Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 I like 2-5 in Chicagoland right now. If things look more Euro-like tomorrow at 12z, that will obviously need to be revisited. Very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 way too generous to throw in wiwx. On a more serious note are you gunning for a position at LOT or some other office down the road? Yeah, I'll be in Traverse City, unless you can convince the LOT office that they need a negative weenie assistant met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MKG: WED 00Z 27-FEB 1.1 -3.8 1006 81 78 0.13 545 540 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.8 -4.6 1004 89 97 0.20 541 538 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.6 -4.7 1005 88 98 0.09 540 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.7 -4.8 1007 81 96 0.01 542 537 THU 00Z 28-FEB 1.3 -5.7 1010 82 99 0.01 543 535 THU 06Z 28-FEB -0.7 -6.8 1012 88 86 0.01 544 535 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 After 6. Ima be at the game Bow, but i'll be back round 8/9. Just shoot me a PM whenever ur on later tomorrow.. Off to bed, hope the Goofus and it's gang comes around for the 6z/12z runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah, I'll be in Traverse City, unless you can convince the LOT office that they need a negative weenie assistant met. If we're stuck together we're heading to a real snowbelt in the Upper UP. Deeper snow to bury you under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Ima be at the game Bow, but i'll be back round 8/9. Just shoot me a PM whenever ur on later tomorrow.. Off to bed, hope the Goofus comes around 6z/12z... Lucky bastard.. Hook up wiwx with the ladies. I'm nervous for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 925mb temps on the Euro never get above -2 deg C here during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like the 0z NAM is on its own with the dominant primary in Michigan by 72 hours. EURO/GFS/GEM also show some type of transfer to the coast, which seems appropriate for a storm that's occluded. 0z EURO looks almost as juicy for YYZ as the GFS did so the 12z "dryness" was an aberration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like the 0z NAM is on its own with the dominant primary in Michigan by 72 hours. EURO/GFS/GEM also show some type of transfer to the coast, which seems appropriate for a storm that's occluded. 0z EURO looks almost as juicy for YYZ as the GFS did so the 12z "dryness" was an aberration. Euro with 12" for both of us but thats with a 10:1 ratio, def knocking some of that off for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like the 0z NAM is on its own with the dominant primary in Michigan by 72 hours. EURO/GFS/GEM also show some type of transfer to the coast, which seems appropriate for a storm that's occluded. 0z EURO looks almost as juicy for YYZ as the GFS did so the 12z "dryness" was an aberration. yeah unfortunately the NAM is bogus and she's going to bite me hard. I imagine this run or 12z will have her coming earlier and inline with the euro more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro with 12" for both of us but thats with a 10:1 ratio, def knocking some of that off for here. I'm going with 8:1. I can't fathom anything lower than that while still sticking to the ground. I mentioned before my climo isn't really conducive for heavy wet snowstorms. Seems like 12:1 is the base for about 95% of the snowfalls >2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 yeah unfortunately the NAM is bogus and she's going to bite me hard. I imagine this run or 12z will have her coming earlier and inline with the euro more. I went to bed thinking the 0z NAM was the beginning of a trend that was going to send this storm further north and warmer. Shrugged it off. I had my foot snowstorm this year. Can't be greedy. It didn't end up being a trend, so lucky me, but still if you can use whatever pull you have with the wx gods to get yby a good snowstorm you do it. Leave me in the rain if you must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I went to bed thinking the 0z NAM was the beginning of a trend that was going to send this storm further north and warmer. Shrugged it off. I had my foot snowstorm this year. Can't be greedy. It didn't end up being a trend, so lucky me, but still if you can use whatever pull you have with the wx gods to get yby a good snowstorm you do it. Leave me in the rain if you must. euro ensembles mean even shows 1inch + QPF in your backyard. .75 or more on a line from Chicago to here and then Caro MI on south/se. .50 for bowme to Grand Haven and then Mt. Pleasant on to the ne. Surface low to near Cleveland at which point a coastal takes over the the UL system also tracks towards the coast as well taking the same path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This'd have a chance if it were colder at the sfc: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 euro ensembles mean even shows 1inch + QPF in your backyard. .75 or more on a line from Chicago to here and then Caro MI on south/se. .50 for bowme to Grand Haven and then Mt. Pleasant on to the ne. Surface low to near Cleveland at which point a coastal takes over the the UL system also tracks towards the coast as well taking the same path. Thanks for the info Harry. We'll see what the 6z NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I went to bed thinking the 0z NAM was the beginning of a trend that was going to send this storm further north and warmer. Shrugged it off. I had my foot snowstorm this year. Can't be greedy. It didn't end up being a trend, so lucky me, but still if you can use whatever pull you have with the wx gods to get yby a good snowstorm you do it. Leave me in the rain if you must. you're in a sweet spot no matter what model at 00z.. No power is taking anything away from you getting not getting a nice storm. Goofy nam taking the low up to you is totally lol wrong. Thanks a lot for the info harry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 euro ensembles mean even shows 1inch + QPF in your backyard. .75 or more on a line from Chicago to here and then Caro MI on south/se. .50 for bowme to Grand Haven and then Mt. Pleasant on to the ne. Surface low to near Cleveland at which point a coastal takes over the the UL system also tracks towards the coast as well taking the same path. have those numbers been consistent and/or track the last few runs or a little waffling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 dam nam stuck on 36 like last night for awhile. Gonna be sweating bullets before tomorrows euro. no play room for a shift south now again like yesterdays 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 dam nam stuck on 36 like last night for awhile. Gonna be sweating bullets before tomorrows euro. no play room for a shift south now again like yesterdays 12z run. It always sticks on 36hr and have no idea why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It always sticks on 36hr and have no idea why. tells you how much i follow the NAM. not sure why I was humping it so much this event. nw side should should see a nice cut back on qpf and would expect the same for another run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 she's starting to open up now at 42 like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Still trying to take the sfc low due north to Gary at 45hr, not buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 still nice run but we'll see the higher qpf come south to chicago over the next few runs. Time to go back to not looking at the NAM until real close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Still trying to take the sfc low due north to Gary at 45hr, not buying that. me neither.. this about the time the NAM starts finding herself and makes the slow transition towards other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 me neither.. this about the time the NAM starts finding herself. Not betting against the Euro op and it's ensemble mean. No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Not betting against the Euro op and it's ensemble mean. No thank you. yeah you're in the sweet and pretty dam high confidence spot. no way I'd be sweating the NAM and its actually in a great spot to give you even more confidence in a euro solution being the one. Toronto is getting croaked no matter if the NAM is right which it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 no need to stay up for the ugly gfs but I'm sure I won't be able to fall asleep with snow and afd's on the mind so I'll be back in a hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 10" lollipop over BowMe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 lol, pervert. That 10" is coming for you chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Still trying to take the sfc low due north to Gary at 45hr, not buying that. Yeah that is a load of crap, NAM fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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