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March Pattern and Discussion


Bevo

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Hi all... I come to this site often in hopes for snow here in NC and pretend I understand the stuff, but really don't.

Anyhow, I saw on southernsavers.com a weather deal I thought I'd share. Don't know if it's good but, its for a free year at weather underground membership. The coupon code when you sign up is: QWV35. Hope some could enjoy.

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Sounds like from what Robert wrote, Eastern NC gets hammered.

 

Yeah it didn't sound like he focused too much on the CLT area.  Need that block to be stronger and for it to go into mid Georgia into SC for CLT to get in the game.  Even then, I worry about surface temps for accumulations.  Hopefully if it does come through, it'll come through at night. 

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I have to admit, the sfc temps have me worried.

 

Surface temps always have me worried; especially in March.  Hate to have a bunch of snow and none sticks.  May as well be rain.  Anyway, we need to hope at least for the EURO to come true because if it doesn't phase and go south, I don't think temps are going to be good enough.  We need the EURO to trend south and the GFS to trend phasey...

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Where is all the cold that was coming? Is that it that gets here Sat and Sun,and moves out before the big dog next Tue? I thought the block,-nao,and other things were locking in the cold?

You know how things work with cold and 6+ days in advance. Same thing could easily happen with the system next week. Can someone post the models that are showing the major snow?

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Surface temps always have me worried; especially in March.  Hate to have a bunch of snow and none sticks.  May as well be rain.  Anyway, we need to hope at least for the EURO to come true because if it doesn't phase and go south, I don't think temps are going to be good enough.  We need the EURO to trend south and the GFS to trend phasey...

 

I would worry about sfc temps when it gets here. The fact is 850's are cold enough for what is modeled...SFC temps usually follow. It's always a struggle but once it usually falls and falls hard sfc temps typically are not a problem. 

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If precip rates are hard, I'm not sure if BL temps will be much of a problem.

 

How deep is the warm layer of air progged to be?  Let's remember that the models had torching BL temperatures for many (I think it had Greenville, NC at 40F+ and they ended up with ~3" SN) with the mid-February system and that didn't cause much in the way of P-type issues (IIRC, the torching BL was quite thin).  It was bad for accumulations, especially since the rates and radar coverage were spotty, but in areas where the snow fell heavily and consistently, it accumulated even in the mid-30s during the mid-February afternoon.

 

It's too early to worry much at this point.  If we get the perfectly timed phase we want, I don't think BL issues will be a killer, though it's obviously more of a concern as you get into eastern NC than in the western half of the state.

 

Of course, let's worry about reeling this storm in first, ha.

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I agree it's a little early to worry w/ sfc temps but there has been many times over the years when I wasn't worried about 2m temps and that ended being a huge issue. Just 2 weeks ago. I had snow falling all day, and some of the time heavy snow, but zero accumulation because I never dropped below 34. If this system phases and gets wrapped up then we could have enough cooling to drop the sfc temps but imo that will be key. I don't want to sound argumentative here so I hope no one takes it that way. I'm hoping this works out for us.

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You know how things work with cold and 6+ days in advance. Same thing could easily happen with the system next week. Can someone post the models that are showing the major snow?

 

I think you've made a great point here.  Given the fact that the PAC has gremlin'd the model machines all winter, my opinion is that anything showing strongly - one way or another - is subject to what I affectionately call PAC adjustment.  How many times have the "right" indices been in place on the models, yet did not produce when the curtain opened?  

 

However, if it does materialize for you guys in eastern NC...you're welcome.

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