Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 0z UKie. 2:25 0z UK 36.gif 2:25 0z UK 48.gif 2:25 0z UK 60.gif 2:25 0z UK 72.gif This actually looks decent....and more like the Euro.....Low placement..not the qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MKX office sweating bullets now. banking on EE with ECMWF trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This actually looks decent....and more like the Euro..... No, no. 0z UK almost whiffs Milwaukee. Euro much much more generous for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This actually looks decent....and more like the Euro.....Low placement..not the qpf.. The EURO at least got the snow into WI! UKMET has been the southern most track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 uk been junk up here all along.. we toss him too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The EURO at least got the snow into WI! UKMET has been the southern most track. Well, the low placements looks much better on the Ukie, at least for S/E Mi, but it is drier for you guys...IDK what to think...Talks about models madness LOL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I guess we should just toss all the 00z's LMAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 At this point ChiWx, you might have better luck if you buy one of those "snow in a can" things, and spray your lawn. I snapped a photo of this today at the grocery store. I'll make a copy and stick it in my wallet. Remembering the good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This actually looks decent....and more like the Euro.....Low placement..not the qpf.. Definitely further south than the Euro. I think the best bet here is to go with a blend of the NAM/GFS/Euro, which I think is what MKE and LOT are doing, which would account for the lack of watches further northwest in Wisconsin and the western counties of Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I snapped a photo of this today at the grocery store. I'll make a copy and stick it in my wallet. Remembering the good times. photo-7.JPG Is that sleet or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 ABC 7 Chicago... ...Not sure how good the mets are on that Ch, but Huih lol "New Microcast data is in and it's showing mainly 3-5" snow totals from the city on north for Tuesday but that's just part of the story. I'll explain after the Oscars" Joke call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 uk been junk up here all along.. we toss him too. You're right, UKIE hasn't been good lately. FWIW, the SREFs and LSX WRF favor bringing nice accums into the area. I have no idea, but this storm will put many model's reputations on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is that sleet or snow? Too white for all sleet, I should know. It's a combination of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I snapped a photo of this today at the grocery store. I'll make a copy and stick it in my wallet. Remembering the good times. photo-7.JPG ...Some sad stuff there..Hope you guys cash in some good snows..Sometimes its pretty sad when you live this far to the north, and you cant get a good snow storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Anyone got the link to the SREF plume data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1006 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013.DISCUSSION...1000 PM CSTEVENING UPDATE...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NWS MILWAUKEE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AM THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR AREASALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 IN ILLINOIS.NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO GRIDS THIS EVENING AS FORECAST ISLARGELY ON TRACK. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR VISIBILITYREDUCTIONS IN FOG AWAY FROM CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND. ALSO GOODRADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD COULD RESULT INSOME LOCATIONS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST.HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WESTEXPECTED TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REALLY BOTTOM OUT LIKELAST NIGHT WHEN STRATUS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE.REGARDING TUESDAY WINTER STORM...SYSTEM IS CERTAINLY IMPRESSIVEAT THIS STAGE WITH HEAVY THUNDERSNOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.IT WILL BE IN A WEAKENING/OCCLUDING STAGE WHEN IT APPROACHES OURAREA...SO WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION AXIS...WE WILL HAVETO RELY ON VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERNAHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN AN APPROXIMATELY 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD FROMMID/LATE TUESDAY MORNING TO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO OVERCOME THEMARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE IN PLACE. STILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGHIMPACT OF THE EVENT ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE WITH PERIODSOF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AND VERY STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST WINDSGUSTING TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKEFRONT...FELT IT WASPRUDENT TO ISSUE A WATCH. NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEALOF UNCERTAINTY GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND MODELS POSSIBLY OVERDOINGQPF TO THIS POINT IN WEAKENING SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST OF WATCHAREA...THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE MIXEDPRECIP AND LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CENTRALIL AND NW INDIANA COUNTIES IN WATCH. MID SHIFT WILL ANALYZE FULLSUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE.RC/KJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You're right, UKIE hasn't been good lately. FWIW, the SREFs and LSX WRF favor bringing nice accums into the area. I have no idea, but this storm will put many model's reputations on the line. biggest euro run of the winter? I should be GM of the Bucks.. would have tossed all the junk before the trade deadline starting with Monta Ellis.. Only the *ucking Bucks would have made that stupid trade they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 biggest euro run of the winter? I should be GM of the Bucks.. would have tossed all the junk before the trade deadline starting with Monta Ellis.. Only the *ucking Bucks would have made that stupid trade they did. Both statements are probably true lol. Skype? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 0z GGEM south. WTF is going on? Color maps are updated: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 0z GGEM south. WTF is going on? I'm sorry, but I think the Euro will leave the NAM a desolate outlier by at least 60-100 miles. The one consideration I have in the NAM's favor is perhaps this is a situation where the higher resolution models (the NAM, short term hi-res models) have an advantage. Does that seem to be a possibility to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Just going to be me and the NAM at the end of 00z.. last two nights off 00z runs haven't been much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 0z GGEM south. WTF is going on? Should we toss that one 2? LOL....Insane how models are supposed to get into better agreement as we get closer to the storm, however the do the opposite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The GGEM did get its update recently.... So there's that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Both statements are probably true lol. Skype? I'll get on closer to the euro.. me and the wife taking turns frying up 15lbs of taco meat for work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm sorry, but I think the Euro will leave the NAM a desolate outlier by at least 60-100 miles. The one consideration I have in the NAM's favor is perhaps this is a situation where the higher resolution models (the NAM, short term hi-res models) have an advantage. Does that seem to be a possibility to you? Maybe. But the RGEM is high resolution too. I don't know, something's spooked these models. NAM goes in the opposite direction, which is so funny. Euro will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The storms is maxing out further south thus it occludes faster. The NAM is really slow with the occlusion. Yeah, the NAM actually starts out further east but ends up NW due to rapid strengthening a bit later on, basically a further east ejection because it happens a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 RGEM and Ukie would be fitting for the QC. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see that verify. NAM has been garbage with the last several systems around here. GFS still delivers 3-6". My original pessimistic call of 1-3" may have been the right call after all. If the Euro goes southeast I'm logging off this site for a long time. You won't want me on here after that lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 0z GGEM south. WTF is going on? Color maps are updated: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Neat to watch the hourly precip type progression on the RGEM. We still need a bump south to get into anything really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Neat to watch the hourly precip type progression on the RGEM. We still need a bump south to get into anything really interesting. Fun progression of p-types for sure. Even get a little of what we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For what it's worth...0z GFS has 12+ inches from Hamilton into Niagara region with 8-12 inches for much of Southern Ontario . Seems overdone but one has to wonder if this southward trend in 0z model runs may verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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