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March Banter Thread

Isopycnic

By Isopycnic,
in Southeastern States

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

For everyone that keeps wondering " where are all the gulf lows" we need a nino. If we don't have a dominant southern stream we are left with energy dropping out of the northern branch. Those 99 times out of 100 don't work out well for us. You need peefect timing and an almost perfect pattern. In nino years storms enter the conus usually thru southern California or the baja. And come into the country at a lower latitude than ours.

 

What about 09-10?  Wasn't that a Nina?  I think we had some nice gulf lows that gave the SE some above average snowfall because of the strong blocking and -NAO (average for CLT). 

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

The only difference I see between the pessimists and irrational exuberance folks is their verification scores. I see what you're saying, but you should also realize that there are some of us who view the constant promoting of events 7 to 10 days out in the same way. We just roll(our eyes) and scroll.  

 

Who is being irrationally exuberant, honestly?  Is mentioning that the Euro Control has shown a 7 day away Miller A for several runs in a row over the line?  It's one thing to pass along some data from a model.  It's a completely different thing to post this drivel over and over and over and .......

 

 

---

If it's not one thing it's another. It seems it doesn't matter anymore how great the pattern is. There always seems to be something to mess it up and not produce anything.

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Yeah, I am starting to wonder why this was supposed to be such a great pattern and was getting all the hype.

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It seems feast or famine is the new normal. One extreme or another.

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No, this one has to be right for sure! At least I can dream it is.

---

Well, with the way the winter has been the last two years, this solution makes as much sense as any.

---

 

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Yeah add retrograding flow to that too.

So we've had this winter...

-NAO...check.

+PNA....check.

-SSW....check.

-AO (3 months in a row or whatever).....check.

-EPO.....check.

-MJO rounded phase 8-3.....check.

-Strong -NAO check.

--NAO/+PNA combo together......check.

-Retrograding flow....check.

-Dual blocking....check.

=====NO snowstorm.

I'm starting to think the SE is just not going to get any significant snow anymore. Rant over, I'm moving on.

You are missing tons and tons of other things.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39421-listing-pastpresent-winter-weather-indicators/page-2#entry2149825

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Bevo

Bevo

Posted
Posted

Lol 2009-10 was a strong el nino. You are thinking of 2010-11 winter which was a strong la nina.

 

The winters of 2010 and 2011 were both in NINA's - fact.

 

Edit - I think we are saying the same thing now that I look at your post again.  The Christmas storm of 2010 and the January storm of 2011 are what I'm refering to.  Same winter. La Nina. Yes...we are saying the same thing.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

The only difference I see between the pessimists and irrational exuberance folks is their verification scores. I see what you're saying, but you should also realize that there are some of us who view the constant promoting of events 7 to 10 days out in the same way. We just roll(our eyes) and scroll.  

 

I have no problem with a pessimist who gives reason for his pessimism.  I do have a problem with constant posts about how "Winter will never be same again," "What does it take to get a gulf low anymore?," (The first time was fine, the 10th is crazy.) "Just bring on summer because I don't even want snow anymore if I can't have in January."  That's the kind of stuff that I consider to be whining.

 

Oh, and who is irrationally exuberant?  I seriously cannot figure out who you would put in that camp right now.  I knew all your dog pics from the beginning, but I'm not on the same wave length with you on this one.

 

Who is being irrationally exuberant, honestly?  Is mentioning that the Euro Control has shown a 7 day away Miller A for several runs in a row over the line?  It's one thing to pass along some data from a model.  It's a completely different thing to post this drivel over and over and over and .......

 

The drivel you quoted from the other thread was exactly that to which I was referring.  Thanks for providing the examples for those who were unsure.

 

Since next week.

That's your best post all week, Brick.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

The winters of 2010 and 2011 were both in NINA's - fact.

Edit - I think we are saying the same thing now that I look at your post again. The Christmas storm of 2010 and the January storm of 2011 are what I'm refering to. Same winter. La Nina. Yes...we are saying the same thing.

Yeah thats weird how 2010-11 winter came out and the 2011-12 winter came out. Both la ninas but nothing alike.

What is this winter? Neutral right?

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Bevo

Bevo

Posted
Posted

Yeah thats weird how 2010-11 winter came out and the 2011-12 winter came out. Both la ninas but nothing alike.

What is this winter? Neutral right?

 

Even in the 2011/2012 winter, I had higher amounts of rain than one would expect in a La Nina.  Both years were odd balls in my opinion.

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NGaWxNerd

NGaWxNerd

Posted
Posted

My daughter is a sophomore in HS and has discovered a love for psychology. I am encouraging this because its more feasible than "Pastry Chef".  Perhaps a review of the last two winters of posting here in banter and pattern discussion can provide her a solid "A" paper of how weather effects behavior. Y'all are getting a little testy with each other in here today and I would like to advise deep breathing and mid week drinking as a cure.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Who is being irrationally exuberant, honestly?  Is mentioning that the Euro Control has shown a 7 day away Miller A for several runs in a row over the line?  It's one thing to pass along some data from a model.  It's a completely different thing to post this drivel over and over and over and .......

---

If it's not one thing it's another. It seems it doesn't matter anymore how great the pattern is. There always seems to be something to mess it up and not produce anything.

---

Yeah, I am starting to wonder why this was supposed to be such a great pattern and was getting all the hype.

---

It seems feast or famine is the new normal. One extreme or another.

---

 

 

I guess it depends on your viewpoint. The following were all posted on the same day about the "big" Valentine's Day storm. Posted 12 days out on 2/2.

Of course, that's the 300+ hour GFS, but it is fairly consistent in showing some sort of Gulf Low at that time period for the last three or four runs.

V Day storm right on cue on 12z gfs. Has some potential

TW

Edit - make that lots of potential. Thereafter as well.

Nice strong hp coming in over the n plains and upper midwest 12z gfs ensembles look great for the middle of the month That Valentine's Day Storm really excites me. The GFS has been pretty damn consistent with it for quite a few runs now.

12z GFS gives the western half of NC the Big Dog following the Valentine's Day Storm at hr 372.

Verbatim, it's probably a foot of snow here. Verbatim...

Count me in! For the storm and the menu, excellent choice. Wish I could see the Euro past 240. Does the GFS ever have something big from 300+ and then have it verify?The GFS has shown the same LP track (~200 miles) for the last eight runs or so.

Sweet! What are some ways to tell what kind of precip is going to come with it?

--

There was a time, not very long ago, where you would be laughed out of the forum for even posting a 12 day map.

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

I'm not trying to start a big argument. Just making a point. There will always be at least two sides to almost anything.

 

I agree, and just want to say that my earlier post was not referencing the optimists or pessimists but more the whiney-ists.  The first world problem silliness just gets old.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Yup -

 

metalicwx366, on 24 Feb 2013 - 10:51, said:snapback.png

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Floridians: dont be surprised, coldest air of winter season invades late week,with some snow into panhandle,if not further s #bybyspringbreak

This might be a fail.

 

Aiko aiko all day, jockomo feeno na na nay, jockomo feena nay.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Lol 2009-10 was a strong el nino. You are thinking of 2010-11 winter which was a strong la nina.

 

Right, 10-11.  Point being it was a nina and I thought we still had gulf storms. 

 

I'll be sure to keep that in mind next year though...if it ain't southern stream, it ain't gonna happen.  That seems like the ONLY thing we've been missing this winter and it's been huge.

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