptype at best, thickness does not crash until most of the precip is over in SC, was wondering why the snow map did not look so hot, think we found the reason, Florence gets over an inch of rain before changeover.

[beanskip]

Thanks for pointing that out. Even with the southernmost solution, BL issues are real. Ignoring them because it's "too far out" is really not a winning play.

GFS still indicating indeterminate ptype at best, thickness does not crash until most of the precip is over in SC, was wondering why the snow map did not look so hot, think we found the reason, Florence gets over an inch of rain before changeover.

[GaffneyPeach]

Yeah it is....And I was just reading DT's post on FB about how the GFS was a joke and there is no way it's will be that far south. He might be right but I don't see how he can be so sure.

I knew when he said the run was a "bad word" it had to be better. I also believe this could end up being a great storm for a lot more people than the Euro showed. Ehhh....who am I though?

*More people = us

[SnowNiner]

GFS still indicating indeterminate ptype at best, thickness does not crash until most of the precip is over in SC, was wondering why the snow map did not look so hot, think we found the reason, Florence gets over an inch of rain before changeover.

 

Yeah, saw the snow map.  Very little snow on that thing.  Temps are going to be a big issue for this storm.  I'm starting to envision mid January closed low.   Actually that's a pretty true to climo storm for March in the SE...a rain to snow slushfest. 

[beanskip]

Canadian not budging -- way, way, way, way north. At 120 hours, 5h low is over Minn. 12 GFS at same time has it over NE Oklahoma.

[tnweathernut]

UK way south, like GFS.

 

Anyone want to post or link the map? Such an unconventional track for a major system, but maybe the blocking will create the "exception" to the rule for us.  Blocking and closed lows FTW.

[Bevo]

Thanks for pointing that out. Even with the southernmost solution, BL issues are real. Ignoring them because it's "too far out" is really not a winning play.

 

For me, it isn't whether or not it's a "winning play" at this point.  Rather, it's a "let's just see if it even shows up 3 days out play".  BL temps are irrelevant if there's nothing for them to take issue with.  If it still shows up within 72 hours, then we may have a better understanding of the dynamics involved.  In my opinion, that's when the BL part of the equation has something to be weighed against.  Particularly during such a seasonal transition period. 

[MotoWeatherman]

I really learn a lot from his posts, but I wish he wouldnt' turn everything into such a Euro vs. GFS throwdown.

 

Can someone with access be more specific on the UK?

UKMET at 120 and 144.

 

Source:  http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en

 

[tnweathernut]

Canadian not budging -- way, way, way, way north. At 120 hours, 5h low is over Minn. 12 GFS at same time has it over NE Oklahoma.

 

I know the Canadian has had a recent upgrade, but can anyone comment on how well it does handling blocks in Canada?  If this is the key feature, it would be helpful to know if this solution has any merit.  I would think at the current moment it's completely on its own with regards to sending the energy into MN.

[beanskip]

Pretty sexy track. Nice to see something on board with GFS. Hopefully the Canadian is out to lunch. Hard to believe that much disparity in track, even 6 days out.

UKMET at 120 and 144.

[burgertime]

Thanks for pointing that out. Even with the southernmost solution, BL issues are real. Ignoring them because it's "too far out" is really not a winning play.

 

I still think it is a little pointless worrying about it right now due to the airmass. Of course if it keeps showing the low going right over us we stand less of a chance. Just seems again this time around we have cold air to play with which is step number one. 

[Southern Track]

I know the Canadian has had a recent upgrade, but can anyone comment on how well it does handling blocks in Canada? If this is the key feature, it would be helpful to know if this solution has any merit. I would think at the current moment it's completely on its own with regards to sending the energy into MN.

Someone mentioned the other day that even with the upgrade the Canadian is being outdone by Euro, GFS, and UKMET I believe.

[RevDodd]

FWIW it's a snow sounding at FAY at hour 144. If the precip shield can expand, eastern NC would blossom.

[Stovepipe]

Someone mentioned the other day that even with the upgrade the Canadian is being outdone by Euro, GFS, and UKMET I believe.

 

Yeah the verification scores were not that impressive relative to the other big models.

[WeatherNC]

Thanks for pointing that out. Even with the southernmost solution, BL issues are real. Ignoring them because it's "too far out" is really not a winning play.

Yep, there would have to be some mechanism to crash heights on the backside and speed up changeover, ie phasing.

I am already all in for this one, I know this may not be a winning hand but for many it will likely be our last game for another 9 months. If I am going to get burnt, rather it be in March then Dec or Jan.

This is really a double edged sword, we want it south, but colder. Afraid you are not going to have both, a colder and deeper scenario is likely going to involve some phasing which will lift the system north. More surpressed scenario would imply limited or no phasing, and a warmer output kinda like the GFS. If the Euro is right, VA gets crushed, if the GFS is right, SC gets a lot of RN. Don't think we will get both cold and precip, that potential in large part resides north of the NC boarder ATM, just my opinion.

[rduwx]

Pretty sexy track. Nice to see something on board with GFS. Hopefully the Canadian is out to lunch. Hard to believe that much disparity in track, even 6 days out.

Agree...I haven't seen the extended frames of the UK but it looks like it would climb the coast.

[RevDodd]

I am already all in for this one, I know this may not be a winning hand but for many it will likely be our last game for another 9 months. If I am going to get burnt, rather it be in March then Dec or Jan.

 

 

Yep: Might as well put all the tokens on the table. We can't save them for next year.

[SnowNiner]

Yep, there would have to be some mechanism to crash heights on the backside and speed up changeover, ie phasing.

I am already all in for this one, I know this may not be a winning hand but for many it will likely be our last game for another 9 months. If I am going to get burnt, rather it be in March then Dec or Jan.

This is really a double edged sword, we want it south, but colder. Afraid you are not going to have both, a colder and deeper scenario is likely going to involve some phasing which will lift the system north. More surprised scenario would imply limited or no phasing, and a warmer output kinda like the GFS. If the Euro is right, VA gets crushed, if the GFS is right, SC gets a lot of RN. Don't think we will get both cold and precip, that potential in late part resides north of the NC boarder ATM, just my opinion.

 

I thought the GFS 12Z phased this system toward the EURO AND sent it further south.

[Cold Rain]

Boundary layer temps:

There is an awful lot of hand-wringing about that at this point. Look at the synoptic set-up on the model right now and worry about BL later. You have a strengthening low to your south and a big arctic high to the north. They will work in tandem to draw in cold air. How much is a question, sure. But we finally *appear* to have a favorable track with a good cold air feed.

That could all change tomorrow, but the synoptics look favorable for snow even though the thermal profiles of the GFS may not. I know it's not the coldest time of year from a climo standpoint, but gosh, the setup looks fantastic. So I will be surprised if the models don't adjust colder as we move in, AS LONG AS the overall players don't change unfavorably. Give it time.