Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yep, the 50/50 weakened a smidge and that's all it took. We are such tools, when was the last winter storm that didn't trend north some. Serenity now, serenity now, serenity now.... These pretzels are making me thirsty!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It should be a new rule that once you call a storm to be over, you can't post again until the event passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm hugging onto the euro for dear life for this storm. Don't fail me tonight at 0z, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Seriously? Don't p!ss me off tonight, about to settle in to a 6 of New Belgium which will likely decrease my inhibitions in revoking privileges. The six of Hogarten is on ice as we speak. I have a hunch this board will be full of Stella entertaiment tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I tried to warn people this was not looking like an NC event. For those in the Triangle this will be a tough way to go out after a miserable 2nd consecutive winter if it comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Since it is the 18Z GFS it will either show a totally suppressed solution or the biggest storm of all time. Either way it will be wrong. Hope this is the case. I just have a good feeling about this one. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. Won't hurt anything. Just means the winter will suck like last winter. If this is the case, I hope spring comes quick and we have some severe weather to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You know, I've been thinking about how to put some more teeth into the 5 posting penalty. After being 5 posted twice, the third strike should include a full winter season of being automatically put back into 5 post mode whenever storm mode is declared. It should also be part of the punishment of a second suspension. Once the label is on it is permanent until somebody remembers to remove it, trust me, I will not set a calender reminder. It would be nice to have a relationship drawn between storm mode and the post limited bunch, whenever the storm flag triggers posting privileges are revoked, but it does not work that way. The warn system in place uses automatic triggers based on each level obtained, which some fail to recognize and wonder why their privileges all of a sudden changed. It should be a new rule that once you call an storm to be over, you can't post until the event passes. I have researched this thoroughly and no restrictions exist where we can post cancel storm cancel posts until the storm is cancelled, or over. Also, taking it a step further, we are currently limited in revoking thread start permissions. I'm hugging onto the euro for dear life for this storm. Don't fail me tonight at 0z, baby! Your good, thanks for posting this in banter! All aboard the EC train, heaviest axis is through the southern 1/2th of VA, Roanoke to Richmond, book it, I am planning travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I tried to warn people this was not looking like an NC event. For those in the Triangle this will be a tough way to go out after a miserable 2nd consecutive winter if it comes to pass. You indeed did. Some decided to listen to the other met who said the axis of heaviest snow would be in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You indeed did. Some decided to listen to the other met who said the axis of heaviest snow would be in NC. At least he tried to give a reason why he said that. I don't really have a scientific reason why I think it will come back south other than the block is there and at first the models were going even farther south, and then they started going even farther north and it would turn around to in the middle. Funny thing is when the models were going farther south yesterday, some of the same folks saying it was going to go north now didn't say anything about that then. They just started saying it when the models flipped. Not sure why it is OK to believe it one way but not the other. I think it is just being negative and hugging the models, which I have been told is silly to do even this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 These pretzels are making me thirsty!! No, no. It's "THESE pretzels are MAKING me THIRSTY". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At least he tried to give a reason why he said that. I don't really have a scientific reason why I think it will come back south other than the block is there and at first the models were going even farther south, and then they started going even farther north and it would turn around to in the middle. Well if you notice, many mets have been screaming blizzard and historic winter storm all winter for every storm. Just imagine if they were right on all their forecasts. We could be living in historical times man. This is why I would never pay to subscribe to someone. Weather has a mind of its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 No, no. It's "THESE pretzels are MAKING me THIRSTY". No, it's, These PRETZELS are making ME thirsty. Come on man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At least he tried to give a reason why he said that. I don't really have a scientific reason why I think it will come back south other than the block is there and at first the models were going even farther south, and then they started going even farther north and it would turn around to in the middle. Funny thing is when the models were going farther south yesterday, some of the same folks saying it was going to go north now didn't say anything about that then. They just started saying it when the models flipped. Not sure why it is OK to believe it one way but not the other. I think it is just being negative and hugging the models, which I have been told is silly to do even this far out. I don't have any scientific evidence, but from experience, storms have an easier time going north as you close in than south. That's why I'm always much more interested in a suppressed system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yesterday the trends were going more and more south. Today they are going north. Not sure why today would be right versus yesterday. It might be, but I guess I don't understand how some are so certain at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At least he tried to give a reason why he said that. I don't really have a scientific reason why I think it will come back south other than the block is there and at first the models were going even farther south, and then they started going even farther north and it would turn around to in the middle. Funny thing is when the models were going farther south yesterday, some of the same folks saying it was going to go north now didn't say anything about that then. They just started saying it when the models flipped. Not sure why it is OK to believe it one way but not the other. I think it is just being negative and hugging the models, which I have been told is silly to do even this far out.Yes it would make sense that stronger blocking. would force the storm more southward.I don't get what people as model hugging. Everyone looks at each run and wants to know what outcome it shows annd some get excited if it shows what they want and sad when another run doesn't. Is that would model hugging would be defined as? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't have any scientific evidence, but from experience, storms have an easier time going north as you close in than south. That's why I'm always much more interested in a suppressed system.what if we moved to the north pole. Would we still have to worry about storms trending north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yes it would make sense that stronger blocking. would force the storm more southward. I don't get what people as model hugging. Everyone looks at each run and wants to know what outcome it shows annd some get excited if it shows what they want and sad when another run doesn't. Is that would model hugging would be defined as? im tossing today's 18z run and hugging yesterday's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yes it would make sense that stronger blocking. would force the storm more southward. I don't get what people as model hugging. Everyone looks at each run and wants to know what outcome it shows annd some get excited if it shows what they want and sad when another run doesn't. Is that would model hugging would be defined as? Model hugging is when you see that these mets are not saying 1 word about the 18z GFS. Look at DT etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yesterday the trends were going more and more south. Today they are going north. Not sure why today would be right versus yesterday. It might be, but I guess I don't understand how some are so certain at this time.the only model that went north today was the gfs. Every other model has held serve or went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It is exciting at least to have something very difficult to predict at the end of the usual winter season. this is meant to be banter : ) ... it only sounds half-technical to try and outline the ideas. There has been this specific organized shape appearing in the water vapor images for the American continent since before the January bowling ball: sort of a giant upside down T with edges curling in opposite directions. There has been a persistent dry air sink with enormous moist air swath underneath, in the SE North Pacific, that has been attached to whatever ULL or sometimes multiple ULLs are in the NW North Atlantic. Is this a common pattern with any official name(s)? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You indeed did. Some decided to listen to the other met who said the axis of heaviest snow would be in NC.don't take away my thunder flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well if you notice, many mets have been screaming blizzard and historic winter storm all winter for every storm. Just imagine if they were right on all their forecasts. We could be living in historical times man. This is why I would never pay to subscribe to someone. Weather has a mind of its own. The real reason is you think you're smarter than any met, make better maps and have the birds on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The real reason is you think you're smarter than any met, make better maps and have the birds on your side. I'm the smartest one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Chef Boyardee would disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goduke Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'd put money on the 18z gfs verifying 4 days out against anyone willing to take the gfs. Way to soon to throw in the towel especially with the euro ensembles on your side. Side note, Ryan Kelly is starting tonight, so anything is possible. Yep! Im excited to have Kelly back, finally! I guess I could wait till the 0z gfs comes out. It came back in a big way last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Model is hugging is when you see that these mets are not saying 1 word about the 18z GFS. Look at DT etc. Yeah there we go. That's it. DT is a disaster. If it showed what he wanted he would be all over it. He just trashes the GFS ever since hurricane Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 the only model that went north today was the gfs. Every other model has held serve or went south. Not too long ago SC and GA was supposed to get a big hit. Now it shows VA and everyone forgets about that. Just not sure why people would believe it ending up so far north now when before it was a lot farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Model hugging is when you see that these mets are not saying 1 word about the 18z GFS. Look at DT etc. No model hugging is taking one run and latching on to it. Not saying one word about a model having a totally different solution than every other model is not model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 don't take away my thunder flurries!I have never heard thundersnow. Even living in Chicago. Still wondering how Jim Cantore heard it but I didn't with that fail of a snowstorm back in. 2008. I only saw an inch and most fell as sleet. Apparently we still got school cancelled though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yep! Im excited to have Kelly back, finally! I guess I could wait till the 0z gfs comes out. It came back in a big way last night. Yeah, Duke just isn't Duke without some big goofy looking white dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.