Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looks like the 0z NAM is on its own with the dominant primary in Michigan by 72 hours. EURO/GFS/GEM also show some type of transfer to the coast, which seems appropriate for a storm that's occluded. 0z EURO looks almost as juicy for YYZ as the GFS did so the 12z "dryness" was an aberration.

 

Euro with 12" for both of us but thats with a 10:1 ratio, def knocking some of that off for here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the 0z NAM is on its own with the dominant primary in Michigan by 72 hours. EURO/GFS/GEM also show some type of transfer to the coast, which seems appropriate for a storm that's occluded. 0z EURO looks almost as juicy for YYZ as the GFS did so the 12z "dryness" was an aberration.

 

yeah unfortunately the NAM is bogus and she's going to bite me hard.  I imagine this run or 12z will have her coming earlier and inline with the euro more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro with 12" for both of us but thats with a 10:1 ratio, def knocking some of that off for here.

 

I'm going with 8:1. I can't fathom anything lower than that while still sticking to the ground. I mentioned before my climo isn't really conducive for heavy wet snowstorms. Seems like 12:1 is the base for about 95% of the snowfalls >2" here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah unfortunately the NAM is bogus and she's going to bite me hard.  I imagine this run or 12z will have her coming earlier and inline with the euro more.

 

I went to bed thinking the 0z NAM was the beginning of a trend that was going to send this storm further north and warmer. Shrugged it off. I had my foot snowstorm this year. Can't be greedy. It didn't end up being a trend, so lucky me, but still if you can use whatever pull you have with the wx gods to get yby a good snowstorm you do it. Leave me in the rain if you must.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I went to bed thinking the 0z NAM was the beginning of a trend that was going to send this storm further north and warmer. Shrugged it off. I had my foot snowstorm this year. Can't be greedy. It didn't end up being a trend, so lucky me, but still if you can use whatever pull you have with the wx gods to get yby a good snowstorm you do it. Leave me in the rain if you must.

 

euro ensembles mean even shows 1inch + QPF in your backyard. .75 or more on a line from Chicago to here and then Caro MI on south/se. .50 for bowme to Grand Haven and then Mt. Pleasant on to the ne. Surface low to near Cleveland at which point a coastal takes over the the UL system also tracks towards the coast as well taking the same path.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

euro ensembles mean even shows 1inch + QPF in your backyard. .75 or more on a line from Chicago to here and then Caro MI on south/se. .50 for bowme to Grand Haven and then Mt. Pleasant on to the ne. Surface low to near Cleveland at which point a coastal takes over the the UL system also tracks towards the coast as well taking the same path.

 

Thanks for the info Harry. We'll see what the 6z NAM does.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I went to bed thinking the 0z NAM was the beginning of a trend that was going to send this storm further north and warmer. Shrugged it off. I had my foot snowstorm this year. Can't be greedy. It didn't end up being a trend, so lucky me, but still if you can use whatever pull you have with the wx gods to get yby a good snowstorm you do it. Leave me in the rain if you must.

 

 

you're in a sweet spot no matter what model at 00z..  No power is taking anything away from you getting not getting a nice storm. Goofy nam taking the low up to you is totally lol wrong.

 

Thanks a lot for the info harry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

euro ensembles mean even shows 1inch + QPF in your backyard. .75 or more on a line from Chicago to here and then Caro MI on south/se. .50 for bowme to Grand Haven and then Mt. Pleasant on to the ne. Surface low to near Cleveland at which point a coastal takes over the the UL system also tracks towards the coast as well taking the same path.

 

have those numbers been consistent and/or track the last few runs or a little waffling?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not betting against the Euro op and it's ensemble mean. No thank you.

 

yeah you're in the sweet and pretty dam high confidence spot.  no way I'd be sweating the NAM and its actually in a great spot to give you even more confidence in a euro solution being the one.

 

Toronto is getting croaked no matter if the NAM is right which it isn't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...