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February 26-27 Winter Storm Observation Thread


IsentropicLift

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The NAM still has temperatures running up into the middle 50's to near 60 across Central NJ tomorrow. Behind the initial surge of precipitation, the surface low and surface cold front lag a bit...and there is a period of clearing and southwest flow at 10m around 18-21z. Pretty cool...a very small "warm" sector.

 

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Anyone know what the short term models are showing for NW NJ? Any trends? Up to 42 in Vernon which is slightly higher than forecasted.

 

There is no way it is 42 in Vernon. All stations coming in between 36-39 for that location. 

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This is quickly becoming a primarily very heavy rain event for 90% of us with a slight ZR threat NW of 287. The 18z High res NAM shows 2-4" of area wide. Probably a bit overdone but the simulated radars have plenty of 35-50dbz echos passing right over the entire area.

 

Yeah tomorrow morning is going to be a nasty commute regardless. Luckily all our snow is gone down this way or we'd be looking at even more flooding

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The models are starting to converge fairly nicely now on a period of fairly heavy rain with 1-2" the growing consensus area wide. The only difference snow wise between the 18z NAM and GFS are that it's a tad snowier for Sullivan County which is well out our juristiction. The 18z GFS has basically no snow from Orange County south and eastward. By the looks of it, even the areas that start as a little bit of frozen change over just after sunrise.

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This is quickly becoming a primarily very heavy rain event for 90% of us with a slight ZR threat NW of 287. The 18z High res NAM shows 2-4" of area wide. Probably a bit overdone but the simulated radars have plenty of 35-50dbz echos passing right over the entire area.

 

This is probably a more reasonable outcome...

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Yeah tomorrow morning is going to be a nasty commute regardless. Luckily all our snow is gone down this way or we'd be looking at even more flooding

We still have snow in piles here, especially in parking lots and on lawns that don't get much sun. This could be a surprise flooding threat for parts of CT where they have a more substaintial snowpack in place and could end up with 2.0"+ of rain that will come down in a fairly short clip. I'm curious how the snowpack is holding up in Sussex and northern Passaic Counties and the higher elevations that feed the Passaic River basin. 

 

Edit: Just checked some of the local river forecasts. They are expecting 2-4' rises in most places. Could be enough to reach action stage in some places.

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