Bevo Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Alright - first time starting a new thread. We'll know soon enough if it's bad juju or good mojo. Leave the bollocks at the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I am sure you will bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Alright - first time starting a new thread. We'll know soon enough if it's bad juju or good mojo. Leave the bollocks at the door.lots of snow in my forecast so you are good. The double blocking continues to show up on the ensembles. And the euro ensembles are cold out to day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Alright - first time starting a new thread. We'll know soon enough if it's bad juju or good mojo. Leave the bollocks at the door. [/quote I like it, I am all in now for the March 6 event. The ENS have a strong signal for a storm, we need the strong blocking to hold and some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Alright - first time starting a new thread. We'll know soon enough if it's bad juju or good mojo. Leave the bollocks at the door. [/quoteStronger storm this weekend creating more confluence over the northeast. I like it, I am all in now for the March 6 event. The ENS have a strong signal for a storm, we need the strong blocking to hold and some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I'll take what the Euro is showing for 3/6 if it shifts south into NC. The problem is the models are have some wild mood swings lately, so it's really hard to believe anything they show now outside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The Euro wasn't far off for NC/TN and the Ensemble Mean was likely a snowstorm (24-hour panels, though). I still think we might be in business, though things are up in the air. If we don't get some dramatic trends today, it's time to punt the weekend potential, though, IMO (aside from some scattered flizzards). I just took a look at the 06z GFS and it literally shows no precip whatsoever from the 3/6 system for central NC. Not one drop of rain. Not one flake of snow. Nada. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well done, Bevo. I tripped over some bullocks at the door and then saw that Brick was in here. So far so good. JK Brick It is hard to believe that such a deep and energetic trough with all the right teleconnections in place this weekend won't produce something for someone. I think we see QPF ramp up over the next 24-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The Euro EPS Control has been showing a fantasy Miller A in the 300 hour range for a few runs in a row. Long shot I'm sure, but something to keep an eye on for the 2nd week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The Euro EPS Control has been showing a fantasy Miller A in the 300 hour range for a few runs in a row. Long shot I'm sure, but something to keep an eye on for the 2nd week of March.More Fishel cold on the way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Looking at the 0Z GFS for the March 6th storm, I'd like to go ahead and cash my chips in, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It is hard to believe that such a deep and energetic trough with all the right teleconnections in place this weekend won't produce something for someone. I think we see QPF ramp up over the next 24-48. I would agree with the precip ramping up over the next two days. In the past, the nam shows the strongest energy with a meager surface reflection only to trend wetter to match as the event approaches. By the way, the new 12z nam is digging the energy through the panhandles of OK and TX. It's stronger and further west with a slightly better axis than 6z in my opinion. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 12z nam is digging. This should be a good look for us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scsnowgirl Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 This is a quote on Facebook from Kendra Kent Chief Met at FoxCarolina in Greenville, SC..... "Still looks like a solid chance for snow this Saturday for the Upstate and NE GA. Light accumulations poss. Snow starts in mtns. tonight!" She keeps my hopes alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It's probably going to just cut east like previous runs. Nammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well done, Bevo. I tripped over some bullocks at the door and then saw that Brick was in here. So far so good. JK Brick It is hard to believe that such a deep and energetic trough with all the right teleconnections in place this weekend won't produce something for someone. I think we see QPF ramp up over the next 24-48. So you think the models are not matching up well with the meterology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 12z nam is digging. This should be a good look for us, right? If that votex was not in the NE..yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 So you think the models are not matching up well with the meterology? A better question is, are the models accurately depicting the atmosphere 4 days out? The answer is likely (and usually) not. There IS enough energy to squeeze some precip out of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 If that votex was not in the NE..yes. Thanks for the analysis. It looks like the vortex might me a tough weaker on this run compared to the last, but it is not moving out. I thought that there appeared to be slightly more ridging off the east coast that could help. By hr 84 there's a closed off piece over NC with no precip at the surface. Not sure about this look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Thanks for the analysis. It looks like the vortex might me a tough weaker on this run compared to the last, but it is not moving out. I thought that there appeared to be slightly more ridging off the east coast that could help. By hr 84 there's a closed off piece over NC with no precip at the surface. Not sure about this look? That vortex is too sprawled out from PA all the way out into the Atlantic. It kills any opportunity for any ridge to develop ahead of our shortwave which keeps the trough positive tilt. Also that vortex can't move north because the block is in full force in southern greenland as you can see it nosing in from the east. Really for anything much to happen we need that 500mb low to close off around the MS/LA/AR border and then slide east. Or we need that PV in the NE to get out of the way. Neither scenario looks likely at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Posts like this are really, really, really helpful and informative. Please do this more. That vortex is too sprawled out from PA all the way out into the Atlantic. It kills any opportunity for any ridge to develop ahead of our shortwave which keeps the trough positive tilt. Also that vortex can't move north because the block is in full force in southern greenland as you can see it nosing in from the east. nam_namer_075_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Also, as a follow up, if we were to throw in the towel on the weekend system and put all our eggs in the March 5-6 threat, what would be rooting for re: upper features, etc.? Posts like this are really, really, really helpful and informative. Please do this more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 On the main board donsutherland has some good reading about the analogs going in to mid March. He thinks the blocks may hold for a while and help keep it cold through March 20. The GFS Ensembles show quite alot of blockiness as well and seem to meet his analogs. However it doesn't look to me to be a very amplified pattern. It looks very zonal and non-stormy. I could be wrong on that, but the telleconnections for the PNA, NAO, and AO seem to want to go back to neutral around the March 10-15 timeframe (PNA goes back negative). Thus right now I see us as just cold then cool and dry to mid March. Throwing that out for discussion, but that's kind of what I see from a lehman's point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 New GFS looks stronger with the NE vortex and less diggy with the SWs in the trough back to the west at 48....comparing to the 0Z run. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Looking at the 12z GFS, while the energy is diving further southwest at 45 hours -- into old Mexico -- I'm not sure that is really doing us any good. All it does is -- it seems to me -- keeping the positive tile orientation of the trough strong. The bad news -- per moto's excellent analysis -- is that the blocking ridge is nosing down further from the NE over the maritimes. My ill-informed prediction is that this run will not get us where we need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Looking pretty ugly at 57 hours -- flat, pos. tilted trough. NE vortex is even more sprawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The trough looks a lot better to me on this run. Not neary the positive tilt as previous runs. I'm not sure it'll do us any good but we'll soon see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Looking at the 12z GFS, while the energy is diving further southwest at 45 hours -- into old Mexico -- I'm not sure that is really doing us any good. All it does is -- it seems to me -- keeping the positive tile orientation of the trough strong. The bad news -- per moto's excellent analysis -- is that the blocking ridge is nosing down further from the NE over the maritimes. My ill-informed prediction is that this run will not get us where we need to be. That darn blocking there...won't let the vortex get out the way. But if it wasn't there it'd be a lakes cutter. Can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The trough looks a lot better to me on this run. Not neary the positive tilt as previous runs. I'm not sure it'll do us any good but we'll soon see. Agreed, the vort did close but opened back up fairly quickly, this should produce some light snow in NC/SC, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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