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Feb 27th Observation Thread


dryslot

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upload that vid

dont have a youtube acct i have several vids thats on the north end by the pavilion and the water was already under the homes, the south end of fairfield beach where they lost the homes must be abysmal right now,lots of sirens.  I was frozen temp dropped here.

 

unbelievable, just unbelievable

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That is a very popular thing to do. If it doesn't rip as soon as flakes start flying the bust calls are many and loud.

 

Many hours of precip left to go before people can cry bust.

 

True, but last Tuesday night's rainout is fresh in memory - WSW criteria met 20 miles to my north, 0.6" RA for MBY, ending with just enough IP to turn Mile Hill (Rt 27) into a horror show.  Worst of all possible results, though that was clearly more marginal going in than this one appears.

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dont have a youtube acct i have several vids thats on the north end by the pavilion and the water was already under the homes, the south end of fairfield beach where they lost the homes must be abysmal right now,lots of sirens.  I was frozen temp dropped here.

 

unbelievable, just unbelievable

i can try????

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BTV's update... so nice to see them always factor in the ski resorts, though in this case, its the central/southern resorts doing best.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1204 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/MAX TEMP DATA

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. REST OF FCST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED

WITH ALL EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVSYS REMAINING IN PLACE. MOISTURE AND

ACCOMPANYING RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA ON FAIRLY

ROBUST CYCLONIC SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A LOOK AT INCOMING HI-RES

MODELS AND RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MOST OF THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE

WIND ADVSY AREA ARE MORE GAP-ORIENTED AND LESS PURE DOWNSLOPE

GIVEN SUCH STRONG BLOCKING SIGNATURES. WITH THAT

BLOCKING...HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE

EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SRN GREENS AND ERN DACKS...MAINLY

ABOVE 1500 FEET. IN FACT...OUR CENTRAL/SRN GREEN MTN RESORTS WILL

LIKELY DO QUITE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON.

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Well the hope was that this front end precip as the LLJ rotates north would be in the form of mostly snow due to lift dynamically cooling the column. However that part is busting at the lower elevations.

 

Later today the LLJ will impinge on the high terrain and there they will have the better boundary layer and added lift to help cool the column further. For places without the elevation the hope will ride on whether any occlusion can push the warm layer aloft back to the south. Then precip rates may be able to overcome the marginal surface temps.

dicey!!!!

no wonder the p&c has stuff like "snow and rain, then snow, then rain, the snow likely, accumulations 4-8 inches" I know it is computer generated, but it is funny.  I hope the dynamics are enough for 700 in central Merrimack!  Are you inland enough to be getting snow?

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dicey!!!!

no wonder the p&c has stuff like "snow and rain, then snow, then rain, the snow likely, accumulations 4-8 inches" I know it is computer generated, but it is funny.  I hope the dynamics are enough for 700 in central Merrimack!  Are you inland enough to be getting snow?

 

 

The WFO might be, but I'm in Portland now and I have little hope.

 

The snow, rain, snow, rain stuff is actually a pet peeve of mine. That is likely because of running a diurnal temperature tool to get hourly temps in the grids. So it warms up during the day (rain) then cools at night (snow), and so on. In reality we should be slowly climbing, or steady, or slowing falling. The P&C will always struggle with wording, but it should be more consistently a "snow or rain" thing than snow, rain, snow, rain based on the time of day.

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The WFO might be, but I'm in Portland now and I have little hope.

 

The snow, rain, snow, rain stuff is actually a pet peeve of mine. That is likely because of running a diurnal temperature tool to get hourly temps in the grids. So it warms up during the day (rain) then cools at night (snow), and so on. In reality we should be slowly climbing, or steady, or slowing falling. The P&C will always struggle with wording, but it should be more consistently a "snow or rain" thing than snow, rain, snow, rain based on the time of day.

 

 

I think the office and i are in the haves right now, -SN and looks to be picking up here real quick based on the echoes to my south

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I was asleep at that hour so it could be. I woke up briefly at 2:30am and it was raining and 32.5F with no ice here. The more suprising fact was that it started to rain from the start here, with not a sleet pellet or snowflake and everyone and their grandma forecasted snow.

 

I'd be really surprised if you didn't have mangled flakes by then.  Like I said, I had the barest of coatings when I woke up at 0530 but it wasn't noticeable by 0730 but it was higher up.

 

I'm more surprised by the wind and the lack of mention of that.  I've heard more people comment on that than the lack of snow.

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Not looking good.  That R/S line keeps pushing up through LA it looks like.  

Do you think that R/S drops back down south at any point during this? (Coastal development?)  Or is it once it's moves past you to the north/west, it stays there for the duration?

 

 

You will probably find out real quick once the heavier rates start if you don't flip back, You may be cooked until tonight possibly

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