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February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 4


wisconsinwx

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Snow and Sleet really battling it out right now. Just when it looks like one is winning, the other makes a comeback. I am surprised how far inland some of the mixing has penetrated though. Guelph looked like it was going to be completely immune from all this. Goes to show you how delicate these setups are.

 

Yep, certainly didnt expect mixing up here. Maybe that warm air layer on the NAM had something to it after all! Latest obs still showing us below freezing (-0.7) at the surface, yet almost all rain coming down.

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Yep, certainly didnt expect mixing up here. Maybe that warm air layer on the NAM had something to it after all! Latest obs still showing us below freezing (-0.7) at the surface, yet almost all rain coming down.

 

Maybe. I threw it under the bus when it first showed up and it lost it on its 12 and 18z runs but maybe there was something to it. Per SPC mesoanalysis, 925 and 850 mb temps are below freezing, so it maybe a layer of warmth even further up in the atmosphere.

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Snow and Sleet really battling it out right now. Just when it looks like one is winning, the other makes a comeback. I am surprised how far inland some of the mixing has penetrated though. Guelph looked like it was going to be completely immune from all this. Goes to show you how delicate these setups are.

 

Snow has changed to plain rain by the lakeshore in downtown Toronto.

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It's about warmth aloft, not at the surface.

 

As we've seen tonight. heh.

 

Update on dual pol...shows mixing...pl...rain or all of the above from Hamilton to Guelph to Mississauga moving north...shows snow starting to make its way back into Hamilton,

EDIT: just as I typed that switched back to snow...dual pol showed it perfectly attachicon.gif

 

Thanks for the dual pol updates Dave. Just switching back to snow here now as well.

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Wow.  Even after today's 4.2" we're under 10" lol.

 

 

Wow! You've really done well didn't realize you picked up that much. I use the Co-op West Racine data as my reference and they have 18.9".

 

Just add 10.4" to that table below and that tells the story!

 

 

But yeah quite a gradient to my south and west.

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How about for northeast Scarborough? Am I going to get into the rain too?

Hard to say...looks like d.t Toronto is probably in a mix..I would imagine you will start mixing with ice pellets. As for a change over to complete rain? Maybe....probably not I would imagine as you are pretty far from the lake...farthest you will go is probably a mix.

Also if Guelph toward Halton hills haven't gone all snow yet...they will very soon.

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Hard to say...looks like d.t Toronto is probably in a mix..I would imagine you will start mixing with ice pellets. As for a change over to complete rain? Maybe....probably not I would imagine as you are pretty far from the lake...farthest you will go is probably a mix.

Thanks. Sounding like a stuck record, but it is absolutely ripping snow out there. Weight of the snow is really putting pressure on some of the trees.

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Don't want to muck up the thread for those on the wintry side of things, but LAF finished with 1.31" of rainfall.

Still 36 at my place right now with drizzle and fog.

Good luck to the Ontario contingent. Sounds like it may be touch and go for awhile. All the best of luck.

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Probably one of my best snow forecasts. Last night myself and a few others thought it would be fun to predict snowfall totals with the "main snow" at ORD/MDW/DVN/RFD. I went with ORD 4.3" MDW 2.8" DVN 4.0" RFD 3.4"...totals ended up being ORD 4.2" MDW 2.8" DVN 4.2" RFD 3.9". One of my favorite systems I've followed given the tough forecast with marginal thermals but dynamics were able to overcome them.

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Don't want to muck up the thread for those on the wintry side of things, but LAF finished with 1.31" of rainfall.

Still 36 at my place right now with drizzle and fog.

Good luck to the Ontario contingent. Sounds like it may be touch and go for awhile. All the best of luck.

3 degree spread between you and the airport...

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