February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 3

[A-L-E-K]

Dual pol on COD is cool how it collapses the mix east over the Lake as the heavier returns move in. Great product.

 

yeah dual pol has been awesome during the handful of changeover events this years.

 

Full-on rip city right now with another 2-3 hours of quality returns before being dryslotted we should manage 2-3" in the loop with amounts increasing north and west.

[Gilbertfly]

layer of sleet under the fresh snowfall actually aiding in some of the "blowing snow"

[kevlon62]

just flipped to high end SN...dusting sticking nicely to protective sleet layer

Props to protective sleet layer.

[mimillman]

puking snow in the loop now and accumulating with ease on Wacker Drive

good to see you're finally in on the action. My bet is the radar may even fill in some. Most models don't have the best stuff getting here for another few hours.

[A-L-E-K]

LOT

 

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE AND OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS
LOOK GENERALLY ON TRACK. THERE IS CONCERN THAT PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY MAY WANE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-88. THIS COULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME AREAS FOR THAT TIME...BUT OVERALL TOTALS MAY STILL BE
WITHIN THE FORECAST RANGES DEPENDING ON ACCUMULATION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE...SLOWING THE TRANSITION TO RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND
ADJUSTING THE HEAVY SNOW WORDING. GENERALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
NOT BEEN CHANGED BUT MAY END UP NEEDING TO BE LOWERED FOR SOME AREAS
WITH LIMITED DURATION OF OVERALL HEAVY SNOWFALL.

SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS STACKED LOW ENTERING FAR
SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE FORCING AND FOCUSED
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS HAS HELPED THE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHWARD. EMBEDDED HEAVIER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN SEEN...AIDED BY MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
LIKELY FRONTOGENESIS UNDER A MARKED UNSTABLE LAYER ALOFT. THIS HEAVY
SNOW INCLUDES NEAR THE LEADING EDGE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH METRO WHERE HALF MILE HEAVY SNOW AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED VARIOUS REPORTING MEANS. WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH WINDS HAVING TURNED NORTHEAST...THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES IN PLACES...WITH READINGS
MAINLY 32 TO 34 UNDER THE PRECIP CANOPY.

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM MDW AND ORD ALONG WITH THE LOCAL ARW MODEL
ANALYSIS INDICATE THE DYNAMIC COOLING IS OFFSETTING THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...WHICH AGREES WITH GOING FORECAST. POCKETS OF HEAVIER
SNOW INCLUDING WITH LARGE FLAKES GIVEN THE OMEGA IN THE DGZ ARE
LIKELY AND HAVE BEEN REPORTED. SHORT TERM WRFS/ARWS PROVIDE HIGH DBZ
THROUGH 21Z WHICH SUPPORTS QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING...AND HAVE
ADDED HEAVY SNOW WORDING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THESE CORRIDORS OF HEAVIER SNOW ARE SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY THOUGH AND
WHILE SOME RAPID ACCUMULATIONS HAVE COME IN /HALF INCH IN UNDER A
HALF HOUR AT A HANDFUL OF PLACES/...LONG DURATION OF THIS HAS NOT
BEEN SEEN THUS FAR.
 

[snowstormcanuck]

12z Euro for Toronto man; 

 

Nice find! Looks about the same as the 0z. Maybe a little drier but thermals are not warmer.

[Geos]

RPM projection!

 

 

Starting to snow like mad now. Down below freezing near the lake in Waukegan.

[mimillman]

SN+ now. Good size dendrites.

[SchaumburgStormer]

RPM projection!

rpm_snow_noon26th.png

Starting to snow like mad now. Down below freezing near the lake in Waukegan.

Hahaha, gonna need the radar to fill in a bit in central IN

[A-L-E-K]

SN+ now. Good size dendrites.

 

 

Operation dumbo drop snow

[Chitown Storm]

if those higher returns over the lake hold together eastbound, look out. Could be fun to watch. 

[Harry Perry]

good to see you're finally in on the action. My bet is the radar may even fill in some. Most models don't have the best stuff getting here for another few hours.

We're beyond models at this point. What we are seeing outside right now is the "Burst" of precip that the models are showing. They just don't do a very solid job on the returns, especially with this type of event. (Dynamic cooling, temperatures hovering near freezing, convective feedback...etc.)

Congrats to Chicago for finally getting synoptic snow!!!!

[michsnowfreak]

So per IL reports i see the nonsense of snow having a hard time sticking in late February because its in the low 30s during the day has ONCE AGAIN proven a fail.

[harrisale]

His model has cut Toronto's totals in half...but kept Kitchener/Waterloo's intact 

 

https://twitter.com/AnthonyFarnell/status/306467421454213120/photo/1

 

I think KW to Guelph to Caledon has been the sweet spot for a while now. Would expect those forecasted totals to remain the same.

[hm8]

34 and wind driven rain... Can't get much worse than that.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

[A-L-E-K]

Hahaha, gonna need the radar to fill in a bit in central IN

 

someone near the border or southern WI pivot point could go double dig if things play out just right...MDW is the lolz

[mimillman]

Can finally post these words:

Heaviest snow of the season by far. Half dollar flakes.

[WestCoaster]

12z Euro for Toronto man; 

 

Nice, that would give us about a foot. That's very similar to the last Euro model run before the Feb 8 storm hit, after many 40cm runs. 

 

Problem is, we're about half a degree warmer than we should be at this time. Midnight temps are going to be the deciding factor here. If we can get near freezing we're golden.

 

My thermometer has me at 2.6 now, though. Cold wind must be lowering my temps. Low level fluffy clouds and altostratus moving in over the lake. No blue sky anymore.

[MidwestChaser]

Operation dumbo drop snow

 

Elephant snow? Wear a helmet, bro.

[Powerball]

So per IL reports i see the nonsense of snow having a hard time sticking in late February because its in the low 30s during the day has ONCE AGAIN proven a fail.

Well of course that's true when you're getting muffin-sized flakes at 1-2" per hour.

[Hoosier]

34 and wind driven rain... Can't get much worse than that. Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

Unless you were me this morning.

[Chicago Storm]

+SN continues here. Visibility has been down to about 100ft at times.

I'm down the road at work...I'd estimate about 1-1.5" down so far.

[A-L-E-K]

Elephant snow? Wear a helmet, bro.

 

the pingers earlier stung a little when i was out grabbing a gyro

[wxhstn74]

Update 2/26/13 - Areas of Mixed Precipitation To Impact Snowfall Amounts

 

Update 2/26/13...100 PM

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/02/update-22613-areas-of-mixed.html

[Chitown Storm]

I like Skilling for the most part. But please tell me he doesn't actually  believe ORD is getting 13.3".  

[A-L-E-K]

Well of course that's true when you're getting muffin-sized flakes at 1-2" per hour.

 

yeah, Josh created a strawman for himself.  Accums were always dependent on heavy rates being able to overcome melting.  We'll see how things do when rates slacken off later this evening.

[Chicago WX]

Unless you were me this morning.

 

Yes. This is where you want to be for true winter weather misery. 

[Geos]

Belching snow here now. 3/4" flakes. Looks like how the 2/7 storm started out there right now.

 

Lots of sub freezing temperatures now in the area.

 

[TimChgo9]

Moderate snow, with bursts of heavy snow.

 

Temps are doing something funny at the moment.  They are wavering a few tenths of a degree between 31.3 and 31.6. It was 31.6 a few minutes ago, now down to 31.5 and perhaps on a downward trend.  Not sure what is going on with that. 

 

Nice heavy snow... probably 1"+ on the ground right now.

[Toronto4]

My final call for the Toronto area (totals to Thursday morning):

Downtown Toronto: 6-8"

Midtown Toronto (St. Clair to hwy 401): 7-10"

North Toronto (401 to Steeles): 8-12"

Areas north of Steeles: 9-14"