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February 26-27 Winter Storm Observation Thread


IsentropicLift

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If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

 

36 and absolutely pouring out with gusting winds. No snow, sleet or any kind of winter precip. Odd how all the layers are above freezing and it's just a few degrees above freezing on the surface. This could easily be a historic ice storm if we were only a few degrees colder..

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Gusting to 50 mph now in Lindenhurst.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYLINDE3

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY729 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..0651 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N NORTH LINDENHURST   40.73N  73.38W02/27/2013                   SUFFOLK            NY   BROADCAST MEDIA            DOWNED TREE BLOCKING RIGHT LANE ON WESTBOUND SOUTHERN            STATE PKWY
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Gusting to 50 mph now in Lindenhurst.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYLINDE3

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY729 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..0651 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N NORTH LINDENHURST   40.73N  73.38W02/27/2013                   SUFFOLK            NY   BROADCAST MEDIA            DOWNED TREE BLOCKING RIGHT LANE ON WESTBOUND SOUTHERN            STATE PKWY

I saw a torn railroad sign this morning in Oceanside-those winds mean business. Luckily most weak infrastructure down along the immediate south shore has been already ripped out by other storms.

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Winds have been absolutely ripping here. Some gusts even rivaling the March 2010 nor'easter's wind gusts. Surprised there isn't a wind advisory in place.

 

EDIT: They just put one in place.

 

Strong yes but no were near the upper 70's we had on the South Shore during March 2010. Apples and Oranges.

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Strong yes but no were near the upper 70's we had on the South Shore during March 2010. Apples and Oranges.

 

Lets not exaggerate here. The highest wind gust during the March 2010 nor'easter was 75mph at KJFK. The strongest wind gusts here on the south shore of LI in that storm were in the mid to upper 60's but generally 50-60mph, no where near upper 70's, there's not one report that supports your observation of upper 70's wind gusts. I'm do not exaggerate the winds I see at all like a lot of people on this.

 

From today's storm.

***********************peak wind gust***********************

Location Max wind time/date comments 

                        gust of 

                         mph measurement

Connecticut

... Fairfield County... 

   Bridgeport Airport 53 733 am 2/27 ASOS 

   1 ESE Norwalk 52 755 am 2/27 mesonet 

   1 se Bridgeport 48 930 am 2/27 mesonet 

... New Haven County... 

   New Haven 52 958 am 2/27 ASOS 

... New London County... 

   Groton Airport 53 1100 am 2/27 ASOS 

New Jersey

... Bergen County... 

   Teterboro 44 903 am 2/27 ASOS 

New York

... Anz330... 

   buoy 44039 45 845 am 2/27 buoy 

... Anz335... 

   buoy 44040 43 645 am 2/27 buoy 

... Anz345... 

   2 SSE East Moriches 49 925 am 2/27 mesonet 

   1 S captree state PA 48 740 am 2/27 mesonet 

... Anz350... 

   buoy 44017 47 650 am 2/27 buoy 

... Anz355... 

   2 WSW Rockaway Beach 53 735 am 2/27 mesonet 

   buoy 44065 45 650 am 2/27 buoy 

... Nassau County... 

   1 SSE Massapequa 51 515 am 2/27 mesonet 

   3 E Lido Beach 51 640 am 2/27 mesonet 

   Syosset 50 739 am 2/27 Skywarn spotter 

   Bayville 49 805 am 2/27 mesonet 

   2 NNE Glen Cove 47 325 am 2/27 mesonet 

   Merrick 46 603 am 2/27 Skywarn spotter 

... New York County... 

   Central Park 37 645 am 2/27 ASOS 

... Queens County... 

   NYC/JFK Airport 53 711 am 2/27 ASOS 

   NYC/La Guardia 36 442 am 2/27 ASOS 

... Suffolk County... 

   Mecox 52 855 am 2/27 mesonet 

   1 S Blue Point 50 506 am 2/27 mesonet 

   Eatons Neck 49 305 am 2/27 mesonet 

   Islip Airport 48 523 am 2/27 ASOS 

   1 ENE Ocean Beach 46 515 am 2/27 mesonet 

   East Farmingdale 46 639 am 2/27 ASOS 

   1 se Amityville 46 744 am 2/27 mesonet 

   Fishers Island 44 752 am 2/27 mesonet 

   4 ENE Plum Island 42 321 am 2/27 mesonet 

   Westhampton Beach Ai 41 819 am 2/27 ASOS 

   East Moriches 41 255 am 2/27 mesonet 

... Westchester County... 

   Ossining 52 943 am 2/27 mesonet 

   Larchmont 48 844 am 2/27 mesonet 

   White Plains Airport 47 834 am 2/27 ASOS

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Lets not exaggerate here. The highest wind gust during the March 2010 nor'easter was 75mph at KJFK. The strongest wind gusts here on the south shore of LI in that storm were in the mid to upper 60's but generally 50-60mph, no where near upper 70's, there's not one report that supports your observation of upper 70's wind gusts. I'm do not exaggerate the winds I see at all like a lot of people on this.

 

 

It is almost certain the highest winds during March 10 were not sampled. There were damage swaths similar to and of the same nature of those from Sandy during that storm. A gas station awning completely blew of in Wantagh. There were also similar (though admittedly more isolated) areas of complete tree blow down along the Wantagh Parkway and in parts of Rockville Center. I honestly believe there were  un-sampled isolated gust to around 80 during that storm based on damage I observed. Parts of the immediate South Shore (Nassau) took it on the head. Other then Sandy and December 92 that was tops in my book.

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It is almost certain the highest winds during March 10 were not sampled. There were damage swaths similar to and of the same nature of those from Sandy during that storm. A gas station awning completely blew of in Wantagh. There were also similar (though admittedly more isolated) areas of complete tree blow down along the Wantagh Parkway and in parts of Rockville Center. I honestly believe there were  un-sampled isolated gust to around 80 during that storm based on damage I observed. Parts of the immediate South Shore (Nassau) took it on the head. Other then Sandy and December 92 that was tops in my book.

 

You do know you do not need 70-80mph wind gusts to blow off a gas station awning. The roof of an air hanger at KISP was blown off with only a 56mph wind gust on the night of December 7th, 2011. As far as tree damage, that can depend on how many weak trees there are in the area and the soil moisture. Prior to March 13th, 2010, there wasn't any significant wind events, so there were a lot of trees that were vulnerable. Also, we were coming out of a very snowy winter and we were already having a wet March to begin with, so the soil was very soft, allowing a lot of trees to fall. With all the past significant wind events over the past few years, the amount of trees that are incapable of tolerating the strong wind have decreased, because they have all fallen during prior events. You want to take a look at structural damage. Obviously the gas station was one, but depending on the strength and quality of the awning will determine if it will blow off or not. That is why it is essential to look at obs across the area. There are plenty of mesonet and other weather stations across the area that can collect enough wind data. Most wind anemometers at airports are out in the open and exposed, so there is little friction from trees buildings whatsoever. Given that the highest wind gust was only a isolated wind gust of 75mph at KJFK at an exposed area near the water, the only other places that would be able to match that wind speed or exceed it will be right at the beaches or over the water. Once you even a tad inland, friction will slow down the speeds. Which is why many ASOS stations on LI only had gusts in the 60-70mph, with the exception of KJFK because of its proximity to the water. That is why I doubt there was any 80mph wind gusts, with maybe an exception or two at the beach. March 2010 was definitely a much more powerful wind storm than last night, but there were some wind gusts that were comparable from last night to that storm.

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You do know you do not need 70-80mph wind gusts to blow off a gas station awning. The roof of an air hanger at KISP was blown off with only a 56mph wind gust on the night of December 7th, 2011. As far as tree damage, that can depend on how many weak trees there are in the area and the soil moisture. Prior to March 13th, 2010, there wasn't any significant wind events, so there were a lot of trees that were vulnerable. Also, we were coming out of a very snowy winter and we were already having a wet March to begin with, so the soil was very soft, allowing a lot of trees to fall. With all the past significant wind events over the past few years, the amount of trees that are incapable of tolerating the strong wind have decreased, because they have all fallen during prior events. You want to take a look at structural damage. Obviously the gas station was one, but depending on the strength and quality of the awning will determine if it will blow off or not. That is why it is essential to look at obs across the area. There are plenty of mesonet and other weather stations across the area that can collect enough wind data. Most wind anemometers at airports are out in the open and exposed, so there is little friction from trees buildings whatsoever. Given that the highest wind gust was only a isolated wind gust of 75mph at KJFK at an exposed area near the water, the only other places that would be able to match that wind speed or exceed it will be right at the beaches or over the water. Once you even a tad inland, friction will slow down the speeds. Which is why many ASOS stations on LI only had gusts in the 60-70mph, with the exception of KJFK because of its proximity to the water. That is why I doubt there was any 80mph wind gusts, with maybe an exception or two at the beach. March 2010 was definitely a much more powerful wind storm than last night, but there were some wind gusts that were comparable from last night to that storm.

 

Nice answer considering you're 15 (I'm dead serious not being sarcastic)... Did you read the NWS write up on Sandy? They used the one isolated hurricane force sustained observation to imply that Sandy did produce true hurricane conditions on land. Also, read the reanalysis of the 38 hurricane where one observation was used to imply that 38 was a major at landfall. All of this is using the rule that it is almost certain the highest winds were not sampled. If the top experts the NWS and NHC are using this rule I think its cool if we use it here.

I understand your point about JFK being exposed. The thing is the damage areas I mentioned in Wantagh are just as, if not more exposed then JFK. (by the bay) So that isn't the issue.

Much of what you wrote about trees and root saturation is true in regards to a typical suburban street tree. The damage swaths I mentioned are not isolated weak trees here or there though. I am talking forested areas 50 or 100 feet wide and several hundred feet long where dozens of mature (huge) oaks and red maples (the predominant native trees in this area), are toppled in a domino like pattern. There is one very good example of this from March 10 on the Wantagh Parkway south of Merrick Road that crossed the Parkway. It included about 50 mature trees and will be visible for many years. Sandy produced these swaths over a much larger area due to a much more wide spread gusts greater then 80mph (a great example is on the Meadow Brook Parkway between Sunrise Highway and Merrick Road)

I remember first learning of this phenomenon after Hurricane Andrew in portions of Homestead Florida http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/htmls/wea00533.htm Similar damage

Another great example with similar type damage (though admittedly stronger) is the great England storm of 1987. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

 

"Damage patterns in south-east England suggested that whirlwinds accompanied the storm."

 

The "whirlwinds" they speak of are the same phenomenon that caused the blow-down on the Wantagh Parkway during March 10. Small but extremely intense vorticity that I would assume are at least 20mph stronger then in surrounding areas.

Using the observed 68mph gust from a Wantagh ASOS and adding 20mph = 88mph which fits perfectly with much more widespread Sandy damage and observed gusts.

It is absolutely impossible to say with any level of certainty that the strongest winds in events of that magnitude and nature were properly sampled.

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