kwolfe904 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Hi all... I come to this site often in hopes for snow here in NC and pretend I understand the stuff, but really don't. Anyhow, I saw on southernsavers.com a weather deal I thought I'd share. Don't know if it's good but, its for a free year at weather underground membership. The coupon code when you sign up is: QWV35. Hope some could enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If a blend of the models is right and the storm is further South, then everyone gets in on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The Big L of Charlotte with No snow around it. Sounds like from what Robert wrote, Eastern NC gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It's nice to see the Euro and GFS both in agreement on a decent event for east TN next Wednesday. Looks like 3-5 inches in the valley looking at text output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Sounds like from what Robert wrote, Eastern NC gets hammered. Yeah it didn't sound like he focused too much on the CLT area. Need that block to be stronger and for it to go into mid Georgia into SC for CLT to get in the game. Even then, I worry about surface temps for accumulations. Hopefully if it does come through, it'll come through at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If a blend of the models is right and the storm is further South, then everyone gets in on the snow. Wouldn't be surprised to see it go further south the next few days and then back north right before zero hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Charlottewx (@N14_Charlottewx) tweeted at 9:19 AM on Thu, Feb 28, 2013: Looking down the road...MAY be snowy here for Wednesday AM commute... #cltwx #ncwx http://t.co/PyJSKnNjSp (https://twitter.com/N14_Charlottewx/status/307132816934703105) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 What is the arrival time of the Sat system.seems like arriving in the morning would help us all out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DGEX looks like the 0z GFS to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Yea AccuWx has 850's around -5 for the bulk of the precip in NC and further east just past RDU 850's are around 0. SFC temps of course are a disaster but I'll take my chances. I have to admit, the sfc temps have me worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I have to admit, the sfc temps have me worried. Surface temps always have me worried; especially in March. Hate to have a bunch of snow and none sticks. May as well be rain. Anyway, we need to hope at least for the EURO to come true because if it doesn't phase and go south, I don't think temps are going to be good enough. We need the EURO to trend south and the GFS to trend phasey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Where is all the cold that was coming? Is that it that gets here Sat and Sun,and moves out before the big dog next Tue? I thought the block,-nao,and other things were locking in the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Where is all the cold that was coming? Is that it that gets here Sat and Sun,and moves out before the big dog next Tue? I thought the block,-nao,and other things were locking in the cold? You know how things work with cold and 6+ days in advance. Same thing could easily happen with the system next week. Can someone post the models that are showing the major snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Even if it's not a huge storm, I would think that we'd get at least some snow with the way things are trending now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Even if it's not a huge storm, I would think that we'd get at least some snow with the way things are trending now. I disagree...Imo we still have a long ways to go w/ this one for our area. To many things that have to go just right for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Even if it's not a huge storm, I would think that we'd get at least some snow with the way things are trending now. If it's not a dynamic big system we will have BL issues and at that point who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Surface temps always have me worried; especially in March. Hate to have a bunch of snow and none sticks. May as well be rain. Anyway, we need to hope at least for the EURO to come true because if it doesn't phase and go south, I don't think temps are going to be good enough. We need the EURO to trend south and the GFS to trend phasey... I would worry about sfc temps when it gets here. The fact is 850's are cold enough for what is modeled...SFC temps usually follow. It's always a struggle but once it usually falls and falls hard sfc temps typically are not a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If precip rates are hard, I'm not sure if BL temps will be much of a problem. How deep is the warm layer of air progged to be? Let's remember that the models had torching BL temperatures for many (I think it had Greenville, NC at 40F+ and they ended up with ~3" SN) with the mid-February system and that didn't cause much in the way of P-type issues (IIRC, the torching BL was quite thin). It was bad for accumulations, especially since the rates and radar coverage were spotty, but in areas where the snow fell heavily and consistently, it accumulated even in the mid-30s during the mid-February afternoon. It's too early to worry much at this point. If we get the perfectly timed phase we want, I don't think BL issues will be a killer, though it's obviously more of a concern as you get into eastern NC than in the western half of the state. Of course, let's worry about reeling this storm in first, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Rates, surface temps, this winter have not been much of a problem if you are 1,000ft+. More worried about getting down-sloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I agree it's a little early to worry w/ sfc temps but there has been many times over the years when I wasn't worried about 2m temps and that ended being a huge issue. Just 2 weeks ago. I had snow falling all day, and some of the time heavy snow, but zero accumulation because I never dropped below 34. If this system phases and gets wrapped up then we could have enough cooling to drop the sfc temps but imo that will be key. I don't want to sound argumentative here so I hope no one takes it that way. I'm hoping this works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 You know how things work with cold and 6+ days in advance. Same thing could easily happen with the system next week. Can someone post the models that are showing the major snow? I think you've made a great point here. Given the fact that the PAC has gremlin'd the model machines all winter, my opinion is that anything showing strongly - one way or another - is subject to what I affectionately call PAC adjustment. How many times have the "right" indices been in place on the models, yet did not produce when the curtain opened? However, if it does materialize for you guys in eastern NC...you're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12Z is running anyone want to do the pbp honors when it gets there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'm watching the GFS. I've had a crazy work week and am loaded down today but I'm making time dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'm watching the GFS. I've had a crazy work week and am loaded down today but I'm making time dammit. As long as you have your priorities right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 As long as you have your priorities right. our weather!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Not good on the GFS, the energy that drops down into WA state is much weaker at hour 84 when compared to the 0z run of the GFS and Euro. Hopefully it strengthens back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well it did straighten back up by hour 96 it's two contour closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Not good on the GFS, the energy that drops down into WA state is much weaker at hour 84 when compared to the 0z run of the GFS and Euro. Hopefully it strengthens back up. Looking better at hr 96 and 99. 2 contour closed off at 96 and moving SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This is even further south than the 6z run, the norther energy over the lakes is weaker than the Euro but it's bulging SW and looks like it wants to phase with the southern piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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