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March Banter Thread


Isopycnic

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I find your lack of faith in TRI getting nailed disturbing.  :P

 

Also, I'm in the market for a used 4x4 pickup.  Next season I'm all in for some chasing in the mountains!

 

I've chased up in the mountains during many a snow storms using my front wheel drive camry... keep it in Low, does just fine as long as the tires are new.

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He must be pretty serious about it too, check this crap out, with graphics and all...

 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/about-march-1-3-1980/493660810681182

 

 

I actually remember this storm.  I was 11 years old at the time and living here in Cary.  I also read a write-up on this storm a couple of years ago.  I think Allan posted it at some time.  I'll see if I can find it.

 

Edit:  Here it is...It's a good read for those that don't know much about the storm.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19800301/19800301.php

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I actually remember this storm.  I was 11 years old at the time and living here in Cary.  I also read a write-up on this storm a couple of years ago.  I think Allan posted it at some time and remember it talking about how cold it got in the height of the storm.  I'll see if I can find it.

 

Edit:  Here it is...It's a good read for those that don't know much about the storm.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19800301/19800301.php

 

Here are the case studies Allan did, thanks for sharing that link, I have not read that one but am about to.  A couple things strike me as major differences.  For one, the jet setup looks different, while I don't have access to the euro's h3-h2 maps, the GFS jet structure is pretty weak and lackluster at those levels compared to 80.  Another thing, the trough axis even on the ec is positve, whereas 80 was a hard right at the perfect time.  Factor in the difference in high pressure strength coming down through the Plains, close to 1050 back then, maybe 1036 this go around, and ridge axis a good bit east up through the Plains, compared to a more classic PNA and cross polar flow, yeah, the differences far outweigh the sims in my opinion.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/southeast.html

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Here are the case studies Allan did, thanks for sharing that link, I have not read that one but am about to.  A couple things strike me as major differences.  For one, the jet setup looks different, while I don't have access to the euro's h3-h2 maps, the GFS jet structure is pretty weak and lackluster at those levels compared to 80.  Another thing, the trough axis even on the ec is positve, whereas 80 was a hard right at the perfect time.  Factor in the difference in high pressure strength coming down through the Plains, close to 1050 back then, maybe 1036 this go around, and ridge axis a good bit east up through the Plains, compared to a more classic PNA and cross polar flow, yeah, the differences far outweigh the sims in my opinion.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/southeast.html

 

Thanks for the post...I remember reading this one as well.  As a matter of fact that is the case study that I remember seeing the cold temps.  I agree, there are some differences but the major one I see that you mentioned is the positive tilt.  If we could get this to go negative we could really have a storm.  I believe the phase is the wild card in this storm that could give us the explosion of moisture.

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I don't know if this is good mojo or not...

I have an important, full day meeting on the 6th and I will be traveling from Raleigh,NC to Lake Mattamuskeet at Swanquarter, NC, then back to Raleigh in the late afternoon/early evening.

I'm counting on you guys to keep me informed on the evolving weather for that day. :thumbsup:

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If I'm in NYC when Raleigh gets 10-20" I'm going to go ape ****.

 

I am rooting for a mega bomb, I am scheduled to be in DC/Herndon next week, if it looks like RDU is going to get hit I am staying put, if it looks like Herndon/DC get hit I am heading north for my meetings.

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The laughs provided here today have totally cleansed my stressed mind. Weather should always be this much fun. I will make a point to avoid the site next wednesday during the height of the 38 and heavy rain. I saw more grauple today than i will see in snow next week. Long way from model consensus! Long way to wednesday.

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Well it was due by email at midnight tonight but will just finish it tomorrow I am tired don't have that class till Thursday anyway then I go on Spring Break.

 

 

 

 

1) I am looking at a light snow event that will trend in favor for SC/NC outside of the mountains later this week. Exact location/amounts TBD.

2) March 6th is beyond the 7 day forecast would predict at this time it is nothing major...likely moisture starved or something else to be wrong with it for some. Possibly nothing. 

3) Much colder than last March heck yes but I do not see a super duper wintry mega pattern...more like 1 perhaps 2 winter weather events likely to be marginal for some with screws for others.

 

 

#WinterIsOver4Me

 

 

I will have preliminary maps out after 0z tonight.

 

lol wut?

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To late, RDU hasn't seen measurable snow in years, we are all in on this, we will be going down with the ship on this one.

I can't quite remember the proper analog for Raleigh and snow. It's something about a camel and the eye of a needle.

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