downeastnc Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 NC is 550 miles east/west. That's the distance between Greensboro and Hartford, CN. A full state snow is rare. Mar 1-2 1980 is the best I have seen as far as totals for the entire state, almost everywhere east of Raleigh did better than a foot and from the foothills to Raleigh averaged 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 6z gfs is very far south. At 138 out upper low has dug to north/central Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the thing with you SE folks, i havent been here long enough to consider myself one yet....but you guys get one or two runs 6/7 days out and you get way too attached/emotional about it. your posting clown snow maps, worrying about R/S lines, say things like, "it will change, prob be nothing when next week gets here", and on and on...when you should be focusing on the fact that the pattern is becoming quite favorable and thats all you can ask for. some fine folks on here have said before, "we need the cold first for it to snow". well thats kind of the same deal here. I say, "we need the pattern first for it to snow". you cant just look at individual runs a week out and worry about qpf outputs in your backyard then jump off the bridge the next day when the qpf bullseye shifted from your driveway to 10 miles down the street. Welcome and appreciate your input. Everything you state here is correct, but unfortunately it just kind of comes with the territory the farther south you go in latitude. We see so few model runs over the course of a winter that show an actual winter storm inside of a week, and even way less actual winter storms, that it becomes difficult to separate the moth from the flame when it occurs. +1 on the welcome & input, please keep posting. Def a lot of moths in the SE sub forum. Winter weather in the SE is a roller coaster ride. High are very high and the lows are rock bottom. Up north if you miss.....oh well on to the next one. Down here if you miss.....it may be your only one. Def a lot of wisdom in your post that all of us could live by. Glad to have you as a part of the SE crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The cmc ensembles are much farther south than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Loooooooooooooooog way to go on this one. The fact that its probably the last chance for most of us this season will probably add to the gnashing of teeth over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Loooooooooooooooog way to go on this one. The fact that its probably the last chance for most of us this season will probably add to the gnashing of teeth over the next few days.I think the last chance for everyone is the big dog lurking in the Pacific. This wave is shown to enter in southern California/baja. Strong blocking still showing up. Infact the blocking has gotten stronger on the last few runs. You can see the upper low runs into a wall once it enters the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 NAVGEM had a SLP over Augusta GA on day 6. I believe the NAVGEM is the new and improved NoGaps replacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 NAVGEM had a SLP over Augusta GA on day 6. I believe the NAVGEM is the new and improved NoGaps replacement.same place as the euro ensemble mean at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The control run is a western nc special. Shows some love for ne tenn and the higher terrian in far northern ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 same place as the euro ensemble mean at 144 hours. Good catch, more importantly the NAVGEM does have the 2nd piece of energy that is phasing with the southern energy, it's phasing later than Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The control run is a western nc special. Shows some love for ne tenn and the higher terrian in far northern ga. I wasn't going to say anything as its a major weenie run for the bulk of NC and it sucks to be in the bullseye at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Good catch, more importantly the NAVGEM does have the 2nd piece of energy that is phasing with the southern energy, it's phasing later than Euro.if the confluence over new England continues to hold I could see this dropping a little farther southwest like the 6z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 if the confluence over new England continues to hold I could see this dropping a little farther southwest like the 6z gfs. Yep, or if it weakens we are screwed. The piece of energy doesn't even enter the US until Sunday afternoon, which is an eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The control run is a western nc special. Shows some love for ne tenn and the higher terrian in far northern ga. Control run is an entire NC special. If that verified we would all be digging out. Just to elaborate it has pretty much an inch across the state falling as all snow. Hard to believe that would actually happen but sure is fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Control run is an entire NC special. If that verified we would all be digging out. Just to elaborate it has pretty much an inch across the state falling as all snow. Hard to believe that would actually happen but sure is fun to look at. It must be the different algorithms. Weatherbell snowmap keeps the snow confined to mainly the mtns. Maybe an inch or two in charlotte. Nothing east of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 March 1980 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Allan Huffman thinks there is still a chance for wintry weather this weekend, and of course next week. There is a lot of uncertainty with the weekend. An anomalous pattern sets up across the US, a rather cold pattern for early march. The models are closing of a 500mb low over the Tennessee Valley by Saturday which often times can be the precursor to a significant storm off the southeast coast. However, the upper low is not particularly strong and the models are showing only light precipitation or the storm system being weak and far offshore. It would not be surprising to see the models bring this system closer to the coast and be stronger with time. If this system does take shape it could be a wintry weather threat. So stay tuned. Another potential threat is around next Wednesday. The last two runs of the ECMWF model has shown the potential for accumulating snow across NC/VA/TN and perhaps SC. However, the track of this storm will be critical. Again there is some uncertainty with this as usual, but there is potential again, so stay tuned. http://www.examiner.com/article/some-ice-the-west-this-morning-then-more-wintry-chances-ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I guess the main point to take away is its another run that moved farther southwest with the digging s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Allan Huffman thinks there is still a chance for wintry waether this weekend, and of course next week. http://www.examiner.com/article/some-ice-the-west-this-morning-then-more-wintry-chances-ahead You do understand that he is just talking potential and its not hype? Or if it does not pan out will yoy get mad and throw things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It must be the different algorithms. Weatherbell snowmap keeps the snow confined to mainly the mtns. Maybe an inch or two in charlotte. Nothing east of you. Yea AccuWx has 850's around -5 for the bulk of the precip in NC and further east just past RDU 850's are around 0. SFC temps of course are a disaster but I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I think our last chance could be next week. After that the look of spring starts to take over on the mods. I for one am ready. But I think the mods are having a difficult time resolving that system. I really like the look of it and it fits climo for an early march cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 You do understand that he is just talking potential and its not hype? Or if it does not pan out will yoy get mad and throw things? Yes, and he is not hyping it up. It's all about the delivery. But I still might get mad and throw things if we don't get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Allan Huffman thinks there is still a chance for wintry weather this weekend, and of course next week. http://www.examiner.com/article/some-ice-the-west-this-morning-then-more-wintry-chances-ahead That article is from the 26th, which is about the last time anything showed us having a shot at anything this weekend. Allan hasn't updated in two days, as far as I can tell. Don't look at Robert's blog. Don't do it. Don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 That article is from the 26th, which is about the last time anything showed us having a shot at anything this weekend. Allan hasn't updated in two days, as far as I can tell. Don't look at Robert's blog. Don't do it. Don't. tease! What is he saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 tease! What is he saying? Ask Wilkes. JK! It's on his facebook page too. But he mentions words like blizzard, significant, snow...stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 That article is from the 26th, which is about the last time anything showed us having a shot at anything this weekend. Allan hasn't updated in two days, as far as I can tell. Don't look at Robert's blog. Don't do it. Don't. Why? Would it end up like the scene in Raiders of The Lost Ark when they opened the Ark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Ask Wilkes. JK! It's on his facebook page too. But he mentions words like blizzard, significant, snow...stuff like that. That's the difference in delivery I was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 That article is from the 26th, which is about the last time anything showed us having a shot at anything this weekend. Allan hasn't updated in two days, as far as I can tell. Don't look at Robert's blog. Don't do it. Don't. That article is from the 26th, which is about the last time anything showed us having a shot at anything this weekend. Allan hasn't updated in two days, as far as I can tell. Don't look at Robert's blog. Don't do it. Don't. Robert contacted me first thing this morning I will pm you and tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Ok Brick, here you go! https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Ok Brick, here you go! https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth The Big L of Charlotte with No snow around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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