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February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 3


Brewers

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Ontario forecast -- mixed precip will change to all snow about 9 p.m. in the Lake Ontario region, and this will become heavy, giving 20-30 cm (8-12 in) accumulations by mid-day Wednesday followed by a further 1-3 cm in sporadic light snow for another day or so. Eastern Ontario will see 30-50 cm amounts mainly on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. About 15 cm for Hamilton to London and 10 cm in southwestern ON.

 

Reasoning -- storm is already largely occluded and coastal wave is weak at surface but has large amounts of moisture available for over-running. As thicknesses and 850 mb temps collapse southward after onset of precip, aided by nocturnal cooling effects, this storm will become mainly snowfall even in some parts of w NY so the meagre warmth of Lake Ontario will not be enough to change phase except possibly at times near Toronto Island. Storm will tend to gain a second boost of energy when it transfers most of its circulation to the New England centre and this will increase the snowfall rates in eastern ON (and upstate NY, Quebec, VT-NH) compared to what is recorded in southern ON.

 

For US regions same general thinking, MI should turn to all snow shortly after sunset and most of OH - n/c IN will see more snow than sleet at some point before the storm ends. This storm may also do better in southern New England and the Hudson valley than some are expecting as it seems bent on expelling all traces of warm air in its surface circulation.

 

 

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Well we've been stuck between 2.6-2.9c the last 3 hours or so. Good news is that sfc dewpoints are below freezing by a few degrees so we shouldn't have any problem shedding the warmth when the precip starts. That beings said, most south of the 401 should prepare themselves for at least an hour or two of RASN.

 

Wloo is at 1.2c with a td of 0.7c temps have been on a steady decline from 2.9c at 1245

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Nice pic. Visibility doesn't look as bad there as here. 25dbz returns almost into your area now.

 

Haven't seen a plow go by for about 90 minutes now. ...snowmobile just went down my street!

 

yeah just a few miles south of here is getting it goood..  racine and kenosha getting nailed.  

 

7"   you got, wow!    good luck keeping power and don't kill yourself shoveling.

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Snow/Mix line appears to be a line extending from ADG-YIP/ARB-OZW now. It is just SN at ARB now. Trying to watch radar to see signs of ice pellets or rain mixing back in. Don't think we're going to get a switch back now? Window for a switch back would seem to be closing west of US-23 or so.

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5.3" report from Des Moines and still snowing there.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

418 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0416 PM SNOW DES MOINES 41.58N 93.62W

02/26/2013 M5.3 INCH POLK IA BROADCAST MEDIA

WOI TV REPORTS 5.25 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AT THE STUDIO.

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