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Feb 27th Observation Thread


dryslot

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Dual pol is amazing, but I actually almost wish I couldn't see it...because I can see how short our clock is in these events. It's almost more fun to just wonder where the sleet line is. Though in several cases the reflectivity can see it anyway without dual pol. But dual pol really tells a full story rather than a synopsis or estimation.

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Sometimes too much info isn't a good thing....that's why I love when the models bust (in our favor of course).  We'll have to see where that rain line gets to.  I suspect up by me it will snow when it is heavy and may drizzle.  If it snows hard enough we get our double digits even with some occassional drizzle.  I am curious about Thurs night and Friday though.

 

At some point that line will stop Will, I wonder where...maybe you will just hang on and the Euro overcorrected.

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that's just mean

 

I think Kevin saw the writing on the wall...though I'm not sure he expected to be skunked...I'm surprised Tolland got almost nothing. I thought at least 1-2" ...still a chance...but it has to happen in the next 90-100 minutes....if the colder guidance verifies.

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Interesting tidbit from the GYX discussion that just came out.  dunno if it helps in SNE but it probably helps me and Brian and Jeff and Eric.

 

 

OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE 00Z MODELSUITE AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THIS STORM. STRONGWARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE WARNINGAREAS. PLENTY OF WARM AIR REMAINS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTNEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL YORK COUNTY...WHERE THE FIRST CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN SOMELOCATIONS.FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TOTHE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL FRONT. THIS IS ALLOWING LOWER DEWPOINTS TO FUNNEL SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONALEVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN THE COLUMN OVER SOUTHERN INTERIORCOUNTIES.ALONG THE MID ATLC COASTLINE...BEST PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TOREMAIN OFF THE COAST...WHICH IS INTERESTING IN ITSELF.
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