Natester Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 To be honest, i'm not sure if Cedar Rapids will get much of anything out of this since the models are trending south. I think Cedar Rapids may get only an inch or two of snow and thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On the last storm the NAM was horribly inaccurate in my area at-least with temp profiles. The GGEM, Ukmet, and Euro were the best. RGEM was ok to good. GFS was worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 RGEM and Ukie would be fitting for the QC. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see that verify. NAM has been garbage with the last several systems around here. GFS still delivers 3-6". My original pessimistic call of 1-3" may have been the right call after all. If the Euro goes southeast I'm logging off this site for a long time. You won't want me on here after that lol... Haha, sure... you'd be back in under a week! The SREF is fitting for you too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 0z NMM will most likely back the NAM, which isn't a surprise. Has a nice look where it takes the low NW from eastern AR to SW MO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 First call...2.5" at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Fun progression of p-types for sure. Even get a little of what we know. I guess it's not entirely inconceivable that we fight the transition to rain for a while. Even after sfc temps get above freezing by mid-late morning, there is a layer a little above the surface that hangs right around 0C which might be good enough to mix in some pellets especially during any heavier bursts of precip. It will be interesting to watch the precip type progression if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For what it's worth...0z GFS has 12+ inches from Hamilton into Niagara region with 8-12 inches for much of Southern Ontario . Seems overdone but one has to wonder if this southward trend in 0z model runs may verify. Yeah. Hard to tell where the heaviest snow would be around here. NAM is pretty far north and is almost a complete miss for Hamilton but every other model is south so I'm not too confident about that. I'd still feel a lot safer being closer to, say, Guelph or Cambridge. It'll be tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I probably avg 4 or more hrs a day looking at models and time on here from dec-feb. Pretty poor rate of return on snow. 20 at minimum days wasted online for under 30" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I guess it's not entirely inconceivable that we fight the transition to rain for a while. Even after sfc temps get above freezing by mid-late morning, there is a layer a little above the surface that hangs right around 0C which might be good enough to mix in some pellets especially during any heavier bursts of precip. It will be interesting to watch the precip type progression if nothing else. Another nail biter for nothing amounting to much for LAF. Woo! There's a good reason why BowMe and I drink. Him for the opposite side of the coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 First calll...2.5" at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 RGEM and Ukie would be fitting for the QC. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see that verify. NAM has been garbage with the last several systems around here. GFS still delivers 3-6". My original pessimistic call of 1-3" may have been the right call after all. If the Euro goes southeast I'm logging off this site for a long time. You won't want me on here after that lol... Sounds like a similar situation to here, though your boom potential may be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 First calll...2.5" at ORD. Probably not a bad call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah. Hard to tell where the heaviest snow would be around here. NAM is pretty far north and is almost a complete miss for Hamilton but every other model is south so I'm not too confident about that. I'd still feel a lot safer being closer to, say, Guelph or Cambridge. It'll be tight. Will be really close. If we do manage to stay all snow we could see some pretty good totals as many models show the most QPF around our area. Backed up by HPC as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 00z nam bufkit has almost 2 days of snow for ORD: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 mke office better hope I ride the NAM to lucky victory like I'll Have Another did in the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Way the 00z models are trending me and the NAM pass out before finishing the first long stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nogaps is still riding SE of the pack. It needs to score it's first win ever on this storm. STL and LAF would be very thankful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 ggem must crush Toronto? cirrus here. and at 12z the low was close to valpo lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nogaps is still riding SE of the pack. It needs to score it's first win ever on this storm. STL and LAF would be very thankful. I just saw that, and was thankful it was a SE solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Last call... 1 inch here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I just saw that, and was thankful it was a SE solution. why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 To keep it short and sweet, regarding the watch issuance, myself and the other evening shift were both opposed to issuing a watch for all the reasons that Gino listed here earlier, but our hand was basically forced by MKX hoisting a watch up against us. Even had a preliminary AFD written as to why I wasn't going to issue a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 why? It's the NOGAPs. Of course, on the flip side, the JMA is in more of the Euro/NAM camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 To keep it short and sweet, regarding the watch issuance, myself and the other evening shift were both opposed to issuing a watch for all the reasons that Gino listed here earlier, but our hand was basically forced by MKX hoisting a watch up against us. Even had a preliminary AFD written as to why I wasn't going to issue a watch. But what if your office was right in not issuing a watch and scored a coup when the other offices took theirs down or ended up downgrading to an advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 But what if your office was right in not issuing a watch and scored a coup when the other offices took theirs down or ended up downgrading to an advisory? But but but but, it doesn't matter one bit. That's the point of watches. Its acceptable and pretty common to transition to an advisory after a watch. This storm at worst is going to have an advisory level impact so the Watches are perfectly fine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It's the NOGAPs. Of course, on the flip side, the JMA is in more of the Euro/NAM camp. oh, ok. Thought I heard it has a se bias and when its NW its a red flag or something.. f if i know what i'm talking about or remember reading After the 00z models Weenie thinking has one to believe the euro looks like last night at best up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Will be really close. If we do manage to stay all snow we could see some pretty good totals as many models show the most QPF around our area. Backed up by HPC as well image.jpg Lets see what the euro shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 But what if your office was right in not issuing a watch and scored a coup when the other offices took theirs down or ended up downgrading to an advisory? Go to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Geez the LSX WRF has almost constant snow or atleast snow showers from 39hr-78hr or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro looks like the 12z run so far through 18hrs. Only difference is the new run is wetter in northwest OK, and by a good amount too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 But but but but, it doesn't matter one bit. That's the point of watches. Its acceptable and pretty common to transition to an advisory after a watch. This storm at worst is going to have an advisory level impact so the Watches are perfectly fine.. I have no problem with them sneaking a watch in before the sunday 10pm news. Won't be the first or last time a watch bust or it turns in to the common advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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