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March Pattern and Discussion


Bevo

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the thing with you SE folks, i havent been here long enough to consider myself one yet....but you guys get one or two runs 6/7 days out and you get way too attached/emotional about it. your posting clown snow maps, worrying about R/S lines, say things like, "it will change, prob be nothing when next week gets here", and on and on...when you should be focusing on the fact that the pattern is becoming quite favorable and thats all you can ask for. some fine folks on here have said before, "we need the cold first for it to snow". well thats kind of the same deal here. I say, "we need the pattern first for it to snow". you cant just look at individual runs a week out and worry about qpf outputs in your backyard then jump off the bridge the next day when the qpf bullseye shifted from your driveway to 10 miles down the street.

 

 

Welcome and appreciate your input.  Everything you state here is correct, but unfortunately it just kind of comes with the territory the farther south you go in latitude.  We see so few model runs over the course of a winter that show an actual winter storm inside of a week, and even way less actual winter storms, that it becomes difficult to separate the moth from the flame when it occurs.

 

+1 on the welcome & input, please keep posting. Def a lot of moths in the SE sub forum. Winter weather in the SE is a roller coaster ride. High are very high and the lows are rock bottom. Up north if you miss.....oh well on to the next one. Down here if you miss.....it may be your only one. Def a lot of wisdom in your post that all of us could live by. Glad to have you as a part of the SE crew.

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Loooooooooooooooog way to go on this one. The fact that its probably the last chance for most of us this season will probably add to the gnashing of teeth over the next few days.

I think the last chance for everyone is the big dog lurking in the Pacific. This wave is shown to enter in southern California/baja. Strong blocking still showing up. Infact the blocking has gotten stronger on the last few runs. You can see the upper low runs into a wall once it enters the plains.
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The control run is a western nc special. Shows some love for ne tenn and the higher terrian in far northern ga.

 

Control run is an entire NC special. If that verified we would all be digging out. Just to elaborate it has pretty much an inch across the state falling as all snow. Hard to believe that would actually happen but sure is fun to look at. 

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Control run is an entire NC special. If that verified we would all be digging out. Just to elaborate it has pretty much an inch across the state falling as all snow. Hard to believe that would actually happen but sure is fun to look at.

It must be the different algorithms. Weatherbell snowmap keeps the snow confined to mainly the mtns. Maybe an inch or two in charlotte. Nothing east of you.

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Allan Huffman thinks there is still a chance for wintry weather this weekend, and of course next week.

 

 

There is a lot of uncertainty with the weekend. An anomalous pattern sets up across the US, a rather cold pattern for early march. The models are closing of a 500mb low over the Tennessee Valley by Saturday which often times can be the precursor to a significant storm off the southeast coast. However, the upper low is not particularly strong and the models are showing only light precipitation or the storm system being weak and far offshore. It would not be surprising to see the models bring this system closer to the coast and be stronger with time. If this system does take shape it could be a wintry weather threat. So stay tuned.

 

Another potential threat is around next Wednesday. The last two runs of the ECMWF model has shown the potential for accumulating snow across NC/VA/TN and perhaps SC. However, the track of this storm will be critical. Again there is some uncertainty with this as usual, but there is potential again, so stay tuned.

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/some-ice-the-west-this-morning-then-more-wintry-chances-ahead

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It must be the different algorithms. Weatherbell snowmap keeps the snow confined to mainly the mtns. Maybe an inch or two in charlotte. Nothing east of you.

 

Yea AccuWx has 850's around -5 for the bulk of the precip in NC and further east just past RDU 850's are around 0. SFC temps of course are a disaster but I'll take my chances. 

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I think our last chance could be next week. After that the look of spring starts to take over on the mods. I for one am ready.

 

But I think the mods are having a difficult time resolving that system. I really like the look of it and it fits climo for an early march cutoff.

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Allan Huffman thinks there is still a chance for wintry weather this weekend, and of course next week.

http://www.examiner.com/article/some-ice-the-west-this-morning-then-more-wintry-chances-ahead

That article is from the 26th, which is about the last time anything showed us having a shot at anything this weekend. Allan hasn't updated in two days, as far as I can tell.

Don't look at Robert's blog. Don't do it. Don't.

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That article is from the 26th, which is about the last time anything showed us having a shot at anything this weekend. Allan hasn't updated in two days, as far as I can tell.

Don't look at Robert's blog. Don't do it. Don't.

 

Why? Would it end up like the scene in Raiders of The Lost Ark when they opened the Ark?

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That article is from the 26th, which is about the last time anything showed us having a shot at anything this weekend. Allan hasn't updated in two days, as far as I can tell.

Don't look at Robert's blog. Don't do it. Don't.

 

 

That article is from the 26th, which is about the last time anything showed us having a shot at anything this weekend. Allan hasn't updated in two days, as far as I can tell.

Don't look at Robert's blog. Don't do it. Don't.

Robert contacted me first thing this morning I will pm you and tell you

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