Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hair slower through 30hr but not by much. 992mb in northeast AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Dang, WRF-NMM really swings the snow back to the west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 But but but but, it doesn't matter one bit. That's the point of watches. Its acceptable and pretty common to transition to an advisory after a watch. This storm at worst is going to have an advisory level impact so the Watches are perfectly fine.. That's not what watches are designed for, the are for when you have high confidence (>50%) that warning criteria will be met, Here's what our directive has to say... "WFOs will issue a winter weather watch when conditions are favorable for a hazardous winter weather event to develop over part or all of the forecast area, but the occurrence is uncertain. WFOs should issue winter weather watches with as much lead time as possible when there is a 50 percent or greater chance of a hazardous winter weather event meeting or exceeding local warning and/or impact criteria. Watches are typically issued with lead times of 36 to 48 hours..." "Care should be taken to balance the need to inform the public of impending hazardous weather with the need to avoid reducing the effectiveness of watches by issuing too many false alarms." This is what is advertised to our users and documented for our forecasters, so we should try to follow that when possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro staying consistent, 992mb in southeast MO at 36hr. Wetter in MO compared to 12z run. Just a tad slower overall but barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 can't be much love between LOT and Milwaukee office. Rivalry and hate between both cities/state goes beyond the Bears and Packers. I likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 .75"+ QPF bullseye over Chicago at 48hrs. Best QPF axis looks a bit southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 back to last night up here at best as weenie logic thought. chicago crushed.. tater tots dropped and watch out for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 .75"+ QPF bullseye over Chicago at 48hrs. Best QPF axis looks a bit southeast. QPF for Peoria, IL please from 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 me and the NAM horse barrel rolling down the front stretch of Churchill downs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The King has spoken, and it has laughed at its lowly peasant NAM....at least 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The King has spoken, and it has laughed at its lowly peasant NAM....at least 48 hours out. Back to something similar as last night up here.. hopefully it holds there until go time. I'm cool with 2-4" anything less than an inch or two and send this baby south enough to nail LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 QPF for YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 going to be a nasty gradient from DBQ to DPA/ORD on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 going to be a nasty gradient from DBQ to DPA/ORD on this run. You have QPF for Peoria please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 ORD with 1.23" liquid.. TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.0 -1.9 1005 74 84 0.04 546 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.4 1004 96 96 0.82 540 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.5 -4.7 1003 95 95 0.21 540 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.1 -5.6 1005 93 97 0.12 540 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -5.5 1008 88 96 0.04 542 536 DPA with 1.17" liquid.. TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.5 -1.5 1005 76 80 0.08 545 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.2 -5.5 1004 94 97 0.76 540 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.3 -4.8 1004 93 94 0.20 540 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.4 -5.6 1006 92 97 0.10 540 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.2 -5.5 1008 86 97 0.03 542 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro definitely shifted southeast. My original jokingly pessimistic 1-3" call for the QC looking golden. Seasonal trends FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 just dumping fatties down during rush hr in chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MKE: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.7 0.1 1009 66 47 0.00 548 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.9 -6.0 1007 80 89 0.06 543 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.3 -5.3 1006 89 97 0.26 542 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.9 -5.2 1007 89 98 0.17 541 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB -0.5 -5.4 1009 87 95 0.05 543 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW? MKE: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.7 0.1 1009 66 47 0.00 548 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.9 -6.0 1007 80 89 0.06 543 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.3 -5.3 1006 89 97 0.26 542 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.9 -5.2 1007 89 98 0.17 541 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB -0.5 -5.4 1009 87 95 0.05 543 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You have QPF for Peoria please? TUE 12Z 26-FEB 0.0 2.2 1002 67 92 0.02 547 545 TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.3 -2.5 1001 91 96 0.54 540 539 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.2 -5.1 1002 93 96 0.27 538 536 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.5 -5.4 1005 91 86 0.06 540 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.6 -5.7 1008 89 94 0.02 542 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.1 -6.2 1010 81 96 0.03 543 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.1 -6.9 1013 87 96 0.03 545 535 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.4 -5.6 1015 87 88 0.02 547 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro definitely shifted southeast. My original jokingly pessimistic 1-3" call for the QC looking golden. Seasonal trends FTW. you can probably do some better than 3" if the euro holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MKE: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.7 0.1 1009 66 47 0.00 548 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.9 -6.0 1007 80 89 0.06 543 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.3 -5.3 1006 89 97 0.26 542 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.9 -5.2 1007 89 98 0.17 541 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB -0.5 -5.4 1009 87 95 0.05 543 536 How about Muskegon, Geos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 just dumping fatties down during rush hr in chicago. Hard to fathom it, could be tons of power outages, LOT might as well upgrade to Blizzard Warnings right now, what do they have to lose?(sarcasm) 40mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 EURO QPF for DVN please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hard to fathom it, could be tons of power outages, LOT might as well upgrade to Blizzard Warnings right now, what do they have to lose?(sarcasm) 40mph gusts. no no and no ha. Even with lots of QPF looking like 6-8:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DVN TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.8 -1.6 1005 75 89 0.07 544 540 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.8 -6.1 1006 81 95 0.30 541 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.8 -5.0 1007 82 95 0.08 543 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB -1.6 -5.3 1010 83 90 0.02 544 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 no no and no ha. Even with lots of QPF looking like 6-8:1 ratios. Sure I thought this would be 8:1 ratios at best, but it would still be dumping and right around rush hour too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MKE: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.7 0.1 1009 66 47 0.00 548 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.9 -6.0 1007 80 89 0.06 543 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.3 -5.3 1006 89 97 0.26 542 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.9 -5.2 1007 89 98 0.17 541 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB -0.5 -5.4 1009 87 95 0.05 543 536 thanks much.. Tick it north at 12z and the watch will have been justified early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hard to fathom it, could be tons of power outages, LOT might as well upgrade to Blizzard Warnings right now, what do they have to lose?(sarcasm) 40mph gusts. def going to be some power outages if qpf is realized. blizzard no but nasty out indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 thanks much.. Tick it north at 12z and the watch will have been justified early. Watch is definitely justified now for Racine, Kenosha and Walworth Co. I got about an inch on the EURO. So no real change, other than it's a tad colder. UGN TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.2 -0.5 1007 71 47 0.00 547 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.4 -5.5 1005 93 98 0.46 541 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.2 -5.1 1004 93 97 0.36 541 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.3 -5.5 1006 92 95 0.15 540 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.0 -5.4 1008 88 94 0.04 543 536 THU 00Z 28-FEB -0.2 -5.3 1012 86 97 0.02 544 535 THU 06Z 28-FEB -1.0 -6.4 1014 84 92 0.01 546 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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