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Feb 27th Observation Thread


dryslot

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Whatd Euro have? Nam has it too. Maybe we can even do a little better

 

 

Euro was a bit less since it starts the snow earlier and waste more qpf on torched BL...prob a coating to an inch at the end on the euro since it shuts the snow off by midnight.

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Is there any snow accumulation here for tomorrow morning with forecasted snowshowers and low's in the upper 20's?

 

 

Doubt they would be heavy enough...but a coating isnt out of the question. We have some flakes mixed in here right now but too warm still too stick.

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Is there any snow accumulation here for tomorrow morning with forecasted snowshowers and low's in the upper 20's?

It won't get into the upper 20's tonight. We might stay 32-33 all night. and then hit 40 tomorrow..before it cools in the afternoon under the ULL. Steep lapse rates tomorrow..so BDL might hit 46 -48 while we tickle 39-41

 

I'd keep an eye on that inv trough tomorrow night..It could be fun if we can get under it

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It won't get into the upper 20's tonight. We might stay 32-33 all night. and then hit 40 tomorrow..before it cools in the afternoon under the ULL. Steep lapse rates tomorrow..so BDL might hit 46 -48 while we tickle 39-41

 

I'd keep an eye on that inv trough tomorrow night..It could be fun if we can get under it

 

 

I'm not sold tomorrow night yet, but if it sets up right it isn't impossible for someone to get 2 or 3 inches from it...but it needs to come down heavy for a good 3 hours. I hope the Euro pushes back the timing a bit. GFS was pretty good actually at 18z...it actually hit NW RI and extreme NE CT pretty hard with 2-3 inches.

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It won't get into the upper 20's tonight. We might stay 32-33 all night. and then hit 40 tomorrow..before it cools in the afternoon under the ULL. Steep lapse rates tomorrow..so BDL might hit 46 -48 while we tickle 39-41

 

I'd keep an eye on that inv trough tomorrow night..It could be fun if we can get under it

 

 

NWS P/C has 29F forcasted for here tonight, originally it was 33F, then 31F and now 29F, so who know's whats right. Weatherundergound shows it near freezing already at 1,200' in the Union area.

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I'm not sold tomorrow night yet, but if it sets up right it isn't impossible for someone to get 2 or 3 inches from it...but it needs to come down heavy for a good 3 hours. I hope the Euro pushes back the timing a bit. GFS was pretty good actually at 18z...it actually hit NW RI and extreme NE CT pretty hard with 2-3 inches.

After what the Euro pulled last night..it's on my ****list. All modelling seems to be targeting NW RI to  east of the river  in CT and then up to your area out to MRG..interesting setup

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After what the Euro pulled last night..it's on my ****list. All modelling seems to be targeting NW RI to  east of the river  in CT and then up to your area out to MRG..interesting setup

 

 

Even the great ones have their bad day....Euro's number came up yesterday.

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It should have been obvious..DT's rule about SE winds..works 8 times out of 10..yesterday was one of those 8

 

 

In retrospect, the biggest red flag was probably in the final 36 hours we saw the secondary being modeled further ad further west which reduced our ability to CAD...still the elevations (esp north of the pike) are tough to get that cold air out so it was easy to believe the Euro...but if there's something to take away from it its that once the lower level circulation is far enough west, we do lose the ability to hold in the boundary layer cold.

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